Bob Blog

Bob McDavitt's ideas for sailing around the South Pacific.
Disclaimer: Weather is a mix of pattern and chaos; these ideas are from the
patterned world.
Compiled Sunday 7 January 2024

A review of last month's weather
Here is a link to a YouTube clip giving an animated loop of the isobars and
streamlines in the South Pacific for the last month at youtu.be/vleK8qYfAZ8
During early December a MJO period helped activate Tropical cyclone JASPER
that made land fall between around 12 December Cairns and Port Douglas with
record breaking rain.
The remainder of the month was relatively quiet.

Sea Surface temperature anomalies from psl.noaa.gov/map/clim/sst.shtml
There is now a stretch of warner than normal sea from Queensland to the
dateline northeast of NZ.
This may well herald a cyclone path over next few weeks.

Average isobars for past month (below)
The Siberian HIGH has expanded and intensified. In the Southern Hemisphere,
the subtropical ridge remains in the Australian Bight and has shifted south
of New Caledonia. It appears to be slightly weaker than last month. A heat
trough has developed over mainland Australia.

Pressure anomalies for past month (below)
Pressures are now higher than normal over Russia and into the NW Pacific.
The South Pacific Sub tropical ridge is well marked don to around 50S. the
South Pacific convergence zone is weak.

Zooming into the NZ area
The 1015 isobar has shifted south across Australia and New Zealand., also to
south of New Caledonia.

TROPICS
TC ALVARO, the first of 2024, brought heavy rain and strong winds to
southern Madagascar after forming over the Mozambique Channel
The MJO, a burst of extra energy in the tropics, is moving from Indian Ocean
towards NW Australia over next few weeks. next few weeks.

WEATHER ZONES
The South Pacific Convergence zone is weak and mainly between Vanuatu and
Samoa with another branch about the Southern Cooks.

HIGHS and LOWS
Quirt week ahead.
HIGH H1 is lingering east of NZ.
Low L1 is crossing Tasmania tonight and deepening in South Tasman on
Tuesday/Wednesday and South Island on Thursday /Friday.
Low L2 east of Niue tonight is expected to travel off to the SE next few
days.
Low L3 is expected to form southeast of New Caledonia by mid-week and then
travel SW towards Lord Howe by Friday then maybe SE reaching NZ over the
weekend.
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If you would like more details about your voyage, then check metbob.com to
see what I offer.
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at bottom).
Weathergram archive (with translator) is at weathergram.blogspot.co.nz.
Contact is bob@metbob.com or text 64277762212.
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