Bob McDavitt’s ideas for sailing around the South Pacific.
Disclaimer: Weather is a mix of pattern and chaos; these ideas are from the patterned world.
Compiled Sun 25 Oct 2020
Southwest Pacific Tropical Cyclone Outlook
The NIWA and MetService assessment of named tropical cyclone (TC) activity indicates 8 to 10 named TCs could occur in the Southwest Pacific basin between November 2020 and April 2021.
We are having a La Nina. At present, sea surface temperature anomalies across the eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean are cool (negative) while the central equatorial Pacific Ocean has recently been trending toward cool conditions.
For the coming season, important differences are expected between the western and eastern halves of the Southwest Pacific basin and also for early and late season activity. Elevated TC presence is expected in and around the Coral Sea and north Tasman Sea, especially during the late season between February and April. Reduced TC activity is expected east of the International Dateline. The potential start to cyclone activity may occur close to or after the New Year.
New Caledonia is expected to get the greatest TC activity. Near normal activity is expected for Tokelau, Fiji, Vanuatu, the Solomon Islands and Papua New Guinea. Normal or slightly reduced activity is expected for Tonga, Wallis & Futuna, and Samoa.
For the coming season, the risk for an ex-tropical cyclone affecting New Zealand is considered above normal. If an ex-tropical cyclone comes close to the country, there is a near-equal probability of it tracking to either the east or west of the North Island, and landfall of a degrading ex-tropical cyclone is possible.
For more details, see
The Tropics
Three active cyclones today, Saudel near China, Molave over Philippines, and Epsilon in North Atlantic. Zones of high potential for formation are around Micronesia and east-central America coastaround the Philippines and the Mexican East coast.
SPCZ is expected to stretch from Solomon Islands to Samoa then southeast to French Polynesia
Convergence zone/passing trough/low forming over Samoa by mid-week then travelling southeast to Sothern Cooks and maybe parts of French Polynesia.
HIGH 1030 to 1022hpa east of north Island near 160W drifting north and weakening away by mid week. Another High 1034 to 1026hPa travelling across South Tasman Sea at 50-S Monday to midweek, then weaker along east coast South Island, travelling to NE.
Front over South Island on Monday, weakening over North Island on Tuesday.
Low forming off Australian coast on Wednesday near 35S then going SSE to south of NZ by Fri, with a front over South Island on Friday.
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Contact is bob@metbob.com or txt 6427 7762212
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