Bob Blog 24 Oct

Bob McDavitt's ideas for sailing around the South Pacific.
Disclaimer: Weather is a mix of pattern and chaos; these ideas are from the
patterned world.

Compiled Sunday 24 October 2021

A DOUBLE DIP LA NINA LIKELY
We had a LA NINA episode last summer, and it now looks likely we are heading
for another LA NINA episode this coming summer.
See
www.scoop.co.nz/stories/WO2110/S00220/pacific-likely-to-experience-double-di
p-la-nina-episode.htm for more details.
During a LA NINA the trade winds are stronger than normal, feeding
sun-drenched warm water westwards. This also increases the upwelling around
the eastern equatorial pacific (EEP), so that sea surface temperatures are
cooler than normal there.
The South Pacific Convergence zone SPCZ is likely to shift to south and west
of normal, from Coral Sea to northern Tonga to southern Cooks.

Having two LA NINA episodes in a row (a "double-dip" LA NINA0 is unusual.

TROPICS
RICK is intensifying and expected to make landfall over west coast of Mexico
on local Monday.

WEATHER ZONES
SPCZ=South Pacific Convergence zone.
The SPCZ stretches from PNG to Tuvalu to Samoa and drifting from Society
Islands to Southern Cooks.
Good trade winds over South Pacific this week.

HIGHS and LOWS
Trough over northern NZ tonight should fade away on Monday.
High H1 has been lingering over Chathams area for a few days and should
travel slowly northeast this week.
Low L1 east of Tasmania is expected to travel east reaching central NZ by
Thursday then northeast across the North Island on Friday, following H1.
High H2 is expected to travel NE to east of South Island late in the week,
following L1.
High H3 is expected to travel east across the northern Tasman Sea from
Tuesday to Saturday.
Low L2 is expected to travel southeast over Tasmania on Friday.
Avoid arriving at Opua on Monday 1 Nov due passing trough followed by
southerlies, or on Wed 3/Thursday 4 Nov due possible strong easterly winds.

>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
If you would like more detail for your voyage, then check metbob.com to see
what I offer.
Or Facebook at /www.facebook.com/metbobnz/
Weathergram with graphics is at metbob.wordpress.com (subscribe/unsubscribe
at bottom).
Weathergram archive (with translator) is at weathergram.blogspot.co.nz.
Contact is bob@metbob.com or txt 64277762212
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>