Bobgram

Bob McDavitt's ideas for sailing around the South Pacific.
Disclaimer: Weather is a mix of pattern and chaos; these ideas are from the
patterned world.
Compiled Sunday 21 January 2024

My regards to those attending the AMS Annual meeting in Baltimore over the
next few days - this year's theme is LIVING IN A CHANGING ENVIRONMENT.
See annual.ametsoc.org/index.cfm/2024/

How much EXTRA energy has been stored in the ocean in 2023?
In 2023 the ocean absorbed 287 zettajoules of heat, an extra 15 zettajoules
of compared with 2022. What is a zettajoule? That is 10^21 joules. Humanity
uses about half a zettajoule of energy a year to fuel the entire global
economy. (The Guardian).

Another way to look this is to see how much energy is found in a typical
tropical cyclone. That seems to be around 6 x 10^14 Watts or 5x10^19 joules
per day, or 25x10^19 joules for a 5-day cyclone. That's .25 Zettajoules.
(from science.howstuffworks.com/)

So, the amount of heat absorbed by oceans last year was equivalent to 70
typical cyclones. More that one a week. Whenever conditions are ripe for
transporting this energy back into the atmosphere via water vapour, it will
express itself as extreme wind and rain.

TROPICS
TC ANGGREK formed in the south Indian Ocean well away from land. Tropical
depression 90P is forming in the Coral Sea and expected to move onto
Queensland later this week. AVOID.

There is a Monsoonal low ~995hPa inland Australia and south of Darwin,
weakening. near Madagascar follows ALVARO, which bothered southern
Madagascar last week.

The MJO, a burst of extra energy in the tropics, is now over Northern
Australia and expected to travel into the South Pacific over next few weeks,
increasing the potential for cyclone formation.

WEATHER ZONES
The South Pacific Convergence zone is strengthening between north Australia
and Vanuatu across the Coral Sea and lapping onto Fiji at times. Tropical
depression P90 is expected to intensify into a cyclone and make landfall
over Queensland late local Thursday.
A subtropical low L1 to south of Tahiti is expected to travel slowly south.
Another subtropical low L3 may form near Fiji mid-week and then travel south
toward NZ.

MID LATITUDES
Low L2 belongs to a trough that is expected to cross NZ on Monday and
Tuesday with scattered rain warnings and then move off to the southeast.
High H1 is expected to cross Tasmania on Monday, then the Tasman Sea on
Tuesday and Wednesday, then central NZ on Thursday and North Island on
Friday.
Low L4 is expected to cross Tasmania on Wednesday and reach southern NZ on
Friday.

>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
If you would like more details about your voyage, then check metbob.com to
see what I offer.
Or Facebook at /www.facebook.com/metbobnz/
Weathergram with graphics is at metbob.wordpress.com (subscribe/unsubscribe
at bottom).
Weathergram archive (with translator) is at weathergram.blogspot.co.nz.
Contact is bob@metbob.com or text 64277762212.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>