Bob Blog 17 dec

Bob McDavitt's ideas for sailing around the South Pacific.
Disclaimer: Weather is a mix of pattern and chaos; these ideas are from the
patterned world.
Compiled Sunday 17 December 2023

EL NINO dynamic
This El Nino episode may now be at its peak.

The atmospheric SOI values are relaxing..

The Ocean:
The parameter used from the ocean is based on the sea surface temperatures
in the equatorial eastern Pacific and called the NINO 3.4 SST anomaly.
Recent forecasts show that the Sea surface temperature anomalies in the Nino
3.4 area may have peaked and in JFM will start relaxing.

This El Nino has been twined with a positive IOD (Indian Ocean Dipole) with
the combo shifting activity into the mid pacific.
However the IOD has gone thru a relaxation process recently
And so this En Nino may soon start shifting focus more to the east.

TROPICS

JASPER made landfall near Port Douglas, QLD bring damaging wind and rain.
JELIWAT has just formed eats of the Philippines
The MJO, a burst of extra energy in the tropics, is expected to peak over
the Pacific Ocean in the next two weeks.

WEATHER ZONES
The South Pacific Convergence zone is strong near Vanuatu to across
Fiji/Tonga /Samoa to Tahiti region. .

HIGHS and LOWS
Low L1 is expected to form off SE of Sydney by mid-week and travel off to
the SE.
High H1 to NE of North Island is quasi stationary or expected to slowly
creep westwards.
Hight H2 may travel across South Island and bloom east of South Island
briefly then fade.
Trough between H1 and H2 expected to cross North Island on Monday then fade
away.
High H3 to west of Tasmania by mid-week is expected to cross the South
Tasman Sea on Friday and reach east of South Island by Saturday.
Low L2 should form over inland QLD by mid -week and travel SE to be off
Sydney by weekend.
Low L3 is expected to spread SW onto New Caledonia by mid-week then continue
SW and fade in Tasman Sea.

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