Bob Blog 10 Oct

Bob McDavitt's ideas for sailing around the South Pacific.
Disclaimer: Weather is a mix of pattern and chaos; these ideas are from the
patterned world.
Compiled Sunday 10 October 2021

Bureau of Meteorology outlook for coming cyclone season around Australia
From tcoutlook.com/australia/latest-outlook/
Predictors
Recently ENSO has been neutral. Models are now indicating a 67% to 87%
chance of a LA NINA episode from Nov 2021 to Jan 2022neutral conditions. La
Nina typically results in increased cyclone activity in Australia and in the
South Pacific west of the dateline.

In spite of this, the Long-Range Tropical Cyclone Outlook for Australia
(TCO-AU) suggests near-normal cyclone activity around Australia for the Nov
2021 to April 2022 period, with between 8 and 13 cyclones.

TROPICS
TC LIONROCK has been crossing the China Sea and may make landfall onto north
part of Vietnam. KOMPASU has formed east of Manila and is expected to affect
northern Philippines. NAMTHEUN has formed around Micronesia and is expected
to curve off to the northeast.

WEATHER ZONES
SPCZ=South Pacific Convergence zone.
The SPCZ is less active but more spread out than last week.
Active trough between Fiji and Samoa on local Monday is expected reach
Southern Cooks by local Tuesday with Low L1 near 25S and this then moves off
to the southeast leaving a large lull in its wake.

HIGHS and LOWS
High1 north of NZ on Monday is expected to travel northeast to 25S and then
east maintaining a lull in the wake of L1.
Low L2 is expected to form south of NZ in a trough crossing the South Island
on Monday and then deepen to 980 east of South Island on Tuesday/Wednesday
feeding polar chilled southerly winds onto NZ, then moving off to the east.
High H2 should follow L2 and then travel NE of NZ by Saturday, providing
good conditions for arriving in Opua early next week.
Low L3 is expected to travel east across Bass Strait and into the southern
Tasman by the end of the week.
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If you would like more detail for your voyage, then check metbob.com to see
what I offer.
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at bottom).
Weathergram archive (with translator) is at weathergram.blogspot.co.nz.
Contact is bob@metbob.com or txt 64277762212
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