Bob Blog 6 October

Bob McDavitt's ideas for sailing around the South Pacific.
Disclaimer: Weather is a mix of pattern and chaos; these ideas are
from the patterned world.
Compiled Sunday 6 October 2024

A review of last month's weather
Here is a link to a YouTube clip giving an animated loop of the
isobars and streamlines in the South Pacific for the last month at
youtu.be/aB6kMuWLNKQ

The main pattern for September was a migratory HIGH travelling east
along around 25 to 35S followed by a trough or two, sometime three
with disturbed westerly wind south of 40S.


The tropics in the South Pacific were quiet.

Sea Surface temperature anomalies from psl.noaa.gov/map/clam/sst.shtml

The Kuroshio current is now retesting after crossing the entire north
pacific last month.
Will someone show the latest North Atlantic Sea surface map to the
candidates for US leader
as one of them seems to think this month's cyclones are abnormally
late.

And the weaker cool tongue along the Pacific equator os a sign that
the incoming La Nina is stuttering.

Average isobars for past month

During September the Monsoon spread east across Asia.
Being an equinoctial month the subtropical ridges in both hemispheres
strengthened.

Pressure anomalies for past month (below)
The anomaly pressure pattern for September shows ridging over the
North Sea and troughing over South America, a total reversal of last
month.
The southern 1015 line has stayed from about Tasmania to Gisborne.
The northern 1015 line has shifted to south of Darwin. a sign that
winter is over there.

TROPICS
Around 200 people perished in flooding and other storm-related
disasters as Hurricane Helene ravaged Florida and other parts of the
southeastern United States. .

Hurricane John caused at least five deaths as it made a second
landfall in Mexico's Guerrero state.

. Hurricanes Isaac and Joyce, and Tropical Storm Kirk, churned the
Atlantic.

.LESLIE is in mid Atlantic and MILTON ins in the Gulf of Mexico.

. Typhoon Krathon lashed Taiwan.

. Typhoon Jebi skirted northeastern Japan.

. ANCHA is the first named storm in the southern hemisphere after the
equinox (the South Indian Ocean cyclone season has a nominal start of
15 November0.

WEATHER ZONES
The wind accumulation shows the light wind area associated with H1 and
some weak squash zone around the Cook Islands, along with gaps between
them
It also shows lots of wind NE of NZ later this week from L2, but a gap
of OK winds emanating north from Northland, NZ.

The South Pacific Convergence zone is sitting over Solomon Islands and
extends to Rotuma and Samoa and then to the southeast across Southern
Cooks. A trough and low L2 tis expected to form over Vanuatu on
Thursday and then travel SE to be pass by eastern North Island on
Friday /Saturday 11/12 Oct. Avoid.

Travelling to Australia: Looks OK this week, but for a southerly
change at Brisbane on Wednesday, and another over the weekend and
southerly swells to 3m as north as 25S on Monday 14 Oct. SPCZ might
start shifting south next week across Vanuatu.

HIGHS and LOWS

HIGH H1 has been blocking movement and remains near 35S to south of
Tahiti.

Low L1 is zipping quickly along 50S passing by southern NZ on
Wednesday. NZ has a showery NW flow on Monday/Tuesday, a squally
Wednesday, a southerly flow for Thursday then mainly sunny with a
passing High H2 over centre of NZ by Friday.

L2 forms between Norfolk and Raoul near 30S on Friday and deepens and
it passes by eastern North Island on Saturday. Avoid.

For New Caledonia: The trough associated with L2 is expected to bring
a southerly change late Tuesday. The HIGH H2 moving along 30S into the
Tasman Sea after L2 is expected to develop a squash zone of strong SE
winds near New Caledonia and in the Coral Sea from Wednesday to
Saturday. Avoid.

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