Compiled Sun 28 April 2019
Bob McDavitt’s ideas for sailing around the South Pacific.
Disclaimer: Weather is a mix of pattern and chaos; these ideas are from the patterned world.
Another Amateur Radio or HAM network for sailors around the Tasman Sea is TONY’S MARITIME NET
Daily at 2100UTC (9am NZST) on 14315USB.
The net was started about 40 years ago by Tony, ZLIATE (now a silent key) and in those early days boats could be heard from the other side of the world. With the sunspot cycle being at its low, that is no longer possible but we seem to manage. This is a very friendly amateur radio net that provides a means of communication between maritime mobiles and land-based stations. There are net controllers on both sides of the Tasman and all stations relay reports when conditions are poor.
Jonathan Robinson the Fleet director of SEA MERCY has asked me to add their 20 page web link to my weathergram this week: imags.com.au/sea_mercy/
Basically, SEA MERCY continues to help around the South Pacific with health care from a floating clinic and help from sailing vessels volunteering to deliver medical aid to villages affected by cyclones. There are other Sea Mercy programs offering disaster relief, Education and Economic aid.
It is a registered USA charity based in Oregon, and has developed key international partnerships. Sea Mercy Fiji operates from Port Denarau, and Sea Mercy Australia was established in Dec 2017. It is looking for more volunteer yachts, so if you feel the urge the check out this web site.
Another example of chaos: both from weather and a whale in short succession:
From Graham ad Gina on SV SUPERMOLLI
We were off 50 miles East Cape (NZ), Tues 16 April, around 1100hrs when we encountered 2 closely following event You will see the results of a rogue wave and a Whale in the attached photos, all this occurred in about a five-minute period. Bit spooky you see but we are here to share the event by Pic's taken after.
No one hurt, Gina was down below and flew horizontally across the cabin but managed to grab the bridging grab rope we have installed across U Dining area wings. See the Knife and onion peel in the ceiling, not good housekeeping
More chaos- SV Flying Fish was hit by a rogue wave on Wed 24 April between NZ and Fiji
Read the blog at flyingfishsail.wordpress.com/
And here’s a call for a watch for a drifting yacht:
Yves Jaegar was sailing his 44ft Oceanis Beneteau SV FETIA UO UO” when it was hit by a storm on September 3, 2018 between Fakarava and Tahiti. He was rescued by the JRCC of Papeete and had to abandon his sailboat.
Since then, so far, there has been no news of his boat – it probably drifted across the Cooks Islands and Samoa/Tonga, and may now be further west. If you have heard something please contact <yves.jaeger.at.mail.pf>
(replace the .at. with @, I wrote it this way to stop Yves getting spam)
After a few quiet weeks the MJO active phase popped up in the Indian Ocean and has triggered Three Tropical cyclones. KENNETH has now weakened by has brought wide spread damage to Mozambique--- one month after the damage from TC IDAI. Warmer than normal seas.
FANI seems to be heading to East coast of India or maybe Bangladesh. BEWARE.
LORNA should travel south over open sea.
TC in the tropics at present, with latest cyclone activity may be seen at tropic.ssec.wisc.edu and TCFP tropical Cyclone Formation Potential at www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/TCFP/index.html
MJO’s active phase in the Indian Ocean last week may cross northern Australia this coming week and reach the Western Pacific in a few weeks (and weaken) see www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/mjo.shtml
SPCZ has moderate intensity from PNG/Solomon Islands to Northern Vanuatu and north of Fiji, and may occasionally visit Samoa.
A trough with squalls between Fiji and NZ tonight is expected to travel southeast over next few days. The trough is likely to reach French Polynesia (Tahiti and Tuamotu Group) on local Tuesday to Thursday this week along with enhanced E to NE winds. Avoid.
Subtropical ridge (STR) / Australia
HIGH over 1030hPa to east of 160W should travel only slowly east along 35 to 40S this week with enhanced E to NE winds on its northern side.
HIGH is expected to travel east across central Tasman sea from Monday to Friday, maintaining enhanced SE winds between New Cal and Australia until Thursday. On Thursday/ Friday a trough is expected to travel east across NSW and Southern Queensland, followed by a period of lighter southerly winds which may provide a good enough weather pattern for departing from Australia to Noumea—depends on your boat speed.
South of this passing High there should be an opportunity for a voyage for Hobart to NZ.
Tasman Sea/ New Zealand
Trough is expected to cross the North island on Monday followed by a southerly to SE flow.
So, from Wednesday to Friday there should be an OK start for a voyage for NZ to the tropics
Trough is expected to travel east across NSW on Fri/ Sat 4/5May and then travel east across South Tasman Sea and Southern NZ from Sun 5 May to Tuesday 7 May.
Panama to Marquesas
Gulf of Panama is expected to have some northerly winds this week, so it’s ok to go. ITCZ between 5N and 3N seems to be having a quiet time this week, after a few squally weeks. Some calm zones. The variable zones of SW winds on the way to Galapagos are becoming more dominant. S to SE trade winds from 5S 100W to Marquesas.
If you would like more detail for your voyage, then check metbob.com to see what I offer.
Or Facebook at /www.facebook.com/metbobnz/
Weathergram with graphics is at metbob.wordpress.com (subscribe/unsubscribe at bottom).
Weathergram archive (with translator) is at weathergram.blogspot.co.nz.
Contact is firstname.lastname@example.org or txt 6427 7762212