Bob Blog 28 Jan

Bob Blog 28 Jan
Bob McDavitt's ideas for sailing around the South Pacific.
Disclaimer: Weather is a mix of pattern and chaos; these ideas are from the
patterned world.

Compiled Sunday 28 January 2024

TROPICS
TANGGREK, and CANDICE are tropical depressions over Indian Ocean and KIRRILY
over inland north Australia. KIRRILY briefly reached Cat 3 before making
landfall near Townsville. These systems contain lots of rain but not much
wind.

The MJO, a burst of extra energy in the tropics, is now crossing the
Pacific, but is rather weak. Three is an increased risk for possible cyclone
development in the Coral Sea this week, and a low may well develop there
after mid-week.

WEATHER ZONES
The South Pacific Convergence zone is active and squally over the Coral Sea
and Vanuatu /Fiji with another branch lingering from Tonga across Southern
Cooks and Tahiti area.

Low L1 is expected to form near 30S and south of Tahiti by mid-week and then
go south.

Low L2 is expected to be a merger of troughs from Fiji and another from NZ
and should move off the south.

Low L3 is part of the monsoonal trough now sitting over northern Australia.

Low L4 might form between Vanuatu and Fiji this weekend and go east towards
Tonga along the SPCZ.

Low L5 is expected to travel east along 53S past the south of NZ on Saturday
3 Feb followed by large swells in the Tasman Sea. Avoid.

HIGH H1 should persist to south of L1, strengthening the easterly flow
between L1 and H1.

HIGH H2 should travel east and bring settled weather to NZ between 4 and 7
Feb for our national day.

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