Bob Blog 31 Oct

Bob McDavitt's ideas for sailing around the South Pacific.
Disclaimer: Weather is a mix of pattern and chaos; these ideas are from the
patterned world.
Compiled Sunday 31 October 2021

REVIEW OF THE LAST MONTH (October 2021)
Sea surface temperature in the eastern equatorial Pacific are showing the
coolness of an incoming LA NINA episode. This is surrounded by a C-shaped
zone of warmth from north of Hawaii to Indonesia to south of French
Polynesia.

Average isobars for past month :Northern Europe is showing seasonal change
with intensification of a High around Siberia. There is a noticeable
weakening of the southern hemisphere subtropical ridge over Australia. The
anomaly map shows there have been lows forming over eastern Australia.

Zooming into the NZ area
The lowering of pressure about and east of Australia is REMARKABLE, as has
been the amount of damaging weather there during October.

TROPICS
WANDA is zigzagging across the North Atlantic.

WEATHER ZONES
SPCZ=South Pacific Convergence zone.
The SPCZ stretches from PNG to northern Vanuatu, to Samoa and drifting
between Tuamotu Islands and Society Islands. A passing trough is expected to
visit Fiji mid-week.

HIGHS and LOWS
High H1 should linger near 35S 140-160W until mid-week then move off to
east.
Low L1 southeast of the South Island is expected to move off to the
southeast, allowing a strong cold southerly onto southern NZ on Monday.
Low 2 is expected to deepen to northeast of North Island by end of Tuesday,
bringing a strong SE flow over the North Island on Wednesday and Thursday.
High H2 east of New South Wales tomorrow is expected to travel southeast
towards Chathams by mid-week, combining with L2 to strengthen SE flow over
North Island.
Avoid arriving in Northland on Wed/Thu this week and on Friday 12 Nov.

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