Bob McDavitt's ideas for sailing around the South Pacific.
Disclaimer: Weather is a mix of pattern and chaos; these ideas are from the
patterned world.
Compiled Sunday 26 Mar 2023
Switching between La Nina and El Nino.
Autumn is usually the season when the El Nino/ La Nina swing tends to occur,
possibly triggered by the equinox as the overhead sun switches from south of
the equator to north of the equator.
La Nina is the name given to the period when sea surface temperature SST
over the eastern equatorial Pacific is below normal. And during an El Nino
the SST is above normal.
In the atmosphere we monitor ENSO = El Nino/Southern Oscillation and its
impact on the weather map by using. the Southern Oscillation Index SOI (30
day running mean) This is based on the standardized difference in the
barometer readings between Tahiti and Darwin, in other words it counts the
average number of isobars between them on the weather map. When the index is
stays more than 10 for more than a month we call it a LA NINA event.
Since 2021 we have had three La Nino summers in a row.
And recent data is showing we are no longer in a La Nina and are now near
zero.
See www.longpaddock.qld.gov.au/soi/
The Ocean:
The parameter used from the ocean is based on the sea surface temperatures
in the equatorial eastern Pacific and called the NINO 3.4 SST anomaly.
The February observation shows a rising trend in the Nino 3.4 index.
International research Institute IRI have compiled the predictions for all
the models as shown here from iri.columbia.edu. The consensus is that
NINO3.4 will keep rising and be warm enough to start an El Nino period by
the start of May.
Expected impact in the South Pacific
An El Nino is associated with weaker trade winds, and this tends to shift
the subtropical ridge north allowing for stronger westerly winds south of
40S.
TROPICS
There are no named cyclones around. There is some potential for development
in the Indian Ocean.
WEATHER ZONES
South Pacific Convergence zone SPCZ
The SPCZ is from Solomons to Fiji. Low L1 now over New Caledonia is expected
to travel ESE and spread squalls to Tonga and Niue. Another convergence zone
is expected to linger between Pitcairn and Easter Islands.
HIGHS and LOWS
A trough over North Island tonight is expected to travel off to the east and
in the SW flow that follows by Tuesday low L2 is expected to develop south
of Chathams and then linger there until end of the week.
High H1 expected to travel east past south of Tasmania on Monday and then
along 50S across south Tasman and past south of NZ on Wednesday with a ridge
of light winds over Aotearoa NZ
Front and L3 expected to form off Sydney on Wed and then travel east across
the Tasman Sea on Thursday and Friday and then across Aotearoa NZ on
Saturday and Sunday .,
OK for sailing so long as avoid L1, L2 and L3.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
If you would like more detail for your voyage, then check metbob.com to see
what I offer.
Or Facebook at /www.facebook.com/metbobnz/
Weathergram with graphics is at metbob.wordpress.com (subscribe/unsubscribe
at bottom).
Weathergram archive (with translator) is at weathergram.blogspot.co.nz.
Contact is bob@metbob.com or txt 64 277762212
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
26 March 2023
19 March 2023
Bob Blog 19 March 2023
Bob McDavitt's ideas for sailing around the South Pacific.
Disclaimer: Weather is a mix of pattern and chaos; these ideas are from the
patterned world.
Compiled Sunday 19 Mar 2023
AUTUMN EQUINOX =START OF INDIAN SUMMER
The subtropical ridge is a belt of high pressure around the globe at about
30° south and is formed by the sinking of air that has risen in
thunderstorms around the equator. This overturning of the atmosphere is
powered by the heat of the sun, in a chaotic fashion because clouds
intermittently block sunshine. You can find it on any weather map by
drawing a line along the main ridges, connecting the centres of the main
highs. The subtropical ridge gets only passing mention in meteorology
textbooks, as the zone that divides the trades winds from the 'roaring 40s'.
But in the Australia/South Pacific weather kitchen the subtropical ridge is
the top chef. And, like any moody chef, it has rhythms.
As the sun appears to go north in our winter and south in our summer, the
subtropical ridge follows it. This explains our seasons. The roaring 40s get
their strength from the temperature difference between subtropical ridge and
pole. This difference is strongest at the spring equinox (late September),
when Antarctica is at its coldest and the flywheel of the roaring 40s
extends furthest north, covering Tasman Sea/New Zealand with 'equinoctial
gales'. The autumn equinox is this Monday 20 March at 21hr24min UTC=
Tuesday Morning in Oz/Nz, when the overhead sun crosses the equator. In the
month following this, the subtropical ridge tends to lap the South
Australian coast and is generally found near central New Zealand, giving
long periods of light winds and settled weather which some call 'Indian
Summer'.
The phrase 'Indian Summer' comes from a similar series of long periods of
light winds and settled weather in North America in their autumn months
(October/ November). There is no agreement to the origin of the expression
but the one I like the best is that when their subtropical ridge visits the
prairies the local Indians would, after the first frost, light fires in the
long grass when hunting bison and the calm conditions produced a smoke haze.
El Niño weakens the subtropical ridge and tugs it north. La Niña strengthens
the subtropical ridge and keeps it in the south. I think we are now
transiting from La Nina to El Nino, and that should encourage an 'Indian
Summer' during April.
In temperate parts of South America, the phenomenon is known as "Veranico,"
"Veranito" or "Veranillo" (literally, "little summer"), and usually occurs
in early autumn, between late April and mid-May, when it is known as
"Veranico de Maio" ("May's little summer") or as "Veranito de San Juan"
("Saint John's little summer"). Its onset and duration are directly
associated with the occurrence of El Nino.
TROPICS
For a change there are no named cyclones around. There are two small
tropical depressions L1 west and L2 well-east of Vanuatu but they seem to
be more likely to fade than develop. L2 may deepen as it travels southeast
and peak at 30S on Wednesday.
The next MJO is expected to start forming in the Indian Ocean during the
next few weeks and, with a lot of hand-waving, if this season's rhythm
continues that means it may reach northern Australia around start of April.
So, there is still time for another cyclone to form in the Pacific before
the send of the season
WEATHER ZONES
South Pacific Convergence zone SPCZ
The SPCZ is from Solomons to Fiji but expected to weaken this week. Another
weak zone should linger to south of Austral Islands. There is also a
convergence zone likely along 4S from 100 to 160W.
HIGHS and LOWS
High H1 that has been lingering near 40S and south of Tahiti is expected to
move off to the east this week.
A trough and low L3 is crossing South Island on Monday fand North Island on
Tuesday, followed by a cold southerly with large swells by Wednesday.
The Large High H2 should follow this trough and cross NZ on Thursday and
Friday
The next trough and Low L4 is expected be crossing New South Wales on
Wednesday and then travel east across the Tasman and reach Aotearoa /NZ by
the weekend.
OK for travelling west across the Tasman Sea if north of 25S.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
If you would like more detail for your voyage, then check metbob.com to see
what I offer.
Or Facebook at /www.facebook.com/metbobnz/
Weathergram with graphics is at metbob.wordpress.com (subscribe/unsubscribe
at bottom).
Weathergram archive (with translator) is at weathergram.blogspot.co.nz.
Contact is bob@metbob.com or txt 64 277762212
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
Disclaimer: Weather is a mix of pattern and chaos; these ideas are from the
patterned world.
Compiled Sunday 19 Mar 2023
AUTUMN EQUINOX =START OF INDIAN SUMMER
The subtropical ridge is a belt of high pressure around the globe at about
30° south and is formed by the sinking of air that has risen in
thunderstorms around the equator. This overturning of the atmosphere is
powered by the heat of the sun, in a chaotic fashion because clouds
intermittently block sunshine. You can find it on any weather map by
drawing a line along the main ridges, connecting the centres of the main
highs. The subtropical ridge gets only passing mention in meteorology
textbooks, as the zone that divides the trades winds from the 'roaring 40s'.
But in the Australia/South Pacific weather kitchen the subtropical ridge is
the top chef. And, like any moody chef, it has rhythms.
As the sun appears to go north in our winter and south in our summer, the
subtropical ridge follows it. This explains our seasons. The roaring 40s get
their strength from the temperature difference between subtropical ridge and
pole. This difference is strongest at the spring equinox (late September),
when Antarctica is at its coldest and the flywheel of the roaring 40s
extends furthest north, covering Tasman Sea/New Zealand with 'equinoctial
gales'. The autumn equinox is this Monday 20 March at 21hr24min UTC=
Tuesday Morning in Oz/Nz, when the overhead sun crosses the equator. In the
month following this, the subtropical ridge tends to lap the South
Australian coast and is generally found near central New Zealand, giving
long periods of light winds and settled weather which some call 'Indian
Summer'.
The phrase 'Indian Summer' comes from a similar series of long periods of
light winds and settled weather in North America in their autumn months
(October/ November). There is no agreement to the origin of the expression
but the one I like the best is that when their subtropical ridge visits the
prairies the local Indians would, after the first frost, light fires in the
long grass when hunting bison and the calm conditions produced a smoke haze.
El Niño weakens the subtropical ridge and tugs it north. La Niña strengthens
the subtropical ridge and keeps it in the south. I think we are now
transiting from La Nina to El Nino, and that should encourage an 'Indian
Summer' during April.
In temperate parts of South America, the phenomenon is known as "Veranico,"
"Veranito" or "Veranillo" (literally, "little summer"), and usually occurs
in early autumn, between late April and mid-May, when it is known as
"Veranico de Maio" ("May's little summer") or as "Veranito de San Juan"
("Saint John's little summer"). Its onset and duration are directly
associated with the occurrence of El Nino.
TROPICS
For a change there are no named cyclones around. There are two small
tropical depressions L1 west and L2 well-east of Vanuatu but they seem to
be more likely to fade than develop. L2 may deepen as it travels southeast
and peak at 30S on Wednesday.
The next MJO is expected to start forming in the Indian Ocean during the
next few weeks and, with a lot of hand-waving, if this season's rhythm
continues that means it may reach northern Australia around start of April.
So, there is still time for another cyclone to form in the Pacific before
the send of the season
WEATHER ZONES
South Pacific Convergence zone SPCZ
The SPCZ is from Solomons to Fiji but expected to weaken this week. Another
weak zone should linger to south of Austral Islands. There is also a
convergence zone likely along 4S from 100 to 160W.
HIGHS and LOWS
High H1 that has been lingering near 40S and south of Tahiti is expected to
move off to the east this week.
A trough and low L3 is crossing South Island on Monday fand North Island on
Tuesday, followed by a cold southerly with large swells by Wednesday.
The Large High H2 should follow this trough and cross NZ on Thursday and
Friday
The next trough and Low L4 is expected be crossing New South Wales on
Wednesday and then travel east across the Tasman and reach Aotearoa /NZ by
the weekend.
OK for travelling west across the Tasman Sea if north of 25S.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
If you would like more detail for your voyage, then check metbob.com to see
what I offer.
Or Facebook at /www.facebook.com/metbobnz/
Weathergram with graphics is at metbob.wordpress.com (subscribe/unsubscribe
at bottom).
Weathergram archive (with translator) is at weathergram.blogspot.co.nz.
Contact is bob@metbob.com or txt 64 277762212
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
12 March 2023
Bob Blog 12 March
Bob McDavitt's ideas for sailing around the South Pacific.
Disclaimer: Weather is a mix of pattern and chaos; these ideas are from the
patterned world.
Compiled Sunday 12 Mar 2023
IS THIS THE START OF EL NINO?
Recently there has been a twinning of Lows north and south of Galapagos:
AS seen on windy.com with L1 near 5N and L2 near 10S. L2 is the remains of
Cyclone YAKU that formed a few days ago on that convergence zone that was
south of Galapagos as mentioned in my blog over the past few weeks.
Consequently, we have a belt of near equatorial winds just south of
Galapagos as shown by the purple arrow, and the trade winds have weakened,
and in places reversed for those planning to voyage from Panama to
Marquesas, normally done at this time of the year.
There is now a strong movement of sun-warmed surface water eastwards, over
3knots in places around Galapagos.
And this is now starting to pile warmer than normal water along the Peru
Coast. One of the yachts that passed thru this area yesterday described the
scene thus: "as far as the sea life is concerned, a couple of dolphin came
by a day or so ago, few birds resting on the deck at night, and that's about
as much as we have seen, had 3 fishing rods out with various types of lures
and not had a touch in 4 days I think they know not to come near this part
of the ocean."
SO much warm water has shifted that the Intertropical convergence zone ITCZ
has gone inland and there is now a lot of convective activity along the Peru
coast. Parts of Peru have had flooding and mudslides in the past week, see
floodlist.com/america/peru-floods-lambayeque-peru-march-2023 - they have had
rain amounts they haven't seen since Jan 2017 the start of an EL NINO
COSTERO event (see
www.globe.gov/web/claudiacarovera/home/blog/-/blogs/el-nino-costero-in-peru-
a-story-to-tell)
A snapshot of the clouds over the Pacific also shows how the tropical
moisture that normally forms the ITCZ has been diverted by strong winds
aloft from east of Hawaii to California. an atmospheric river.
TROPICS
The latest cyclone activity report is at zoom.earth and tropic.ssec.wisc.edu
and Tropical Cyclone Potential is from
www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/TCFP/index.html
Cyclone FREDDY continues to continue and to break records. It has a central
pressure around 980 and has made landfall for a second time over Mozambique
today. It was named on 5 Feb and is now the longest lasting tropical storm
with the greatest ACE accumulated cyclone energy.
A good summary of FREDDY (so far ) has been made by South African
meteorologist Annette Botha at www.youtube.com/watch?v=v_KpFj2OXsQ
Cyclone YAKU briefly formed off Peru.
There is still a likelihood of low pressure development around Vanuatu this
week.
The next MJO is expected to start forming in the Indian Ocean during the
next few weeks and, with a lot of hand-waving, if this season's rhythm
continues that means it may reach northern Australia around start or April.
So, there is still time for another cyclone to form in the Pacific before
the send of the season
WEATHER ZONES
South Pacific Convergence Zone SPCZ
The SPCZ is expected to remain active from Solomons to Fiji and in a weaker
zone across Southern Cooks and Austral Islands . Several small lows are
forming on these zones. A small low 10F near Southern Cooks and another 11F
between Fiji and Tonga may have strong winds next few days. but then fade. A
more intense low L2 now near Vanuatu is expected to travel slowly south
towards New Caledonia and might deepen. A smaller convergence zone is
expected to form over the Tuamotu Islands.
HIGHS and LOWS
A trough is crossing NZ on Monday followed by large High H! crossing the
Tasman sea reaching NZ on Tue/Wed, then moving off to the east along 35 to
40S.
Low L1 tonight over Lord Howe island is expected to cross Aotearoa NZ on
Thurs/Friday followed by a strong westerly flow.
Those planning to cross the Tasman Sea this week should avoid L1.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
If you would like more detail for your voyage, then check metbob.com to see
what I offer.
Or Facebook at /www.facebook.com/metbobnz/
Weathergram with graphics is at metbob.wordpress.com (subscribe/unsubscribe
at bottom).
Weathergram archive (with translator) is at weathergram.blogspot.co.nz.
Contact is bob@metbob.com or txt 64 277762212
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
Disclaimer: Weather is a mix of pattern and chaos; these ideas are from the
patterned world.
Compiled Sunday 12 Mar 2023
IS THIS THE START OF EL NINO?
Recently there has been a twinning of Lows north and south of Galapagos:
AS seen on windy.com with L1 near 5N and L2 near 10S. L2 is the remains of
Cyclone YAKU that formed a few days ago on that convergence zone that was
south of Galapagos as mentioned in my blog over the past few weeks.
Consequently, we have a belt of near equatorial winds just south of
Galapagos as shown by the purple arrow, and the trade winds have weakened,
and in places reversed for those planning to voyage from Panama to
Marquesas, normally done at this time of the year.
There is now a strong movement of sun-warmed surface water eastwards, over
3knots in places around Galapagos.
And this is now starting to pile warmer than normal water along the Peru
Coast. One of the yachts that passed thru this area yesterday described the
scene thus: "as far as the sea life is concerned, a couple of dolphin came
by a day or so ago, few birds resting on the deck at night, and that's about
as much as we have seen, had 3 fishing rods out with various types of lures
and not had a touch in 4 days I think they know not to come near this part
of the ocean."
SO much warm water has shifted that the Intertropical convergence zone ITCZ
has gone inland and there is now a lot of convective activity along the Peru
coast. Parts of Peru have had flooding and mudslides in the past week, see
floodlist.com/america/peru-floods-lambayeque-peru-march-2023 - they have had
rain amounts they haven't seen since Jan 2017 the start of an EL NINO
COSTERO event (see
www.globe.gov/web/claudiacarovera/home/blog/-/blogs/el-nino-costero-in-peru-
a-story-to-tell)
A snapshot of the clouds over the Pacific also shows how the tropical
moisture that normally forms the ITCZ has been diverted by strong winds
aloft from east of Hawaii to California. an atmospheric river.
TROPICS
The latest cyclone activity report is at zoom.earth and tropic.ssec.wisc.edu
and Tropical Cyclone Potential is from
www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/TCFP/index.html
Cyclone FREDDY continues to continue and to break records. It has a central
pressure around 980 and has made landfall for a second time over Mozambique
today. It was named on 5 Feb and is now the longest lasting tropical storm
with the greatest ACE accumulated cyclone energy.
A good summary of FREDDY (so far ) has been made by South African
meteorologist Annette Botha at www.youtube.com/watch?v=v_KpFj2OXsQ
Cyclone YAKU briefly formed off Peru.
There is still a likelihood of low pressure development around Vanuatu this
week.
The next MJO is expected to start forming in the Indian Ocean during the
next few weeks and, with a lot of hand-waving, if this season's rhythm
continues that means it may reach northern Australia around start or April.
So, there is still time for another cyclone to form in the Pacific before
the send of the season
WEATHER ZONES
South Pacific Convergence Zone SPCZ
The SPCZ is expected to remain active from Solomons to Fiji and in a weaker
zone across Southern Cooks and Austral Islands . Several small lows are
forming on these zones. A small low 10F near Southern Cooks and another 11F
between Fiji and Tonga may have strong winds next few days. but then fade. A
more intense low L2 now near Vanuatu is expected to travel slowly south
towards New Caledonia and might deepen. A smaller convergence zone is
expected to form over the Tuamotu Islands.
HIGHS and LOWS
A trough is crossing NZ on Monday followed by large High H! crossing the
Tasman sea reaching NZ on Tue/Wed, then moving off to the east along 35 to
40S.
Low L1 tonight over Lord Howe island is expected to cross Aotearoa NZ on
Thurs/Friday followed by a strong westerly flow.
Those planning to cross the Tasman Sea this week should avoid L1.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
If you would like more detail for your voyage, then check metbob.com to see
what I offer.
Or Facebook at /www.facebook.com/metbobnz/
Weathergram with graphics is at metbob.wordpress.com (subscribe/unsubscribe
at bottom).
Weathergram archive (with translator) is at weathergram.blogspot.co.nz.
Contact is bob@metbob.com or txt 64 277762212
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
05 March 2023
Bob Blog 5 March
Bob McDavitt's ideas for sailing around the South Pacific.
Disclaimer: Weather is a mix of pattern and chaos; these ideas are from the
patterned world.
Compiled Sunday 5 Mar 2023
REVIEW OF THE LAST MONTH (February 2023)
Here is a link to a YouTube clip giving an animated loop of the isobars and
streamlines in the South Pacific for February 2023
youtu.be/G-N1Km9_pR4
Feb 2023 will be long remembered for Cyclone GABRIELLE (mid-month) over
Norfolk Island and Te Ika o Maui / North Island. The South Pacific
Convergence zone drifted south into the Coral Sea and formed GABRIELLE and
JUDY (then KEVIN in early March).
Sea Surface temperature anomalies from psl.noaa.gov/map/clim/sst.shtml
The cool waters of La Nina continue to relax. A marine heat wave continues
to affect southern NZ, especially Fjordland, bleaching the coral there.
There is also a marine heat wave around the Falklands. Since these hotspots
are 180 deg longitude apart this suggests there may be a connection between
them and stalling of atmospheric wave 4.
Indeed this has been studied and seems to be valid . See
www.nature.com/articles/s41467-021-25160-y
Average isobars for past month (below)
From www.psl.noaa.gov/map/images/fnl/slp_30b.fnl.html
The northern subtropical ridge has shifted north onto central Europe and
intensified in the North Pacific. The southern hemisphere pattern is much
the same as last month despite the daily drama. In February Canada is at its
coldest and storm paths encourage snow/ice storms across USA but in 2023
there were two dramatic storms.
Pressure anomolies for past month (below)
The anomaly pattern also shows the shift and intensification of the northern
subtropical ridge, as well as several subtle changes.
TROPICS
The positive boost of the MJO cycle that has been affecting the Western
Pacific over past few weeks is expected to fade away over next two weeks
allowing the South Pacific Convergence zone to return to normal.
FREDDY reformed over the sea and is expected to make another landfall onto
Mozambique this week.
JUDY and KEVIV ploughed thru Vanuatu last week,
and KEVIN is expected to sideswipe southern Tonga tonight.
The potential for development across the Coral Sea remains above normal, and
something just may brew there next weekend.
WEATHER ZONES
South Pacific Convergence zone SPCZ
The SPCZ is expected to remain active from Solomons to Fiji and another
convergence one is expected to remain active across Cook and Austral
Islands. A tropical low may form in the Coral Sea at the end of the week.
HIGHS and LOWS
TC KEVIN or L1 is expected to continue to the SE and remain this week as a
large low well east of NZ.
High H1 in the south Tasman Sea starts the week by feeding cooer SE winds
onto NZ,
and then travels slowly north across the country bringing a few sunny days,
and then moves off to the east along 30S
allowing a trough to reach NZ by Friday
preceded by NW winds and followed by southerlies.
Mainly easterly winds across the north Tasman Sea this week should help
voyages to the Brisbane area.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
If you would like more detail for your voyage, then check metbob.com to see
what I offer.
Or Facebook at /www.facebook.com/metbobnz/
Weathergram with graphics is at metbob.wordpress.com (subscribe/unsubscribe
at bottom).
Weathergram archive (with translator) is at weathergram.blogspot.co.nz.
Contact is bob@metbob.com or txt 64 277762212
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
Disclaimer: Weather is a mix of pattern and chaos; these ideas are from the
patterned world.
Compiled Sunday 5 Mar 2023
REVIEW OF THE LAST MONTH (February 2023)
Here is a link to a YouTube clip giving an animated loop of the isobars and
streamlines in the South Pacific for February 2023
youtu.be/G-N1Km9_pR4
Feb 2023 will be long remembered for Cyclone GABRIELLE (mid-month) over
Norfolk Island and Te Ika o Maui / North Island. The South Pacific
Convergence zone drifted south into the Coral Sea and formed GABRIELLE and
JUDY (then KEVIN in early March).
Sea Surface temperature anomalies from psl.noaa.gov/map/clim/sst.shtml
The cool waters of La Nina continue to relax. A marine heat wave continues
to affect southern NZ, especially Fjordland, bleaching the coral there.
There is also a marine heat wave around the Falklands. Since these hotspots
are 180 deg longitude apart this suggests there may be a connection between
them and stalling of atmospheric wave 4.
Indeed this has been studied and seems to be valid . See
www.nature.com/articles/s41467-021-25160-y
Average isobars for past month (below)
From www.psl.noaa.gov/map/images/fnl/slp_30b.fnl.html
The northern subtropical ridge has shifted north onto central Europe and
intensified in the North Pacific. The southern hemisphere pattern is much
the same as last month despite the daily drama. In February Canada is at its
coldest and storm paths encourage snow/ice storms across USA but in 2023
there were two dramatic storms.
Pressure anomolies for past month (below)
The anomaly pattern also shows the shift and intensification of the northern
subtropical ridge, as well as several subtle changes.
TROPICS
The positive boost of the MJO cycle that has been affecting the Western
Pacific over past few weeks is expected to fade away over next two weeks
allowing the South Pacific Convergence zone to return to normal.
FREDDY reformed over the sea and is expected to make another landfall onto
Mozambique this week.
JUDY and KEVIV ploughed thru Vanuatu last week,
and KEVIN is expected to sideswipe southern Tonga tonight.
The potential for development across the Coral Sea remains above normal, and
something just may brew there next weekend.
WEATHER ZONES
South Pacific Convergence zone SPCZ
The SPCZ is expected to remain active from Solomons to Fiji and another
convergence one is expected to remain active across Cook and Austral
Islands. A tropical low may form in the Coral Sea at the end of the week.
HIGHS and LOWS
TC KEVIN or L1 is expected to continue to the SE and remain this week as a
large low well east of NZ.
High H1 in the south Tasman Sea starts the week by feeding cooer SE winds
onto NZ,
and then travels slowly north across the country bringing a few sunny days,
and then moves off to the east along 30S
allowing a trough to reach NZ by Friday
preceded by NW winds and followed by southerlies.
Mainly easterly winds across the north Tasman Sea this week should help
voyages to the Brisbane area.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
If you would like more detail for your voyage, then check metbob.com to see
what I offer.
Or Facebook at /www.facebook.com/metbobnz/
Weathergram with graphics is at metbob.wordpress.com (subscribe/unsubscribe
at bottom).
Weathergram archive (with translator) is at weathergram.blogspot.co.nz.
Contact is bob@metbob.com or txt 64 277762212
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
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