Bob McDavitt's ideas for sailing around the South Pacific.
Disclaimer: Weather is a mix of pattern and chaos; these ideas are
from the patterned world.
Compiled Sunday 21 April 2024
SOI is changing.
It's now official. The El Nino of last year is now over and we are in
neutral territory. El Nino is the name given to the period when sea
surface temperatures over the eastern equatorial Pacific are above
normal. A good measure of this is the Nino 3.4 index. The graph shown
here from the Bureau of Meteorology, Australia has the Nino 3.4
measurements and calculated trends from an ensemble of computer
models. Neutral conditions are in the offering for winter and spring,
and there may be a swing to La Nina next summer,
The SOI or Southern Oscillation index comes directly from the isobars
found on a weather map. It measures the difference in barometric
pressure readings between Tahiti and Darwin, basically giving an idea
of the strength of the trade winds.
It has been in El Nino (negative) territory since last May, and has
relaxed to neutral in the past month.
Climate experts say that the relaxing of the El Nino help them
determine if the recent unprecedented high temperatures worldwide have
been due to accelerated climate change or not. NOAA predicts there is
an 85% chance the El Niño warmth will be gone sometime before June,
while Australia's Bureau of Meteorology says the tropical Pacific sea
surface already "cooled substantially" during mid April. The absence
of that heat will reduce the vertical wind shear that typically
squashes hurricane and tropical storm development in the Atlantic
Basin, possibly leading to a very active hurricane season.
During the "neutral" period for the next few months the weather is
likely to swing from one pattern to another, allowing variety as each
pattern gets to "play" for a short time. I call this "weather Jazz"
TROPICS
It is a quiet time with no named cyclones. There is a weak MJO
crossing the Pacific longitudes this week, and a slight increase is
cyclone potential around New Caledonia.
WEATHER ZONES
It's a busy weather map this week with four lows: 2 in the tropics and
2 in the mid- latitudes.
The South Pacific Convergence zone is active between New Caledonia and
Southern Cooks, and is breeding tropical lows, as is typical during an
MJO pulse. Low L1 is expected to form south of Fiji on Monday and then
travel east and fade away over Niue area by mid-week. Low L2 is
currently in the Coral Sea and expected to deepen over New Caledonia
mid-week and then travel SE to the east of NZ by weekend. Avoid.
HIGHS and LOWS
Low 3 travelled over northern NZ in past few days and is moving off to
the SE.
HIGH H1 is in the Tasman Sea and expected to travel across northern NZ
mid-week and then move off to the east along 35 to 40 South.,
shepherding L2 towards SE of NZ by weekend.
Low L4 is expected to cross Tasmania on Wednesday and its associated
trough should cross NZ on Thursday and Friday and connect with L2 then
to north of NZ. Avoid.
If planning a Trans Tasman trip then work in with H1.
If planning to sail from NZ to tropics wait until after L2.
Panama to Marquesas: Northerly winds for starters. Doldrums between
6N and 2N with erratic winds and squally showers.
.>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
If you would like more details about your voyage, then check
metbob.com to see what I offer.
Or Facebook at /www.facebook.com/metbobnz/
Weathergram with graphics is at metbob.wordpress.com
(subscribe/unsubscribe at bottom).
Weathergram archive (with translator) is at
weathergram.blogspot.co.nz.
Contact is bob@metbob.com or text 64277762212.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
21 April 2024
14 April 2024
Bobgram 14 April
Bob McDavitt's ideas for sailing around the South Pacific.
Disclaimer: Weather is a mix of pattern and chaos; these ideas are
from the patterned world.
Compiled Sunday 14 April 2024
A review of the cyclone season
A time-map shows the cyclones that affected the Australian and South
pacific regions during the cyclone season that started on 1 November
2023 and ends on 30 April 2024.
VANUATU had a hard time in 2023 with three severe storms: Judy and
Kevin in March, then Lola in October. Then in November Mal brought
some minor damage to Fiji.
During this cyclone season none bothered New Zealand (unlike last
season). The main damaging cyclones this season were around Australia.
This was an El Nino year, and such years are sometimes "below par" for
tropical cyclones in NZ.
It is interesting to compare these cyclone clusters and damaging
cyclones with the passing MJO (Madden Julian Oscillation) pulses,
shown here as blue zones in the OLR (outgoing longwave radiation)
anomalies, from
www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/mjoupdate.pdf.
Basically, the denser the tropical clouds, the lesser is the satellite
measured OLR. We had four MJO pulses is the past cyclone season, and
each triggered a severe cyclone within the Australian area,
When a MJO pulse arrives in our part of the world, there is a higher
tendency for tropical cyclones to be triggered. It is just a tendency
- it doesn't always work--and cyclones can form without the MJO --,
but it is a useful indicator, as shown in the MJO's we had this season
and the main cyclones that affected Australia.
TROPICS
Cyclone Olga attained Category-4 force over the Eastern Indian Ocean.
. Tropical Storm Paul spun up briefing in the Coral Sea.
WEATHER ZONES
The South Pacific Convergence zone is being rebuilt in the Coral Sea
to north of Fiji and has an active zone across central areas of French
Polynesia until mid-week. Avoid.
HIGHS and LOWS
The low that travelled over central NZ last few days is now moving off
to the east and by mid-week a new low L1 is expected to form well
south of Niue and then move off the southeast following the former
Low.
Part of HIGH H1 is travelling east along 30 to 35S past the north of
NZ next few days and weakening. Later this week it is expected to be
followed by the remainder of H1.
A trough is expected to form along East Australian coast on Thursday
and then cross the Tasman Sea and NZ on Friday followed by strong SW
flow on Saturday.
Then, High H2 is expected to travel from Australian bight into the
Tasman Sea by end of the week.
Panama to Marquesas:
Some good northerly winds for starters until mid-week, then just light
winds until Friday 26 April.
Doldrums between 5N and equator, occasionally squally west of 100W and
between 7N and 3N.
Also, west of 100W as far as 125W is a mirror ITCZ between 3S and 8S.
.>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
If you would like more details about your voyage, then check
metbob.com to see what I offer.
Or Facebook at /www.facebook.com/metbobnz/
Weathergram with graphics is at metbob.wordpress.com
(subscribe/unsubscribe at bottom).
Weathergram archive (with translator) is at
weathergram.blogspot.co.nz.
Contact is bob@metbob.com or text 64277762212.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
Disclaimer: Weather is a mix of pattern and chaos; these ideas are
from the patterned world.
Compiled Sunday 14 April 2024
A review of the cyclone season
A time-map shows the cyclones that affected the Australian and South
pacific regions during the cyclone season that started on 1 November
2023 and ends on 30 April 2024.
VANUATU had a hard time in 2023 with three severe storms: Judy and
Kevin in March, then Lola in October. Then in November Mal brought
some minor damage to Fiji.
During this cyclone season none bothered New Zealand (unlike last
season). The main damaging cyclones this season were around Australia.
This was an El Nino year, and such years are sometimes "below par" for
tropical cyclones in NZ.
It is interesting to compare these cyclone clusters and damaging
cyclones with the passing MJO (Madden Julian Oscillation) pulses,
shown here as blue zones in the OLR (outgoing longwave radiation)
anomalies, from
www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/mjoupdate.pdf.
Basically, the denser the tropical clouds, the lesser is the satellite
measured OLR. We had four MJO pulses is the past cyclone season, and
each triggered a severe cyclone within the Australian area,
When a MJO pulse arrives in our part of the world, there is a higher
tendency for tropical cyclones to be triggered. It is just a tendency
- it doesn't always work--and cyclones can form without the MJO --,
but it is a useful indicator, as shown in the MJO's we had this season
and the main cyclones that affected Australia.
TROPICS
Cyclone Olga attained Category-4 force over the Eastern Indian Ocean.
. Tropical Storm Paul spun up briefing in the Coral Sea.
WEATHER ZONES
The South Pacific Convergence zone is being rebuilt in the Coral Sea
to north of Fiji and has an active zone across central areas of French
Polynesia until mid-week. Avoid.
HIGHS and LOWS
The low that travelled over central NZ last few days is now moving off
to the east and by mid-week a new low L1 is expected to form well
south of Niue and then move off the southeast following the former
Low.
Part of HIGH H1 is travelling east along 30 to 35S past the north of
NZ next few days and weakening. Later this week it is expected to be
followed by the remainder of H1.
A trough is expected to form along East Australian coast on Thursday
and then cross the Tasman Sea and NZ on Friday followed by strong SW
flow on Saturday.
Then, High H2 is expected to travel from Australian bight into the
Tasman Sea by end of the week.
Panama to Marquesas:
Some good northerly winds for starters until mid-week, then just light
winds until Friday 26 April.
Doldrums between 5N and equator, occasionally squally west of 100W and
between 7N and 3N.
Also, west of 100W as far as 125W is a mirror ITCZ between 3S and 8S.
.>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
If you would like more details about your voyage, then check
metbob.com to see what I offer.
Or Facebook at /www.facebook.com/metbobnz/
Weathergram with graphics is at metbob.wordpress.com
(subscribe/unsubscribe at bottom).
Weathergram archive (with translator) is at
weathergram.blogspot.co.nz.
Contact is bob@metbob.com or text 64277762212.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
07 April 2024
Bob Blog 7 April
Bob McDavitt's ideas for sailing around the South Pacific.
Disclaimer: Weather is a mix of pattern and chaos; these ideas are
from the patterned world.
Compiled Sunday 7 April 2024
A review of last month's weather
Here is a link to a YouTube clip giving an animated loop of the
isobars and streamlines in the South Pacific for the last month at
youtu.be/xT9TJdZYcwE
March was a quiet month in the South Pacific tropics. There was a
brief MJO in the middle of the month which rejiggered cyclone NEVILLE
off NW Australia and MEGAN which peaked in western Gulf of
Carpentaria.
The SST pattern shows more yellow/red than blue when looking at
anomalies using the 30yer ending 2020 as the base. That, in itself,
shows global warming. Regionally, there is some cool waters showing
off the Galapagos, a sign of the beginning of a swing from El Nino to
La Nina. Also. the sea around NZ is returning to about normal and
there is a swath of below normal around 20S across the South Pacific.
Average isobars for past month (below)
During March the subtropical ridges in both hemispheres were well
marked.
The anomaly pressure pattern for March shows high pressured over Aus
Bight ad Tasman Sea , and low pressures east of NZ, thus a
predominance of SW winds over NZ. It was still through to SE of Tahiti
but the remainder of SPCZ was around normal.
Last month
The 1015 isobar has shifted north over Australia from 37S to 30S
,showing the seasonal shift in the subtropical ridge.
The Antarctic high has increased from 1010 to 1030 so the isobars are
squeezed closer together around 50S.
TROPICS
Cyclone Gamane killed at least 18 people in Madagascar and triggered
severe flooding that partially submerged villages on March 27.
OLGA is moving SW off the NW Australian coast.
WEATHER ZONES
The South Pacific Convergence zone is being rebuilt in the Coral Sea.
And has an active branch between Tonga and Tahiti. A tropical low L1
is likely to form on this branch late this week and travel south.
HIGHS and LOWS
HIGH H1 near Chatham Islands is expected to drift slowly east along
40S and reach a peak of 1036 on Thursday. It should have a squash zone
of enhanced easterly winds on its northern side between 20 and 25S
with swells over 3m. Avoid.
There is a trough off NSW (it brought flooding around Sydney on
Friday). It is expected to develop a low L2 near 160E on Tuesday. The
trough is preceded by strong NE to NW winds over NZ on Tuesday and
Wednesday, may be accompanied by rain on Thursday and Friday, and
followed by southerlies on Friday night and Saturday. Avoid.
HIGH H2 is moving in from the west along 40S and expected to reach
central Tasman Sea by Saturday.
Panama to Marquesas:
Avoid departing on Tuesday as it may be squally. Then Wednesday and
Thursday may only have light wind. From Friday a period of goo looking
northerly winds is expected to last to around Sat 20 April, good to
go, but showery from 7N to 5N.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
If you would like more details about your voyage, then check
metbob.com to see what I offer.
Or Facebook at /www.facebook.com/metbobnz/
Weathergram with graphics is at metbob.wordpress.com
(subscribe/unsubscribe at bottom).
Weathergram archive (with translator) is at
weathergram.blogspot.co.nz.
Contact is bob@metbob.com or text 64277762212.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
Disclaimer: Weather is a mix of pattern and chaos; these ideas are
from the patterned world.
Compiled Sunday 7 April 2024
A review of last month's weather
Here is a link to a YouTube clip giving an animated loop of the
isobars and streamlines in the South Pacific for the last month at
youtu.be/xT9TJdZYcwE
March was a quiet month in the South Pacific tropics. There was a
brief MJO in the middle of the month which rejiggered cyclone NEVILLE
off NW Australia and MEGAN which peaked in western Gulf of
Carpentaria.
The SST pattern shows more yellow/red than blue when looking at
anomalies using the 30yer ending 2020 as the base. That, in itself,
shows global warming. Regionally, there is some cool waters showing
off the Galapagos, a sign of the beginning of a swing from El Nino to
La Nina. Also. the sea around NZ is returning to about normal and
there is a swath of below normal around 20S across the South Pacific.
Average isobars for past month (below)
During March the subtropical ridges in both hemispheres were well
marked.
The anomaly pressure pattern for March shows high pressured over Aus
Bight ad Tasman Sea , and low pressures east of NZ, thus a
predominance of SW winds over NZ. It was still through to SE of Tahiti
but the remainder of SPCZ was around normal.
Last month
The 1015 isobar has shifted north over Australia from 37S to 30S
,showing the seasonal shift in the subtropical ridge.
The Antarctic high has increased from 1010 to 1030 so the isobars are
squeezed closer together around 50S.
TROPICS
Cyclone Gamane killed at least 18 people in Madagascar and triggered
severe flooding that partially submerged villages on March 27.
OLGA is moving SW off the NW Australian coast.
WEATHER ZONES
The South Pacific Convergence zone is being rebuilt in the Coral Sea.
And has an active branch between Tonga and Tahiti. A tropical low L1
is likely to form on this branch late this week and travel south.
HIGHS and LOWS
HIGH H1 near Chatham Islands is expected to drift slowly east along
40S and reach a peak of 1036 on Thursday. It should have a squash zone
of enhanced easterly winds on its northern side between 20 and 25S
with swells over 3m. Avoid.
There is a trough off NSW (it brought flooding around Sydney on
Friday). It is expected to develop a low L2 near 160E on Tuesday. The
trough is preceded by strong NE to NW winds over NZ on Tuesday and
Wednesday, may be accompanied by rain on Thursday and Friday, and
followed by southerlies on Friday night and Saturday. Avoid.
HIGH H2 is moving in from the west along 40S and expected to reach
central Tasman Sea by Saturday.
Panama to Marquesas:
Avoid departing on Tuesday as it may be squally. Then Wednesday and
Thursday may only have light wind. From Friday a period of goo looking
northerly winds is expected to last to around Sat 20 April, good to
go, but showery from 7N to 5N.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
If you would like more details about your voyage, then check
metbob.com to see what I offer.
Or Facebook at /www.facebook.com/metbobnz/
Weathergram with graphics is at metbob.wordpress.com
(subscribe/unsubscribe at bottom).
Weathergram archive (with translator) is at
weathergram.blogspot.co.nz.
Contact is bob@metbob.com or text 64277762212.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
31 March 2024
Bob Blog 31 March 2024
Bob McDavitt's ideas for sailing around the South Pacific.
Disclaimer: Weather is a mix of pattern and chaos; these ideas are
from the patterned world.
Compiled Sunday 31 March 2024
Just a brief blog this evening…. Have been busy getting my expenses
paid in time as the financial year crashes out mid Easter (ouch)
Congratulations to Dr Jim Salinger fir being declared (Kiwibank's)
NEW ZEALANDER OF THE YEAR 2024.
He has been advocating the need to act to mitigate climate change
since '75 , 50 years of mahi.
TROPICS
Category-2 Cyclone Gamane passed by the northern tip of Madagascar
with high winds and heavy rain before taking aim on Réunion and
Mauritius. • No features around at end of March/start of April
(nothing in that department to carry forward to the new financial
year)
The MJO pattern is now reforming in the Indian Ocea, We should have a
few quiet weeks in the South Pacific , but there may be one last
chance for an increase in tropical activity around mid-April before
the nominal end of this cyclone season.
WEATHER ZONES
The South Pacific Convergence zone is weakening and extends from
northern Coral Sea across Vanuatu and norther Fiji /Tonga towards
Suwarrow.
HIGHS and LOWS
The Low east of NZ is now moving off and pressures are rising as
autumnal HIGH H1 moves from Tasman Sea, across central NZ on Tuesday
then slowly off to the East.
There is a trough lurking off to southeast of French Polynesia near
Pitcairn. Avoid.
There is also a well-developed "mirror ITCZ" near 5S. 100-160W,
Low L! is expected to move across Tasmania on Tuesday and its
associated FRONT should cross NZ on Thursday and Friday.
HIGH H2 in Australian bight is expected to cross Tasmania on Friday
and reach southern NZ this weekend.
A Low is expected to form near Lord Howe Island on Saturday/Sunday
6/7 April. Avoid.
Please to remember the change back to standard time in Australia and
NZ on Sunday 7 April.
3am DT->2am Standard time, so by repeating an hour we have a 25hour
day.
Panama to Marquesas:
Best day this week for a sailing departure from Panama is Monday 1
April, and then it may be good again for sailing on Wednesday 10
April.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
If you would like more details about your voyage, then check
metbob.com to see what I offer.
Or Facebook at /www.facebook.com/metbobnz/
Weathergram with graphics is at metbob.wordpress.com
(subscribe/unsubscribe at bottom).
Weathergram archive (with translator) is at
weathergram.blogspot.co.nz.
Contact is bob@metbob.com or text 64277762212.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
Disclaimer: Weather is a mix of pattern and chaos; these ideas are
from the patterned world.
Compiled Sunday 31 March 2024
Just a brief blog this evening…. Have been busy getting my expenses
paid in time as the financial year crashes out mid Easter (ouch)
Congratulations to Dr Jim Salinger fir being declared (Kiwibank's)
NEW ZEALANDER OF THE YEAR 2024.
He has been advocating the need to act to mitigate climate change
since '75 , 50 years of mahi.
TROPICS
Category-2 Cyclone Gamane passed by the northern tip of Madagascar
with high winds and heavy rain before taking aim on Réunion and
Mauritius. • No features around at end of March/start of April
(nothing in that department to carry forward to the new financial
year)
The MJO pattern is now reforming in the Indian Ocea, We should have a
few quiet weeks in the South Pacific , but there may be one last
chance for an increase in tropical activity around mid-April before
the nominal end of this cyclone season.
WEATHER ZONES
The South Pacific Convergence zone is weakening and extends from
northern Coral Sea across Vanuatu and norther Fiji /Tonga towards
Suwarrow.
HIGHS and LOWS
The Low east of NZ is now moving off and pressures are rising as
autumnal HIGH H1 moves from Tasman Sea, across central NZ on Tuesday
then slowly off to the East.
There is a trough lurking off to southeast of French Polynesia near
Pitcairn. Avoid.
There is also a well-developed "mirror ITCZ" near 5S. 100-160W,
Low L! is expected to move across Tasmania on Tuesday and its
associated FRONT should cross NZ on Thursday and Friday.
HIGH H2 in Australian bight is expected to cross Tasmania on Friday
and reach southern NZ this weekend.
A Low is expected to form near Lord Howe Island on Saturday/Sunday
6/7 April. Avoid.
Please to remember the change back to standard time in Australia and
NZ on Sunday 7 April.
3am DT->2am Standard time, so by repeating an hour we have a 25hour
day.
Panama to Marquesas:
Best day this week for a sailing departure from Panama is Monday 1
April, and then it may be good again for sailing on Wednesday 10
April.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
If you would like more details about your voyage, then check
metbob.com to see what I offer.
Or Facebook at /www.facebook.com/metbobnz/
Weathergram with graphics is at metbob.wordpress.com
(subscribe/unsubscribe at bottom).
Weathergram archive (with translator) is at
weathergram.blogspot.co.nz.
Contact is bob@metbob.com or text 64277762212.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
24 March 2024
Bobgram
Bob McDavitt's ideas for sailing around the South Pacific.
Disclaimer: Weather is a mix of pattern and chaos; these ideas are
from the patterned world.
Compiled Sunday 24 March 2024
Saturday 23 March 2024 was World Meteorological Day.
The theme this year is AT THE FRONTLINE OF CLIMATE CHANGE
They have just completed a report of the state of the climate at the
end of 2023
This can be seen at youtu.be/ES7eKWRRJ0o
The report starts with the alarming record breaking of a warming
planet but ends with the hope of rapidly increasing sustainable energy
sources, reducing emissions, and increasing investment in climate
adaptation.
TROPICS
Late reports from Mozambique say Tropical Storm Filipo killed one
person and injured seven others when it passed through the south of
the country during the previous week.
. Category-2 Cyclone Megan swamped a remote part of far northern
Australia, along the coast of the Gulf of Carpentaria.
. Tropical Storm Neville strengthened to hurricane force over the
eastern Indian Ocean.
The MJO pattern moved over the South Pacific last week and is still
around this week, but nothing much has been triggered. We can now
expect a few quiet weeks in the tropical South Pacific, and there is
still time for another MJO cycle in mid-April before ethe normal end
of this cyclone season.
WEATHER ZONES
The South Pacific Convergence zone is starting to weaken and narrow
and stretches from Coral Sea to north of Vanuatu and across Fiji and
southern Tonga. Tropical Low L1 should travel off to the southeast and
take with it much of the SPCZ energy.
There is another convergence zone this week between Tuvalu and
Tokelau/Suwarrow, and a "mirror ITCZ" along around 3 to 7S between
Galapagos and Marquesas.
HIGHS and LOWS
HIGH H1 is expected to travel eastwards along around 40S and well
south of Tahiti.
LOW L2 is expected to travel quickly eastwards across south Tasman Sea
along 50S next few days and bring strong west to SW winds over central
and southern NZ mid-week.
This is expected to quickly be followed by L3 travelling NE from
Southern Ocean along east-of -NZ on Good Friday and then deepening
east of the NI over the Easter weekend, moving off early next week.
Avoid.
Panama to Marquesas:
The northerly winds in Panama gulf are expected to return from around
Sat 30 March for a few days. try and arrange departure then. .
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
If you would like more details about your voyage, then check
metbob.com to see what I offer.
Or Facebook at /www.facebook.com/metbobnz/
Weathergram with graphics is at metbob.wordpress.com
(subscribe/unsubscribe at bottom).
Weathergram archive (with translator) is at
weathergram.blogspot.co.nz.
Contact is bob@metbob.com or text 64277762212.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
Disclaimer: Weather is a mix of pattern and chaos; these ideas are
from the patterned world.
Compiled Sunday 24 March 2024
Saturday 23 March 2024 was World Meteorological Day.
The theme this year is AT THE FRONTLINE OF CLIMATE CHANGE
They have just completed a report of the state of the climate at the
end of 2023
This can be seen at youtu.be/ES7eKWRRJ0o
The report starts with the alarming record breaking of a warming
planet but ends with the hope of rapidly increasing sustainable energy
sources, reducing emissions, and increasing investment in climate
adaptation.
TROPICS
Late reports from Mozambique say Tropical Storm Filipo killed one
person and injured seven others when it passed through the south of
the country during the previous week.
. Category-2 Cyclone Megan swamped a remote part of far northern
Australia, along the coast of the Gulf of Carpentaria.
. Tropical Storm Neville strengthened to hurricane force over the
eastern Indian Ocean.
The MJO pattern moved over the South Pacific last week and is still
around this week, but nothing much has been triggered. We can now
expect a few quiet weeks in the tropical South Pacific, and there is
still time for another MJO cycle in mid-April before ethe normal end
of this cyclone season.
WEATHER ZONES
The South Pacific Convergence zone is starting to weaken and narrow
and stretches from Coral Sea to north of Vanuatu and across Fiji and
southern Tonga. Tropical Low L1 should travel off to the southeast and
take with it much of the SPCZ energy.
There is another convergence zone this week between Tuvalu and
Tokelau/Suwarrow, and a "mirror ITCZ" along around 3 to 7S between
Galapagos and Marquesas.
HIGHS and LOWS
HIGH H1 is expected to travel eastwards along around 40S and well
south of Tahiti.
LOW L2 is expected to travel quickly eastwards across south Tasman Sea
along 50S next few days and bring strong west to SW winds over central
and southern NZ mid-week.
This is expected to quickly be followed by L3 travelling NE from
Southern Ocean along east-of -NZ on Good Friday and then deepening
east of the NI over the Easter weekend, moving off early next week.
Avoid.
Panama to Marquesas:
The northerly winds in Panama gulf are expected to return from around
Sat 30 March for a few days. try and arrange departure then. .
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
If you would like more details about your voyage, then check
metbob.com to see what I offer.
Or Facebook at /www.facebook.com/metbobnz/
Weathergram with graphics is at metbob.wordpress.com
(subscribe/unsubscribe at bottom).
Weathergram archive (with translator) is at
weathergram.blogspot.co.nz.
Contact is bob@metbob.com or text 64277762212.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
19 March 2024
Collaboration request
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17 March 2024
Bob blog 17 March
Bob McDavitt's ideas for sailing around the South Pacific.
Disclaimer: Weather is a mix of pattern and chaos; these ideas are
from the patterned world.
Compiled Sunday 17 March 2024
EL NINO fading to NEUTRAL,
In mid-March the equatorial current was going westwards as if on
steroids.
As the surface: warm water is being pushed physically by an increasing
wind from the east Pacific along the equator. This happens across the
entire equatorial Pacific and piles up over the western Pacific.
There, to flatten out this buildup, water beneath it at around 50 to
150m is pushed outwards at over 2kt, creating an east-going current
called the Pacific Equatorial Undercurrent or EUC which starts in
Indonesia.
When this current hits the barrier offered by the Galapagos, most of
it diverts around this obstacle, but some of it diverts upwards to
replace the water that has been taken west-wards. This UPWELLING,
being cooler and full of nutrients, provides the rich animal and bird
life of the Galapagos with a feast of food.
The behaviour of the EUC is tied up with the El Nino and La Nina
patterns, but because it is hard to observe, little is known what
changes its 'mood".
We do know a lot now about how the tropics influence New Zealand
weather. Ove the recent summer ELNINO was in the driving seat,
producing more westerly winds than normal over NZ - filling the hydro
lakes with reasonable rain, but producing dry conditions east of the
Alps, and now a drought in Marlborough. During autumn EL NINO will be
replaced by what we call "NEUTRAL" conditions. The weather will swing
from one pattern to another, allowing variety as each pattern gets to
"play" for a short time. I call this "Weather Jazz"
(youtube.com/watch?v=dlee09qmnv4)
TUVALU is slowly sinking
The spring tide in February is always higher than other months because
of the season. This year, with the warmer than normal seas in the
ocean, the February spring tide brought flooding to Funafuti's main
road. The newly elected Government have a hard time on their hands
with just a few decades left to shift the whole population somewhere
else.
TROPICS
Tropical Storm Filipo brought much needed rainfall to southern
Mozambique after forming over the Mozambique Channel. Cyclone Meagan,
named yesterday, is heading west almost towards Darwin. Tropical
depression Eighteen is lurking off NW Australia and also travelling
westwards.
The MJO pattern is now active over Northern Australia and moving into
the Pacific, increasing the risk of cyclone formation on the Coral sea
over the coming week.
WEATHER ZONES
The South Pacific Convergence zone is very active this week across the
Coral Sea and Vanuatu to Fiji and then east-southeastwards to the
Austral Islands.
Tropical Low L1 now west of Vanuatu is expected to slowly travel SE
over southern parts of Fiji later this weekend. Avoid.
HIGHS and LOWS
LOW L2 south of Niue is expected to travel slowly southeast.
Low L3 just east of Chathams tonight is expected to go northeast and
deepen in the next few days, then turn east and then southeast
following L1. Avoid.
HIGH H1 in the Tasman Sea is expected and the North Island on Friday,
followed by a northerly flow ahead of L4 which should reach mainly the
North Island on Friday.
Panama to Marquesas:
The northerly winds in Panama gulf are becoming less reliable as the
equinox approaches.
Avoid departing between 21 and 29 March.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
If you would like more details about your voyage, then check
metbob.com to see what I offer.
Or Facebook at /www.facebook.com/metbobnz/
Weathergram with graphics is at metbob.wordpress.com
(subscribe/unsubscribe at bottom).
Weathergram archive (with translator) is at
weathergram.blogspot.co.nz.
Contact is bob@metbob.com or text 64277762212.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
Disclaimer: Weather is a mix of pattern and chaos; these ideas are
from the patterned world.
Compiled Sunday 17 March 2024
EL NINO fading to NEUTRAL,
In mid-March the equatorial current was going westwards as if on
steroids.
As the surface: warm water is being pushed physically by an increasing
wind from the east Pacific along the equator. This happens across the
entire equatorial Pacific and piles up over the western Pacific.
There, to flatten out this buildup, water beneath it at around 50 to
150m is pushed outwards at over 2kt, creating an east-going current
called the Pacific Equatorial Undercurrent or EUC which starts in
Indonesia.
When this current hits the barrier offered by the Galapagos, most of
it diverts around this obstacle, but some of it diverts upwards to
replace the water that has been taken west-wards. This UPWELLING,
being cooler and full of nutrients, provides the rich animal and bird
life of the Galapagos with a feast of food.
The behaviour of the EUC is tied up with the El Nino and La Nina
patterns, but because it is hard to observe, little is known what
changes its 'mood".
We do know a lot now about how the tropics influence New Zealand
weather. Ove the recent summer ELNINO was in the driving seat,
producing more westerly winds than normal over NZ - filling the hydro
lakes with reasonable rain, but producing dry conditions east of the
Alps, and now a drought in Marlborough. During autumn EL NINO will be
replaced by what we call "NEUTRAL" conditions. The weather will swing
from one pattern to another, allowing variety as each pattern gets to
"play" for a short time. I call this "Weather Jazz"
(youtube.com/watch?v=dlee09qmnv4)
TUVALU is slowly sinking
The spring tide in February is always higher than other months because
of the season. This year, with the warmer than normal seas in the
ocean, the February spring tide brought flooding to Funafuti's main
road. The newly elected Government have a hard time on their hands
with just a few decades left to shift the whole population somewhere
else.
TROPICS
Tropical Storm Filipo brought much needed rainfall to southern
Mozambique after forming over the Mozambique Channel. Cyclone Meagan,
named yesterday, is heading west almost towards Darwin. Tropical
depression Eighteen is lurking off NW Australia and also travelling
westwards.
The MJO pattern is now active over Northern Australia and moving into
the Pacific, increasing the risk of cyclone formation on the Coral sea
over the coming week.
WEATHER ZONES
The South Pacific Convergence zone is very active this week across the
Coral Sea and Vanuatu to Fiji and then east-southeastwards to the
Austral Islands.
Tropical Low L1 now west of Vanuatu is expected to slowly travel SE
over southern parts of Fiji later this weekend. Avoid.
HIGHS and LOWS
LOW L2 south of Niue is expected to travel slowly southeast.
Low L3 just east of Chathams tonight is expected to go northeast and
deepen in the next few days, then turn east and then southeast
following L1. Avoid.
HIGH H1 in the Tasman Sea is expected and the North Island on Friday,
followed by a northerly flow ahead of L4 which should reach mainly the
North Island on Friday.
Panama to Marquesas:
The northerly winds in Panama gulf are becoming less reliable as the
equinox approaches.
Avoid departing between 21 and 29 March.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
If you would like more details about your voyage, then check
metbob.com to see what I offer.
Or Facebook at /www.facebook.com/metbobnz/
Weathergram with graphics is at metbob.wordpress.com
(subscribe/unsubscribe at bottom).
Weathergram archive (with translator) is at
weathergram.blogspot.co.nz.
Contact is bob@metbob.com or text 64277762212.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
10 March 2024
Bob blog 10 March
Bob McDavitt's ideas for sailing around the South Pacific.
Disclaimer: Weather is a mix of pattern and chaos; these ideas are
from the patterned world.
Compiled Sunday 10 March 2024
Brace for a few weeks of extra convective energy (bubbly blue) in the
South Pacific as the MJO moves across the Pacific.
See www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/forca.shtml
ALSO: Between Galapagos and Marquesas, that "mirror convergence
zones"" which I mentioned before have now formed :
TROPICS
There are no named storms tonight. But there is potential for cyclonic
formation in the zone between northern Australia and Fiji during the
coming eek.
WEATHER ZONES
The South Pacific Convergence zone is very active this week across the
Coral Sea and Vanuatu to Fiji and then east-south-eastwards to the
Austral Islands.
Tropical Low L3 now over Vanuatu is expected to travel southeast
across Fiji on Tuesday and Tonga on Wed/Thursday. Avoid.
Another Low L4 may form near New Caledonia from Wednesday. Avoid.
HIGHS and LOWS
HIGH H1 is lingering in the north Tasman Sea
Low L1, well to the east of NZ, is expected to linger south of Tahiti
this week.
Low L2 and associated trough is expected to cross the southern Tasman
Sea this week and then NZ on Friday. Avoid.
Panama to Marquesas:
The northerly winds in Panama gulf are expected to extend as far as
5North this week.
Monday or Tuesday departures are looking best of the week.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
If you would like more details about your voyage, then check
metbob.com to see what I offer.
Or Facebook at /www.facebook.com/metbobnz/
Weathergram with graphics is at metbob.wordpress.com
(subscribe/unsubscribe at bottom).
Weathergram archive (with translator) is at
weathergram.blogspot.co.nz.
Contact is bob@metbob.com or text 64277762212.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
Disclaimer: Weather is a mix of pattern and chaos; these ideas are
from the patterned world.
Compiled Sunday 10 March 2024
Brace for a few weeks of extra convective energy (bubbly blue) in the
South Pacific as the MJO moves across the Pacific.
See www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/forca.shtml
ALSO: Between Galapagos and Marquesas, that "mirror convergence
zones"" which I mentioned before have now formed :
TROPICS
There are no named storms tonight. But there is potential for cyclonic
formation in the zone between northern Australia and Fiji during the
coming eek.
WEATHER ZONES
The South Pacific Convergence zone is very active this week across the
Coral Sea and Vanuatu to Fiji and then east-south-eastwards to the
Austral Islands.
Tropical Low L3 now over Vanuatu is expected to travel southeast
across Fiji on Tuesday and Tonga on Wed/Thursday. Avoid.
Another Low L4 may form near New Caledonia from Wednesday. Avoid.
HIGHS and LOWS
HIGH H1 is lingering in the north Tasman Sea
Low L1, well to the east of NZ, is expected to linger south of Tahiti
this week.
Low L2 and associated trough is expected to cross the southern Tasman
Sea this week and then NZ on Friday. Avoid.
Panama to Marquesas:
The northerly winds in Panama gulf are expected to extend as far as
5North this week.
Monday or Tuesday departures are looking best of the week.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
If you would like more details about your voyage, then check
metbob.com to see what I offer.
Or Facebook at /www.facebook.com/metbobnz/
Weathergram with graphics is at metbob.wordpress.com
(subscribe/unsubscribe at bottom).
Weathergram archive (with translator) is at
weathergram.blogspot.co.nz.
Contact is bob@metbob.com or text 64277762212.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
03 March 2024
Bob Blog 3 March
Bob McDavitt's ideas for sailing around the South Pacific.
Disclaimer: Weather is a mix of pattern and chaos; these ideas are
from the patterned world.
Compiled Sunday 3 March 2024
A review of last month's weather
Here is a link to a YouTube clip giving an animated loop of the
isobars and streamlines in the South Pacific for the last month at
youtu.be/ufI3KuZYp3w
During February we had an MJO passage for the first few weeks,
activating the South Pacific Convergence Zone (SPCZ) producing 4
tropical depressions of interest and two cyclones NAT and OSAI. These
systems where so close together that they kept feeding off each other
and none was allowed to blossom beyond a brief storm.
An active SPCZ meant an active Hadley cell and thus an intense
subtropical ridge which helped to keep tropical systems away from NZ
latitude. However, it was an El Nino month and that allowed several
fronts from the Southern Ocean to move onto NZ and bring bursts of
large swells into the Tasman Sea as far north as New Caledonia.
The SST pattern has slightly relaxed since last month.
Average isobars for past month : During February the subtropical
ridges in both hemispheres were well marked.
The anomaly pattern for February shows that the trough area that was
over NZ in January has shifted to stretch from the SPCZ to the eastern
part of the South Pacific. The subtropical ridge has increased by over
5hPa since January.
TROPICS
There are no named storms tonight. During the past week LINCOLN
brought generous amounts of rain to the parched lands over NW
Australia
WEATHER ZONES
The South Pacific Convergence zone is rebuilding in the Coral Sea.
A passing front is expected to cross New Caledonia on Monday. Another
may linger to southeast of Tahiti.
HIGHS and LOWS
HIGH H1 is lingering well to south of Tahiti .
Low L1 is tonight a deep low 960hPa near 55S and expected to travel
quickly northeast to be east of Chatham Island by midweek. Its
associated thundery fronts should cross NZ on Monday, and then a burst
of large SW swells in the Tasman Sea mainly on Tuesday. Avoid.
HIGH H2 is expected to move into the Tasman se by Wednesday then stop
and fade.
Another low L2 and associated fronts are expected to travel northeast
onto NZ area on Thursday and Friday.
Panama to Marquesas:
The northerly winds in Panama gulf are expected to extend as far as
5North this week.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
If you would like more details about your voyage, then check
metbob.com to see what I offer.
Or Facebook at /www.facebook.com/metbobnz/
Weathergram with graphics is at metbob.wordpress.com
(subscribe/unsubscribe at bottom).
Weathergram archive (with translator) is at
weathergram.blogspot.co.nz.
Contact is bob@metbob.com or text 64277762212.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
Disclaimer: Weather is a mix of pattern and chaos; these ideas are
from the patterned world.
Compiled Sunday 3 March 2024
A review of last month's weather
Here is a link to a YouTube clip giving an animated loop of the
isobars and streamlines in the South Pacific for the last month at
youtu.be/ufI3KuZYp3w
During February we had an MJO passage for the first few weeks,
activating the South Pacific Convergence Zone (SPCZ) producing 4
tropical depressions of interest and two cyclones NAT and OSAI. These
systems where so close together that they kept feeding off each other
and none was allowed to blossom beyond a brief storm.
An active SPCZ meant an active Hadley cell and thus an intense
subtropical ridge which helped to keep tropical systems away from NZ
latitude. However, it was an El Nino month and that allowed several
fronts from the Southern Ocean to move onto NZ and bring bursts of
large swells into the Tasman Sea as far north as New Caledonia.
The SST pattern has slightly relaxed since last month.
Average isobars for past month : During February the subtropical
ridges in both hemispheres were well marked.
The anomaly pattern for February shows that the trough area that was
over NZ in January has shifted to stretch from the SPCZ to the eastern
part of the South Pacific. The subtropical ridge has increased by over
5hPa since January.
TROPICS
There are no named storms tonight. During the past week LINCOLN
brought generous amounts of rain to the parched lands over NW
Australia
WEATHER ZONES
The South Pacific Convergence zone is rebuilding in the Coral Sea.
A passing front is expected to cross New Caledonia on Monday. Another
may linger to southeast of Tahiti.
HIGHS and LOWS
HIGH H1 is lingering well to south of Tahiti .
Low L1 is tonight a deep low 960hPa near 55S and expected to travel
quickly northeast to be east of Chatham Island by midweek. Its
associated thundery fronts should cross NZ on Monday, and then a burst
of large SW swells in the Tasman Sea mainly on Tuesday. Avoid.
HIGH H2 is expected to move into the Tasman se by Wednesday then stop
and fade.
Another low L2 and associated fronts are expected to travel northeast
onto NZ area on Thursday and Friday.
Panama to Marquesas:
The northerly winds in Panama gulf are expected to extend as far as
5North this week.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
If you would like more details about your voyage, then check
metbob.com to see what I offer.
Or Facebook at /www.facebook.com/metbobnz/
Weathergram with graphics is at metbob.wordpress.com
(subscribe/unsubscribe at bottom).
Weathergram archive (with translator) is at
weathergram.blogspot.co.nz.
Contact is bob@metbob.com or text 64277762212.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
25 February 2024
Bob Blog
Bob McDavitt's ideas for sailing around the South Pacific.
Disclaimer: Weather is a mix of pattern and chaos; these ideas are
from the patterned world.
Compiled Sunday 25 February 2024
Panama to Marquesas -seasonal challenges
Normally the International Convergence zone ITCZ meanders across the
Pacific Ocean in a latitude band between 10 and 2 degrees north of the
equator.
An interesting "mirror" of the ITCZ forms in the eastern Pacific at
this time of the year:
This is triggered by the overhead sun. During late February and early
March, the latitude of the overhead sun shifts slowly northwards from
11S (20Feb) towards the equator (21 Mar/equinox) and then Panama (10
April) (see table of solar declination)
This triggers a convergence zone to southwest of the Galapagos which
lingers there maybe until April, then disappears until the following
year. I call this the mirror convergence zone as it seems to somehow
mirror what is happening in the ITCZ to the north. That could be due
to the way the atmospheric currents turnover with zones of two
castling clouds sharing the same moat of sinking air.
This will become one of the challenges for vessels sailing between
Panama and Marquesas. Another challenge is that as the season changes
the southerly winds in the southern hemisphere will shift north, and
NE winds in the Panama gulf will gradually fade by early April when
the overhead sun gets north of Panama. The swells between Panama and
Galapagos become a confused amalgam but with an increasing SW
component.
One feature that is useful for sailors entering the Pacific from
Panama is the sea surface current.
I know we still have an EL NINO episode, but this is fading. EL NINO
is associated with a weaking of the equatorial west-going current, but
at present this current is looking very healthy. These currents are
taking the warmer-than-normal sea surface that EL NINO built up near
Galapagos out into the rest of the Pacific.
TROPICS
l Cyclone Potential
Northwestern Australia was drenched by slowly moving Tropical Storm
Lincoln. The storm strengthened after moving out to sea again, and
then made landfall on the far northwest coast. Tropical Storm Eleanor
looped around the Indian Ocean islands of Mauritius and Réunion. There
is still a potential for development over Vanuatu but this is
decreasing.
WEATHER ZONES
The South Pacific Convergence zone remains well established from
Vanuatu to Low L3 which is expected to travel off to the southeast.
There is another convergence zone over Northern Cooks, and tropical
low L2 south of Southern Cooks that should linger until mid-week then
fade.
There is also a convergence zone lingering south of Tahiti.
HIGHS and LOWS
HIGH H1 continues to linger well east of NZ.
Low L3 formed northwest of Auckland today, disrupting an Australian
/NZ cricket game. It is expected to deepen further as it moves
southeast, crossing Chathams mid-week. It should leave a southerly
flow over NZ until Wednesday.
HIGH H2 in Australia Bight should cross Tasmania on Monday and then
move northeast across the Tasman Sea reaching 30S to north of NZ by
Friday, followed by a trough over NZ this weekend.
Panama to Marquesas: the Northerly winds in the gulf should last all
week. Scattered squalls between 5N and 2N.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
If you would like more details about your voyage, then check
metbob.com to see what I offer.
Or Facebook at /www.facebook.com/metbobnz/
Weathergram with graphics is at metbob.wordpress.com
(subscribe/unsubscribe at bottom).
Weathergram archive (with translator) is at
weathergram.blogspot.co.nz.
Contact is bob@metbob.com or text 64277762212.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
Disclaimer: Weather is a mix of pattern and chaos; these ideas are
from the patterned world.
Compiled Sunday 25 February 2024
Panama to Marquesas -seasonal challenges
Normally the International Convergence zone ITCZ meanders across the
Pacific Ocean in a latitude band between 10 and 2 degrees north of the
equator.
An interesting "mirror" of the ITCZ forms in the eastern Pacific at
this time of the year:
This is triggered by the overhead sun. During late February and early
March, the latitude of the overhead sun shifts slowly northwards from
11S (20Feb) towards the equator (21 Mar/equinox) and then Panama (10
April) (see table of solar declination)
This triggers a convergence zone to southwest of the Galapagos which
lingers there maybe until April, then disappears until the following
year. I call this the mirror convergence zone as it seems to somehow
mirror what is happening in the ITCZ to the north. That could be due
to the way the atmospheric currents turnover with zones of two
castling clouds sharing the same moat of sinking air.
This will become one of the challenges for vessels sailing between
Panama and Marquesas. Another challenge is that as the season changes
the southerly winds in the southern hemisphere will shift north, and
NE winds in the Panama gulf will gradually fade by early April when
the overhead sun gets north of Panama. The swells between Panama and
Galapagos become a confused amalgam but with an increasing SW
component.
One feature that is useful for sailors entering the Pacific from
Panama is the sea surface current.
I know we still have an EL NINO episode, but this is fading. EL NINO
is associated with a weaking of the equatorial west-going current, but
at present this current is looking very healthy. These currents are
taking the warmer-than-normal sea surface that EL NINO built up near
Galapagos out into the rest of the Pacific.
TROPICS
l Cyclone Potential
Northwestern Australia was drenched by slowly moving Tropical Storm
Lincoln. The storm strengthened after moving out to sea again, and
then made landfall on the far northwest coast. Tropical Storm Eleanor
looped around the Indian Ocean islands of Mauritius and Réunion. There
is still a potential for development over Vanuatu but this is
decreasing.
WEATHER ZONES
The South Pacific Convergence zone remains well established from
Vanuatu to Low L3 which is expected to travel off to the southeast.
There is another convergence zone over Northern Cooks, and tropical
low L2 south of Southern Cooks that should linger until mid-week then
fade.
There is also a convergence zone lingering south of Tahiti.
HIGHS and LOWS
HIGH H1 continues to linger well east of NZ.
Low L3 formed northwest of Auckland today, disrupting an Australian
/NZ cricket game. It is expected to deepen further as it moves
southeast, crossing Chathams mid-week. It should leave a southerly
flow over NZ until Wednesday.
HIGH H2 in Australia Bight should cross Tasmania on Monday and then
move northeast across the Tasman Sea reaching 30S to north of NZ by
Friday, followed by a trough over NZ this weekend.
Panama to Marquesas: the Northerly winds in the gulf should last all
week. Scattered squalls between 5N and 2N.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
If you would like more details about your voyage, then check
metbob.com to see what I offer.
Or Facebook at /www.facebook.com/metbobnz/
Weathergram with graphics is at metbob.wordpress.com
(subscribe/unsubscribe at bottom).
Weathergram archive (with translator) is at
weathergram.blogspot.co.nz.
Contact is bob@metbob.com or text 64277762212.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
18 February 2024
Bobgram 18 Feb
Bob McDavitt's ideas for sailing around the South Pacific.
Disclaimer: Weather is a mix of pattern and chaos; these ideas are
from the patterned world.
Compiled Sunday 18 February 2024
El Nino is expected to weaken this autumn
We are having an El Nino weather pattern. It is the name given to the
period when sea surface temperatures over the eastern equatorial
Pacific are above normal. This pattern is expected to weaken during
our autumn as shown by The Bureau of Meteorology, Australia. with the
trends in Sea temperature made by several computer models.
The next image in my illustrated edition at metbob.com shows the daily
averaged isobars over the NZ area for the main part of summer
(longitudes 160E to 180 and latitudes 20S to 50S from Dec 1st to Feb
15th). The passing HIGHS are regular around once a week but for late
January and early February South of the Highs there are regular
passing fronts and lows crossing the Southern Ocean bringing rain to
the southwest of NZ and hot dry northwest winds to places east of the
main ranges.
As we move out of El Nino during autumn there is likely to be a period
where the weather will swing from one pattern to another, allowing
variety as each pattern gets to "play" for a short time. I call this
"weather Jazz" and at metbob.com is what I got when I asked AI to draw
that.
TROPICS
An unnamed, short-lived and minimal tropical storm drenched central
parts of the Vanuatu archipelago before dissipating near Fiji. Another
tropical depression recently drenched the Sothern Coos and is now
moving off to the southeast. LINCOLN moved from Gulf of Carpinteria to
inland Australia, And GYOUNGOU is in the mid Indian Ocean.
WEATHER ZONES
The South Pacific Convergence zone remains strong, active, squally and
has a few tropical depressions, but there is too much wind shear aloft
to allow cyclones to form.
L1 near Samoa is expected to start moving to the southeast across Niue
area and the Southern Cooks after Wednesday.
L2 has been hovering to west of Fiji for a few days and will do so
until around Wednesday then weaken.
HIGHS and LOWS
HIGH H1 east of NZ should weaken as it travels further east.
Front attached to L3 is expected to quickly cross NZ on Monday.
H2 is expected to cross the Tasmanian area tonight/ then the central
Tasman Sea on Monday/Tuesday
and then central NZ on Wednesday and Thursday with a ridge remaining
in the far north as the High travels off further east.
After H2 a frontal trough is expected to reach the South Island by
Saturday and cross the North Island on Sunday25 Feb.
Panama to Marquesas: the Northerly winds in the gulf should last all
week. Scattered squalls to 2S.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
If you would like more details about your voyage, then check
metbob.com to see what I offer.
Or Facebook at /www.facebook.com/metbobnz/
Weathergram with graphics is at metbob.wordpress.com
(subscribe/unsubscribe at bottom).
Weathergram archive (with translator) is at
weathergram.blogspot.co.nz.
Contact is bob@metbob.com or text 64277762212.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
Disclaimer: Weather is a mix of pattern and chaos; these ideas are
from the patterned world.
Compiled Sunday 18 February 2024
El Nino is expected to weaken this autumn
We are having an El Nino weather pattern. It is the name given to the
period when sea surface temperatures over the eastern equatorial
Pacific are above normal. This pattern is expected to weaken during
our autumn as shown by The Bureau of Meteorology, Australia. with the
trends in Sea temperature made by several computer models.
The next image in my illustrated edition at metbob.com shows the daily
averaged isobars over the NZ area for the main part of summer
(longitudes 160E to 180 and latitudes 20S to 50S from Dec 1st to Feb
15th). The passing HIGHS are regular around once a week but for late
January and early February South of the Highs there are regular
passing fronts and lows crossing the Southern Ocean bringing rain to
the southwest of NZ and hot dry northwest winds to places east of the
main ranges.
As we move out of El Nino during autumn there is likely to be a period
where the weather will swing from one pattern to another, allowing
variety as each pattern gets to "play" for a short time. I call this
"weather Jazz" and at metbob.com is what I got when I asked AI to draw
that.
TROPICS
An unnamed, short-lived and minimal tropical storm drenched central
parts of the Vanuatu archipelago before dissipating near Fiji. Another
tropical depression recently drenched the Sothern Coos and is now
moving off to the southeast. LINCOLN moved from Gulf of Carpinteria to
inland Australia, And GYOUNGOU is in the mid Indian Ocean.
WEATHER ZONES
The South Pacific Convergence zone remains strong, active, squally and
has a few tropical depressions, but there is too much wind shear aloft
to allow cyclones to form.
L1 near Samoa is expected to start moving to the southeast across Niue
area and the Southern Cooks after Wednesday.
L2 has been hovering to west of Fiji for a few days and will do so
until around Wednesday then weaken.
HIGHS and LOWS
HIGH H1 east of NZ should weaken as it travels further east.
Front attached to L3 is expected to quickly cross NZ on Monday.
H2 is expected to cross the Tasmanian area tonight/ then the central
Tasman Sea on Monday/Tuesday
and then central NZ on Wednesday and Thursday with a ridge remaining
in the far north as the High travels off further east.
After H2 a frontal trough is expected to reach the South Island by
Saturday and cross the North Island on Sunday25 Feb.
Panama to Marquesas: the Northerly winds in the gulf should last all
week. Scattered squalls to 2S.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
If you would like more details about your voyage, then check
metbob.com to see what I offer.
Or Facebook at /www.facebook.com/metbobnz/
Weathergram with graphics is at metbob.wordpress.com
(subscribe/unsubscribe at bottom).
Weathergram archive (with translator) is at
weathergram.blogspot.co.nz.
Contact is bob@metbob.com or text 64277762212.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
11 February 2024
Bob Blog
Bob McDavitt's ideas for sailing around the South Pacific.
Disclaimer: Weather is a mix of pattern and chaos; these ideas are from the patterned world.
Compiled Sunday 11 February 2024
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
Occasional in summer we get today's wonderful pattern when the MJO takes the Monsoonal trough out from Australia and into the central Pacific:
During an El Nino period this helps feed the Hadley and Walker circulations to intensify the Subtropical ridges
I often mention how we can work out the rhythm of weather in the South Pacific by watching the Subtropical ridge STR Recently I have encountered a paper from the boffins at CSIRO in Tasmania who are watching the STR as a way to calculate likely rainfall trends in SE Aus. They have introduced parameters to measure the STR along their local longitude near 150E STR-I for Intensity (hPa) and STR-P for position (Latitude).
www.cawcr.gov.au/projects/vicci/wp-content/uploads/2015/11/Grose2.pdf
Their investigations show that the STR is usually at its southern -most latitude of 38S in February with an average isobar of 1015. Their modelling shows that in the next few decades it is expected to remain close to this positional cycle (with a nudge poleward) but increase its intensity.... Thereby, as a rule of thumb, reducing the rainfall and increasing the surrounding winds.
TROPICS
As expected, it has been a busy week in the South Pacific
Cyclone Nat skirted parts of French Polynesia after forming to the east of American Samoa.
Tropical Storm Osai also formed near Samoa but drifted southeast toward the Cook Islands and unwound.
The Tropical depression now S of Fiji (12P/05F) may blossom into cyclone if it shifts to Samoa
but then enters an area of strong winds aloft that will likely help it unravel.
The Radiosonde from Nadi airport (as seen on Windy) shows these strong winds:
This vertical cross section of the atmosphere (done by good olde weather balloon)
shows very warm moist and unstable air in the dangerous Quadrant of that Low.
WEATHER ZONES
The South Pacific Convergence zone is strong, active, squally and still breeding tropical depressions,
but there may be too much wind shear aloft to allow cyclones to form. L1 southeast of Tahiti is moving off.
L2 near Fiji is the main feature to watch and may still blossom into a cyclone near Samoa mid-week.
HIGHS and LOWS
East of NZ the STR reigns, with a squash zone of enhanced easterlies near 30S.
Over NZ, a cool dying southerly flow on Monday
then a passing HIGH Tuesday to Thursday,
followed by a fading front reaching Southland late Thursday
and Chatham Islands on Saturday.
Panama to Marquesas: the Northerly winds in the gulf may fade on Tuesday and again this weekend.
Avoid departing then.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
If you would like more details about your voyage, then check metbob.com to see what I offer.
Or Facebook at /www.facebook.com/metbobnz/
Weathergram with graphics is at metbob.wordpress.com (subscribe/unsubscribe at bottom).
Weathergram archive (with translator) is at weathergram.blogspot.co.nz.
Contact is bob@metbob.com or text 64277762212.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
Disclaimer: Weather is a mix of pattern and chaos; these ideas are from the patterned world.
Compiled Sunday 11 February 2024
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
Occasional in summer we get today's wonderful pattern when the MJO takes the Monsoonal trough out from Australia and into the central Pacific:
During an El Nino period this helps feed the Hadley and Walker circulations to intensify the Subtropical ridges
I often mention how we can work out the rhythm of weather in the South Pacific by watching the Subtropical ridge STR Recently I have encountered a paper from the boffins at CSIRO in Tasmania who are watching the STR as a way to calculate likely rainfall trends in SE Aus. They have introduced parameters to measure the STR along their local longitude near 150E STR-I for Intensity (hPa) and STR-P for position (Latitude).
www.cawcr.gov.au/projects/vicci/wp-content/uploads/2015/11/Grose2.pdf
Their investigations show that the STR is usually at its southern -most latitude of 38S in February with an average isobar of 1015. Their modelling shows that in the next few decades it is expected to remain close to this positional cycle (with a nudge poleward) but increase its intensity.... Thereby, as a rule of thumb, reducing the rainfall and increasing the surrounding winds.
TROPICS
As expected, it has been a busy week in the South Pacific
Cyclone Nat skirted parts of French Polynesia after forming to the east of American Samoa.
Tropical Storm Osai also formed near Samoa but drifted southeast toward the Cook Islands and unwound.
The Tropical depression now S of Fiji (12P/05F) may blossom into cyclone if it shifts to Samoa
but then enters an area of strong winds aloft that will likely help it unravel.
The Radiosonde from Nadi airport (as seen on Windy) shows these strong winds:
This vertical cross section of the atmosphere (done by good olde weather balloon)
shows very warm moist and unstable air in the dangerous Quadrant of that Low.
WEATHER ZONES
The South Pacific Convergence zone is strong, active, squally and still breeding tropical depressions,
but there may be too much wind shear aloft to allow cyclones to form. L1 southeast of Tahiti is moving off.
L2 near Fiji is the main feature to watch and may still blossom into a cyclone near Samoa mid-week.
HIGHS and LOWS
East of NZ the STR reigns, with a squash zone of enhanced easterlies near 30S.
Over NZ, a cool dying southerly flow on Monday
then a passing HIGH Tuesday to Thursday,
followed by a fading front reaching Southland late Thursday
and Chatham Islands on Saturday.
Panama to Marquesas: the Northerly winds in the gulf may fade on Tuesday and again this weekend.
Avoid departing then.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
If you would like more details about your voyage, then check metbob.com to see what I offer.
Or Facebook at /www.facebook.com/metbobnz/
Weathergram with graphics is at metbob.wordpress.com (subscribe/unsubscribe at bottom).
Weathergram archive (with translator) is at weathergram.blogspot.co.nz.
Contact is bob@metbob.com or text 64277762212.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
04 February 2024
Bob Blog 4 Feb
Bob McDavitt's ideas for sailing around the South Pacific.
Disclaimer: Weather is a mix of pattern and chaos; these ideas are from the
patterned world.
Compiled Sunday 4 February 2024
A review of last month's weather
Here is a link to a YouTube clip giving an animated loop of the isobars and
streamlines in the South Pacific for the last month at youtu.be/BeFD1a7Hhu4
During late January an MJO started to move across northern Australia and
triggered TC KIRILLY which moved onto Queensland and turned into a wet
depression, In early February (late last week) KIRILLY rejuvenated back into
a cyclone thanks probably to the warm rainwater flooding out to gulf of
Carpentaria. It is now a rain depression crossing central Australia.
Sea Surface temperature anomalies from psl.noaa.gov/map/clim/sst.shtml
There is now a stretch of warner than normal sea from Queensland to the
dateline and to the east of NZ. This may well herald a cyclone path over
next few weeks.
Average isobars for past month (below)
As far as the monthly averaged weather map is concerned, there has NOT been
much change during February.
The Siberian HIGH has expanded and intensified. In the Southern Hemisphere,
the subtropical ridge has weakened SW of Australia and over NZ .
The South Tasman Sea turned into a low breeding area during February. Apart
from that there wasn't much change around the globe.
The 1010 isobar has shifted south across Australia and New Caledonia and
northwards onto Tasmania and southern NZ .
TROPICS
KIRILLY reformed in Gulf of Carpentaria and moved into inland Australia and
is now a wet monsoonal low. There is a tropical depression in the Coral Sea
and it may deepen and move onto New Caledonia mid-eek.
WEATHER ZONES
The South Pacific Convergence zone is strong and lingers on north side of a
stretched-out trough linking a well-formed LOW L1 in the Coral Sea with a
low lingering between Niue and Aitutaki L2 and another briefly near Tahiti
mid-week: L3. Brace for lightning in the squalls with these lows and the
SPCZ.
HIGHS and LOWS
A Thundery trough crossed NZ on Saturday, opening the door so that NZ may
get some hot air from Australia in a slow-moving High next few days.
There is forecast to be a weak southerly change along East Coast around
Thursday, and a more significant trough by Saturday then another HIGH for
early next week.
Panama to Marquesas:
7 to 11 Feb are the better days for departure from Panama in order to
capture a burst of NE winds out across the Panama Gulf.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
If you would like more details about your voyage, then check metbob.com to
see what I offer.
Or Facebook at /www.facebook.com/metbobnz/
Weathergram with graphics is at metbob.wordpress.com (subscribe/unsubscribe
at bottom).
Weathergram archive (with translator) is at weathergram.blogspot.co.nz.
Contact is bob@metbob.com or text 64277762212.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
Disclaimer: Weather is a mix of pattern and chaos; these ideas are from the
patterned world.
Compiled Sunday 4 February 2024
A review of last month's weather
Here is a link to a YouTube clip giving an animated loop of the isobars and
streamlines in the South Pacific for the last month at youtu.be/BeFD1a7Hhu4
During late January an MJO started to move across northern Australia and
triggered TC KIRILLY which moved onto Queensland and turned into a wet
depression, In early February (late last week) KIRILLY rejuvenated back into
a cyclone thanks probably to the warm rainwater flooding out to gulf of
Carpentaria. It is now a rain depression crossing central Australia.
Sea Surface temperature anomalies from psl.noaa.gov/map/clim/sst.shtml
There is now a stretch of warner than normal sea from Queensland to the
dateline and to the east of NZ. This may well herald a cyclone path over
next few weeks.
Average isobars for past month (below)
As far as the monthly averaged weather map is concerned, there has NOT been
much change during February.
The Siberian HIGH has expanded and intensified. In the Southern Hemisphere,
the subtropical ridge has weakened SW of Australia and over NZ .
The South Tasman Sea turned into a low breeding area during February. Apart
from that there wasn't much change around the globe.
The 1010 isobar has shifted south across Australia and New Caledonia and
northwards onto Tasmania and southern NZ .
TROPICS
KIRILLY reformed in Gulf of Carpentaria and moved into inland Australia and
is now a wet monsoonal low. There is a tropical depression in the Coral Sea
and it may deepen and move onto New Caledonia mid-eek.
WEATHER ZONES
The South Pacific Convergence zone is strong and lingers on north side of a
stretched-out trough linking a well-formed LOW L1 in the Coral Sea with a
low lingering between Niue and Aitutaki L2 and another briefly near Tahiti
mid-week: L3. Brace for lightning in the squalls with these lows and the
SPCZ.
HIGHS and LOWS
A Thundery trough crossed NZ on Saturday, opening the door so that NZ may
get some hot air from Australia in a slow-moving High next few days.
There is forecast to be a weak southerly change along East Coast around
Thursday, and a more significant trough by Saturday then another HIGH for
early next week.
Panama to Marquesas:
7 to 11 Feb are the better days for departure from Panama in order to
capture a burst of NE winds out across the Panama Gulf.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
If you would like more details about your voyage, then check metbob.com to
see what I offer.
Or Facebook at /www.facebook.com/metbobnz/
Weathergram with graphics is at metbob.wordpress.com (subscribe/unsubscribe
at bottom).
Weathergram archive (with translator) is at weathergram.blogspot.co.nz.
Contact is bob@metbob.com or text 64277762212.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
28 January 2024
Bob Blog 28 Jan
Bob Blog 28 Jan
Bob McDavitt's ideas for sailing around the South Pacific.
Disclaimer: Weather is a mix of pattern and chaos; these ideas are from the
patterned world.
Compiled Sunday 28 January 2024
TROPICS
TANGGREK, and CANDICE are tropical depressions over Indian Ocean and KIRRILY
over inland north Australia. KIRRILY briefly reached Cat 3 before making
landfall near Townsville. These systems contain lots of rain but not much
wind.
The MJO, a burst of extra energy in the tropics, is now crossing the
Pacific, but is rather weak. Three is an increased risk for possible cyclone
development in the Coral Sea this week, and a low may well develop there
after mid-week.
WEATHER ZONES
The South Pacific Convergence zone is active and squally over the Coral Sea
and Vanuatu /Fiji with another branch lingering from Tonga across Southern
Cooks and Tahiti area.
Low L1 is expected to form near 30S and south of Tahiti by mid-week and then
go south.
Low L2 is expected to be a merger of troughs from Fiji and another from NZ
and should move off the south.
Low L3 is part of the monsoonal trough now sitting over northern Australia.
Low L4 might form between Vanuatu and Fiji this weekend and go east towards
Tonga along the SPCZ.
Low L5 is expected to travel east along 53S past the south of NZ on Saturday
3 Feb followed by large swells in the Tasman Sea. Avoid.
HIGH H1 should persist to south of L1, strengthening the easterly flow
between L1 and H1.
HIGH H2 should travel east and bring settled weather to NZ between 4 and 7
Feb for our national day.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
If you would like more details about your voyage, then check metbob.com to
see what I offer.
Or Facebook at /www.facebook.com/metbobnz/
Weathergram with graphics is at metbob.wordpress.com (subscribe/unsubscribe
at bottom).
Weathergram archive (with translator) is at weathergram.blogspot.co.nz.
Contact is bob@metbob.com or text 64277762212.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
Bob McDavitt's ideas for sailing around the South Pacific.
Disclaimer: Weather is a mix of pattern and chaos; these ideas are from the
patterned world.
Compiled Sunday 28 January 2024
TROPICS
TANGGREK, and CANDICE are tropical depressions over Indian Ocean and KIRRILY
over inland north Australia. KIRRILY briefly reached Cat 3 before making
landfall near Townsville. These systems contain lots of rain but not much
wind.
The MJO, a burst of extra energy in the tropics, is now crossing the
Pacific, but is rather weak. Three is an increased risk for possible cyclone
development in the Coral Sea this week, and a low may well develop there
after mid-week.
WEATHER ZONES
The South Pacific Convergence zone is active and squally over the Coral Sea
and Vanuatu /Fiji with another branch lingering from Tonga across Southern
Cooks and Tahiti area.
Low L1 is expected to form near 30S and south of Tahiti by mid-week and then
go south.
Low L2 is expected to be a merger of troughs from Fiji and another from NZ
and should move off the south.
Low L3 is part of the monsoonal trough now sitting over northern Australia.
Low L4 might form between Vanuatu and Fiji this weekend and go east towards
Tonga along the SPCZ.
Low L5 is expected to travel east along 53S past the south of NZ on Saturday
3 Feb followed by large swells in the Tasman Sea. Avoid.
HIGH H1 should persist to south of L1, strengthening the easterly flow
between L1 and H1.
HIGH H2 should travel east and bring settled weather to NZ between 4 and 7
Feb for our national day.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
If you would like more details about your voyage, then check metbob.com to
see what I offer.
Or Facebook at /www.facebook.com/metbobnz/
Weathergram with graphics is at metbob.wordpress.com (subscribe/unsubscribe
at bottom).
Weathergram archive (with translator) is at weathergram.blogspot.co.nz.
Contact is bob@metbob.com or text 64277762212.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
21 January 2024
Bobgram
Bob McDavitt's ideas for sailing around the South Pacific.
Disclaimer: Weather is a mix of pattern and chaos; these ideas are from the
patterned world.
Compiled Sunday 21 January 2024
My regards to those attending the AMS Annual meeting in Baltimore over the
next few days - this year's theme is LIVING IN A CHANGING ENVIRONMENT.
See annual.ametsoc.org/index.cfm/2024/
How much EXTRA energy has been stored in the ocean in 2023?
In 2023 the ocean absorbed 287 zettajoules of heat, an extra 15 zettajoules
of compared with 2022. What is a zettajoule? That is 10^21 joules. Humanity
uses about half a zettajoule of energy a year to fuel the entire global
economy. (The Guardian).
Another way to look this is to see how much energy is found in a typical
tropical cyclone. That seems to be around 6 x 10^14 Watts or 5x10^19 joules
per day, or 25x10^19 joules for a 5-day cyclone. That's .25 Zettajoules.
(from science.howstuffworks.com/)
So, the amount of heat absorbed by oceans last year was equivalent to 70
typical cyclones. More that one a week. Whenever conditions are ripe for
transporting this energy back into the atmosphere via water vapour, it will
express itself as extreme wind and rain.
TROPICS
TC ANGGREK formed in the south Indian Ocean well away from land. Tropical
depression 90P is forming in the Coral Sea and expected to move onto
Queensland later this week. AVOID.
There is a Monsoonal low ~995hPa inland Australia and south of Darwin,
weakening. near Madagascar follows ALVARO, which bothered southern
Madagascar last week.
The MJO, a burst of extra energy in the tropics, is now over Northern
Australia and expected to travel into the South Pacific over next few weeks,
increasing the potential for cyclone formation.
WEATHER ZONES
The South Pacific Convergence zone is strengthening between north Australia
and Vanuatu across the Coral Sea and lapping onto Fiji at times. Tropical
depression P90 is expected to intensify into a cyclone and make landfall
over Queensland late local Thursday.
A subtropical low L1 to south of Tahiti is expected to travel slowly south.
Another subtropical low L3 may form near Fiji mid-week and then travel south
toward NZ.
MID LATITUDES
Low L2 belongs to a trough that is expected to cross NZ on Monday and
Tuesday with scattered rain warnings and then move off to the southeast.
High H1 is expected to cross Tasmania on Monday, then the Tasman Sea on
Tuesday and Wednesday, then central NZ on Thursday and North Island on
Friday.
Low L4 is expected to cross Tasmania on Wednesday and reach southern NZ on
Friday.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
If you would like more details about your voyage, then check metbob.com to
see what I offer.
Or Facebook at /www.facebook.com/metbobnz/
Weathergram with graphics is at metbob.wordpress.com (subscribe/unsubscribe
at bottom).
Weathergram archive (with translator) is at weathergram.blogspot.co.nz.
Contact is bob@metbob.com or text 64277762212.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
Disclaimer: Weather is a mix of pattern and chaos; these ideas are from the
patterned world.
Compiled Sunday 21 January 2024
My regards to those attending the AMS Annual meeting in Baltimore over the
next few days - this year's theme is LIVING IN A CHANGING ENVIRONMENT.
See annual.ametsoc.org/index.cfm/2024/
How much EXTRA energy has been stored in the ocean in 2023?
In 2023 the ocean absorbed 287 zettajoules of heat, an extra 15 zettajoules
of compared with 2022. What is a zettajoule? That is 10^21 joules. Humanity
uses about half a zettajoule of energy a year to fuel the entire global
economy. (The Guardian).
Another way to look this is to see how much energy is found in a typical
tropical cyclone. That seems to be around 6 x 10^14 Watts or 5x10^19 joules
per day, or 25x10^19 joules for a 5-day cyclone. That's .25 Zettajoules.
(from science.howstuffworks.com/)
So, the amount of heat absorbed by oceans last year was equivalent to 70
typical cyclones. More that one a week. Whenever conditions are ripe for
transporting this energy back into the atmosphere via water vapour, it will
express itself as extreme wind and rain.
TROPICS
TC ANGGREK formed in the south Indian Ocean well away from land. Tropical
depression 90P is forming in the Coral Sea and expected to move onto
Queensland later this week. AVOID.
There is a Monsoonal low ~995hPa inland Australia and south of Darwin,
weakening. near Madagascar follows ALVARO, which bothered southern
Madagascar last week.
The MJO, a burst of extra energy in the tropics, is now over Northern
Australia and expected to travel into the South Pacific over next few weeks,
increasing the potential for cyclone formation.
WEATHER ZONES
The South Pacific Convergence zone is strengthening between north Australia
and Vanuatu across the Coral Sea and lapping onto Fiji at times. Tropical
depression P90 is expected to intensify into a cyclone and make landfall
over Queensland late local Thursday.
A subtropical low L1 to south of Tahiti is expected to travel slowly south.
Another subtropical low L3 may form near Fiji mid-week and then travel south
toward NZ.
MID LATITUDES
Low L2 belongs to a trough that is expected to cross NZ on Monday and
Tuesday with scattered rain warnings and then move off to the southeast.
High H1 is expected to cross Tasmania on Monday, then the Tasman Sea on
Tuesday and Wednesday, then central NZ on Thursday and North Island on
Friday.
Low L4 is expected to cross Tasmania on Wednesday and reach southern NZ on
Friday.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
If you would like more details about your voyage, then check metbob.com to
see what I offer.
Or Facebook at /www.facebook.com/metbobnz/
Weathergram with graphics is at metbob.wordpress.com (subscribe/unsubscribe
at bottom).
Weathergram archive (with translator) is at weathergram.blogspot.co.nz.
Contact is bob@metbob.com or text 64277762212.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
14 January 2024
Bobgram 14Jan 2024
Bob McDavitt's ideas for sailing around the South Pacific.
Disclaimer: Weather is a mix of pattern and chaos; these ideas are from the patterned world.
Compiled Sunday 14 January 2024
How 2023 spread of world temperature compare with pat 80 years.
The graph at www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-67861954
shows a histogram for each year since 1940 and reveals the trend of Climate change .
A new edition of NOAA's Climate spiral graphic is at svs.gsfc.nasa.gov/5190/
Recent measurements in the ocean are outstanding...
The annual MONSOON reaches Darwin a few days ago, around a week or two LATE.
Rain starts, pressure drops and a gusty NW wind arrives.
TROPICS
TC BELAL near Madagascar follows ALVARO, which bothered southern Madagascar last week.
The MJO, a burst of extra energy in the tropics, is moving from Indian Ocean towards NW Australia over next few weeks, increasing the potential for cyclone formation around the "top end" of Australia.
WEATHER ZONES
The South Pacific Convergence zone is strengthening between north Australia and Vanuatu across the Coral Sea and lapping onto Fiji at times.
A tropical low L2 may develop near Fiji by mid-week and go south.
Another tropical Low L3 may deepen over Coral Se by end of the week. Keep a WATCH on this.
HIGHS and LOWS
HIGH H1 is lingering east of NZ.
There is a trough crossing NZ tonight and Monday.
This trough is expected to be followed by High H2 from Tasmania.
And following that L1 should cross Tasmania on Wednesday and Thursday with peak southerly swell early Friday.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
If you would like more details about your voyage, then check metbob.com to see what I offer.
Or Facebook at /www.facebook.com/metbobnz/
Weathergram with graphics is at metbob.wordpress.com (subscribe/unsubscribe at bottom).
Weathergram archive (with translator) is at weathergram.blogspot.co.nz.
Contact is bob@metbob.com or text 64277762212.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
Disclaimer: Weather is a mix of pattern and chaos; these ideas are from the patterned world.
Compiled Sunday 14 January 2024
How 2023 spread of world temperature compare with pat 80 years.
The graph at www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-67861954
shows a histogram for each year since 1940 and reveals the trend of Climate change .
A new edition of NOAA's Climate spiral graphic is at svs.gsfc.nasa.gov/5190/
Recent measurements in the ocean are outstanding...
The annual MONSOON reaches Darwin a few days ago, around a week or two LATE.
Rain starts, pressure drops and a gusty NW wind arrives.
TROPICS
TC BELAL near Madagascar follows ALVARO, which bothered southern Madagascar last week.
The MJO, a burst of extra energy in the tropics, is moving from Indian Ocean towards NW Australia over next few weeks, increasing the potential for cyclone formation around the "top end" of Australia.
WEATHER ZONES
The South Pacific Convergence zone is strengthening between north Australia and Vanuatu across the Coral Sea and lapping onto Fiji at times.
A tropical low L2 may develop near Fiji by mid-week and go south.
Another tropical Low L3 may deepen over Coral Se by end of the week. Keep a WATCH on this.
HIGHS and LOWS
HIGH H1 is lingering east of NZ.
There is a trough crossing NZ tonight and Monday.
This trough is expected to be followed by High H2 from Tasmania.
And following that L1 should cross Tasmania on Wednesday and Thursday with peak southerly swell early Friday.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
If you would like more details about your voyage, then check metbob.com to see what I offer.
Or Facebook at /www.facebook.com/metbobnz/
Weathergram with graphics is at metbob.wordpress.com (subscribe/unsubscribe at bottom).
Weathergram archive (with translator) is at weathergram.blogspot.co.nz.
Contact is bob@metbob.com or text 64277762212.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
09 January 2024
Collaboration request
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07 January 2024
Bob Blog
Bob McDavitt's ideas for sailing around the South Pacific.
Disclaimer: Weather is a mix of pattern and chaos; these ideas are from the
patterned world.
Compiled Sunday 7 January 2024
A review of last month's weather
Here is a link to a YouTube clip giving an animated loop of the isobars and
streamlines in the South Pacific for the last month at youtu.be/vleK8qYfAZ8
During early December a MJO period helped activate Tropical cyclone JASPER
that made land fall between around 12 December Cairns and Port Douglas with
record breaking rain.
The remainder of the month was relatively quiet.
Sea Surface temperature anomalies from psl.noaa.gov/map/clim/sst.shtml
There is now a stretch of warner than normal sea from Queensland to the
dateline northeast of NZ.
This may well herald a cyclone path over next few weeks.
Average isobars for past month (below)
The Siberian HIGH has expanded and intensified. In the Southern Hemisphere,
the subtropical ridge remains in the Australian Bight and has shifted south
of New Caledonia. It appears to be slightly weaker than last month. A heat
trough has developed over mainland Australia.
Pressure anomalies for past month (below)
Pressures are now higher than normal over Russia and into the NW Pacific.
The South Pacific Sub tropical ridge is well marked don to around 50S. the
South Pacific convergence zone is weak.
Zooming into the NZ area
The 1015 isobar has shifted south across Australia and New Zealand., also to
south of New Caledonia.
TROPICS
TC ALVARO, the first of 2024, brought heavy rain and strong winds to
southern Madagascar after forming over the Mozambique Channel
The MJO, a burst of extra energy in the tropics, is moving from Indian Ocean
towards NW Australia over next few weeks. next few weeks.
WEATHER ZONES
The South Pacific Convergence zone is weak and mainly between Vanuatu and
Samoa with another branch about the Southern Cooks.
HIGHS and LOWS
Quirt week ahead.
HIGH H1 is lingering east of NZ.
Low L1 is crossing Tasmania tonight and deepening in South Tasman on
Tuesday/Wednesday and South Island on Thursday /Friday.
Low L2 east of Niue tonight is expected to travel off to the SE next few
days.
Low L3 is expected to form southeast of New Caledonia by mid-week and then
travel SW towards Lord Howe by Friday then maybe SE reaching NZ over the
weekend.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
If you would like more details about your voyage, then check metbob.com to
see what I offer.
Or Facebook at /www.facebook.com/metbobnz/
Weathergram with graphics is at metbob.wordpress.com (subscribe/unsubscribe
at bottom).
Weathergram archive (with translator) is at weathergram.blogspot.co.nz.
Contact is bob@metbob.com or text 64277762212.
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Disclaimer: Weather is a mix of pattern and chaos; these ideas are from the
patterned world.
Compiled Sunday 7 January 2024
A review of last month's weather
Here is a link to a YouTube clip giving an animated loop of the isobars and
streamlines in the South Pacific for the last month at youtu.be/vleK8qYfAZ8
During early December a MJO period helped activate Tropical cyclone JASPER
that made land fall between around 12 December Cairns and Port Douglas with
record breaking rain.
The remainder of the month was relatively quiet.
Sea Surface temperature anomalies from psl.noaa.gov/map/clim/sst.shtml
There is now a stretch of warner than normal sea from Queensland to the
dateline northeast of NZ.
This may well herald a cyclone path over next few weeks.
Average isobars for past month (below)
The Siberian HIGH has expanded and intensified. In the Southern Hemisphere,
the subtropical ridge remains in the Australian Bight and has shifted south
of New Caledonia. It appears to be slightly weaker than last month. A heat
trough has developed over mainland Australia.
Pressure anomalies for past month (below)
Pressures are now higher than normal over Russia and into the NW Pacific.
The South Pacific Sub tropical ridge is well marked don to around 50S. the
South Pacific convergence zone is weak.
Zooming into the NZ area
The 1015 isobar has shifted south across Australia and New Zealand., also to
south of New Caledonia.
TROPICS
TC ALVARO, the first of 2024, brought heavy rain and strong winds to
southern Madagascar after forming over the Mozambique Channel
The MJO, a burst of extra energy in the tropics, is moving from Indian Ocean
towards NW Australia over next few weeks. next few weeks.
WEATHER ZONES
The South Pacific Convergence zone is weak and mainly between Vanuatu and
Samoa with another branch about the Southern Cooks.
HIGHS and LOWS
Quirt week ahead.
HIGH H1 is lingering east of NZ.
Low L1 is crossing Tasmania tonight and deepening in South Tasman on
Tuesday/Wednesday and South Island on Thursday /Friday.
Low L2 east of Niue tonight is expected to travel off to the SE next few
days.
Low L3 is expected to form southeast of New Caledonia by mid-week and then
travel SW towards Lord Howe by Friday then maybe SE reaching NZ over the
weekend.
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Weathergram with graphics is at metbob.wordpress.com (subscribe/unsubscribe
at bottom).
Weathergram archive (with translator) is at weathergram.blogspot.co.nz.
Contact is bob@metbob.com or text 64277762212.
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