Bobgram 27 oct

Bob McDavitt's ideas for sailing around the South Pacific.
Disclaimer: Weather is a mix of pattern and chaos; these ideas are
from the patterned world.
Compiled Sunday 27October 2024

Palolo Rising

Mid last week on24 October, on the last quarter of the October moon,
the tides are just right for the palolo coral warms to break off their
eggs and sperm sacs so that they float out of the coral reefs in a
swarm to fertilize their new generation. Several Pacific Islands
gather in the early morning in their lagoons to gather a feast of this
caviar,

Even though this annual delicacy could have been made available for
the CHOGM 2024 dinner in Samos this weekend, it didn't feature.

A little bird tells me that King Charles III enjoyed seasonal produce
throughout the meal, set to include a salad of marinated local
vegetables with lopa beans, carrot, and watercress hummus.

The King and Queen dined on line-caught red snapper, wilted laupele,
breadfruit fondants, and confit tomatoes. For dessert, attendees to
the dinner had coconut jam cheesecake, fresh mango, and papaya, along
with Samoan vanilla ice creams.

WATHER ZONES

A MJO event is now moving into the Pacific and boosting the ITCZ near
Micronesia. One yacht at 3S on the north coast of New Ireland has
witnessed two occasions of equatorial westerly winds that, around
25kt. These have NOT been picked up by the models.

The South Pacific convergence zone SPCZ extends from Solomons to
Northern Vanuatu and a boost of squally showers is expected to form
over Vanuatu on Tuesday and then travel southeast to the Minerva area
on Wednesday then further southeast and may form a low near 40S on
Thursday .

HIGH H1 is moved over northern NZ late last week, followed by a front
this weekend. This system is moving steadily off to the east past this
week, and the lows over southern NZ and moving off to the south.
leaving a disturbed westerly flow over northern NZ.

A new LowL1 is expected to travel quickly along 50S to be near central
NZ by Tuesday night with associated trough crossing Northland. Avoid.

Later in the week HIGH H2 I expected to travel east across the Tasman
Sea along 30S producing a large calm area, not good for sailing. And
next weekend this may be followed by another HIGH H3along 30S. So
early next week when H3 departs to the east there may be a good
pattern from getting from the tropics to NZ in the northerly on the
back of a HIGH.

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