Bobgram 20 Oct 2024

Bob McDavitt's ideas for sailing around the South Pacific.
Disclaimer: Weather is a mix of pattern and chaos; these ideas are
from the patterned world.
Compiled Sunday 20October 2024

The Greening of Antarctica
Antarctic Peninsula is greening at an increasing rate , mainly due to
the growth of mosses
As seen at www.nature.com/articles/s41561-024-01564-5


TROPICS
My normal sources are out of date today, so this is a snatch from
Windy.com (thanks) showing Nadine over southern Mexico and Oscar to
northeast of Cuba.

WATHER ZONES

The wind accumulation shows several zones of strong wind this week
from L1 and L3 .
Also some nice green areas west of New Caledonia and between Fiji and
New Zealand.

A MJO event is expected to move into the Pacific over the next few
weeks. This MIGHT help trigger a cyclone near Philippines (there is a
depression there mow), but us probably too early in y=the season to
trigger a cyclone in the South Pacific. The next MJO evet is due
around early to mid-December so that maybe delays the start of our
cyclone season.

The South Pacific Convergence zone is building and expected to send a
dose of squally showers to northern Vanuatu on Wednesday, Fuji on
Thursday and Tonga on Friday. However, the activity stays mainly aloft
this week, unlike the activity last week which formed a low L1 last
few days near Minerva. This low is now travelling off the SE, allowing
the HIGH H1 in the south Tasman Sea to spread onto northern NZ by
mid-week and then move off to the east after Thursday.

The Low L2 now stalled near Lord Howe Island is losing its upper
support and is expected to travel NE and fade away.

It has "stolen" the isobars wets of New Caledonia, making a large lull
zone there, but this should be replaced by SW winds on the back side
of L2.

Low L3 os currently over the hot interior of Australia and expected to
eek its way across the coast and into the Tasman se on Thursday,
creating a southerly buster along the east coast (avoid).

L3 is expected to deepen as it crosses central or southern NZ between
Friday and Sunday. Just in time to ruin our long holiday weekend.
Associated FRONT expected to cross Northland around Friday night
(avoid arriving in Northland then) ,in time to interfere with our
COASTAL CLASSIC yacht race from Auckland to bay of Islands.

This race may well be bigger than usual this year since Team NZ won
again the Americas Cup last night.

After L3 moves off around Mon 28 oct, a new HIGH H3 is expected to
follow it across Tasman Sea and onto NZ. This may keep the next trough
away until around 31 Oct /

.

Travelling to Australia: Avoid L3 and its southerly buster on Thursday
and Friday.

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