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Bob McDavitt's ideas for sailing weather around the South pacific

24 September 2023

Bob Blog

Bob McDavitt's ideas for sailing around the South Pacific.
Disclaimer: Weather is a mix of pattern and chaos; these ideas are from the
patterned world.
Compiled Sunday 24 Sep 2023

DAYLIGHT SAVING
The number of countries that mark daylight saving time is slowly decreasing,
but it is still observed in Australia and New Zealand.
Ne
In Australia, saving is observed in New South Wales, Victoria, South
Australia, Tasmania, the Australian Capital Territory and Norfolk Island.
These places start next Sunday, 1 October, the first Sunday in October.
Daylight Saving Time continues in these places until the first Sunday in
April (3am Daylight time ->2am standard time), 7 April 2024.

TROPICS
Former cyclone LEE knocked out power over Canada's maritime provinces.
Ophelia made landfall over Northern Carolina.

WEATHER ZONES
The South Pacific Convergence zone is building over Solomon Islands to
Tuvalu to Tokelau , with an active trough/convergence zone from near
Suwarrow to over Tahiti. An MJO , or burst of tropical energy is expected to
move onto Coral Sea and Micronesia zone over next few weeks.

HIGHS and LOWS:

HIGH H1 Is intense and moving slowly along 35S well east of NZ. It has been
blocking the front over NZ, slowing the movement of its rain. around 400mm
of rain is expected for the Eastern ranges of North Island next two days.

LOW L1 is expected to form north of NZ by Monday in the trough on the back
of H! L1 is expected to travel south across eastern NZ next few days. Avoid.

Low L2 is expected to travel NE into the central Tasman Sea by mid-week and
then weaken crossing North Island on Thursday. Another Front from the SW is
expected to deepen into a low over central NZ this weekend. Avoid/

In tandem with L2 Highs H2 and H3 should form of the Australian coast on
Tuesday and Thursday then fade as they go NE. Another HIGH should follow the
weekend front and then settle near North Island next week.

Avoid arriving in Northland on Thursday and Saturday this coming week. Looks
OK anytime next week.

>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
If you would like more details about your voyage, then check metbob.com to
see what I offer.
Or Facebook at /www.facebook.com/metbobnz/
Weathergram with graphics is at metbob.wordpress.com (subscribe/unsubscribe
at bottom).
Weathergram archive (with translator) is at weathergram.blogspot.co.nz.
Contact is bob@metbob.com or text 64277762212.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>

17 September 2023

Bob Gram 17 Sep

Bob McDavitt's ideas for sailing around the South Pacific.
Disclaimer: Weather is a mix of pattern and chaos; these ideas are from the
patterned world.
Compiled Sunday 17Sep 2023

The incoming El Nino is starting to show its colours.

El Nino is the name given to the period when sea surface temperature SST
over the eastern equatorial Pacific is above normal. (La Nina is the name
given when sea temperature are cooler).

In the atmosphere we monitor ENSO = El Nino/Southern Oscillation and its
impact on the weather map by using. the Southern Oscillation Index SOI (30
day running mean). This is based on the standardized difference in the
barometer readings between Tahiti and Darwin, in other words it counts the
average number of isobars between them on the weather map. When the index
stays below -10 (on the scale shown here) for more than a month we call it
an EL NINO event.

And recent data is showing we are now in El Nino territory.

The Ocean:
The parameter used from the ocean is based on the sea surface temperatures
in the equatorial eastern Pacific and called the NINO 3.4 SST anomaly.
International research Institute IRI have compiled the predictions for all
the models as shown here from iri.columbia.edu. The consensus is that
NINO3.4 will peak during NDJ= November, December, January. A strong El Nino
for the coming Summer.

Expected impact in the South Pacific
An El Nino is associated with weaker trade winds, and this tends to shift
the subtropical ridge north allowing for stronger westerly winds south of
40S. The peak cyclone prone area shifts from Vanuatu towards the dateline.
In New Zealand the stronger westerly winds from the Tasman Sea arrive cool
and moist onto the western side of the main divide. They are deflected
upwards dropping their ample rains and filling up the hydro lakes. These
winds then descend across the plains on the east coast hot and dry due to
the foehn effect. In seems likely that by the end of the year eastern New
Zealand (and lots of SE Australia) will be ripe for bush fires.

However, each El Nino event is different and even a strong El Nino only
explains around 20% of the observed weather variance.

I asked Chat Gpt to turn that into a poem and it came up with the following:

Amidst New Zealand's land of pristine grace,
El Niño's touch, a climatic dance we trace.
From Tasman Sea, cool, moist winds do rise,
To fill our lakes, a watery, sweet surprise.
They sweep o'er mountains, their path deflects,
As foehn effect, along the east, reflects.
Hot, dry winds now kiss the coastal land,
In El Niño's sway, a shifting, arid brand.
Yet, in this struggle with the altered wind,
New Zealand's spirit, strong, will not rescind,
For though El Niño tests our land anew,
Our hearts and hope endure, forever true.

Hmm, somewhat flowery and disjointed I think.

TROPICS
Central Japan was drenched by slow-moving Tropical Storm Yun-yeung.
Hurricane Lee faded away as Hurricane MARGOT and NIGEL churned the central
Atlantic.
Depression TWELVE-E is moving west across central north Pacific.

WEATHER ZONES
The South Pacific Convergence zone is well north of normal from Solomons to
Tuvalu and there is an extension zone lingering across roughly from Suwarrow
to Tahiti.

HIGHS and LOWS:
HIGH H1 Is intense and moving slowly along 30 to 40S crossing northern NZ on
Tuesday and Wednesday. It has an intense SQUASH ZONE on its norther side
between the Cooks and Fiji from 25S to 12S and along 22S from south of Fiji
to east of New Caledonia. Avoid.
When H1 moves off to the east later this week there should be an easing of
the SE winds in he Coral Sea.
There is disturbed westerly flow over TSMAN SEA /NZ area south of around
38S. This doesn't interfere much with arrivals in Northland, except for
maybe some strong northerly winds there on Saturday 23 Sep with a passing
front.

>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
If you would like more details about your voyage, then check metbob.com to
see what I offer.
Or Facebook at /www.facebook.com/metbobnz/
Weathergram with graphics is at metbob.wordpress.com (subscribe/unsubscribe
at bottom).
Weathergram archive (with translator) is at weathergram.blogspot.co.nz.
Contact is bob@metbob.com or text 64277762212.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>

10 September 2023

Bob Blog 10 Sep 23

Bob McDavitt's ideas for sailing around the South Pacific.
Disclaimer: Weather is a mix of pattern and chaos; these ideas are from the
patterned world.
Compiled Sunday 10 Sep 2023

The MJO
The MJO or Madden Julian Oscillation is the name for a bust of convection in
the tropics that travels eastwards around the equator from Indian Ocean to
Pacific Ocean. Its passage over any one place takes around a week and the
full journey from Indian to Pacific takes around 4 to 6 weeks. It's boost of
extra energy is associated with triggering tropical cyclones. Therefore, it
provides a forecasting tool.
The data shows an MJO over the Coral Sea during the coming week.

But the data description is rather complicated and can be off-putting to
non-meteorologists:
One of my regular readers added this to his blog at
https://twoatsea.com/mjo-who/
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
I was trying learn more about the MJO as it's coming to visit us in
Indonesia this week. I went to NOAA's website about the MJO and immediately
stumbled into this very confusing paragraph.
Forecast of MJO associated anomalous OLR for the next 15 days from the
ensemble mean GFS based on forecasts of RMM1 and RMM2. Blue (yellow/red)
shades show negative (positive) OLR anomalies and enhanced (suppressed)
convection. Forecasts do not include direct contributions from other climate
modes such as ENSO, monsoons, etc. - only the MJO.
I'm positive (negative) that I don't (do) understand, so I asked ChatGPT the
following:
I don't understand this paragraph. Can you explain it to me like I'm 5?
And Chat came to my rescue:
Of course! Let's break it down:
Imagine the Earth has a big weather "dance" going on. This dance has
different moves or patterns that change the weather. One of these dance
moves is called the MJO.
Now, scientists have a special tool (like a magic crystal ball) called the
GFS. This tool tries to guess what the MJO dance move will look like in the
next 15 days. But it's not just one guess; they make many guesses and then
take an average, which they call the "ensemble mean."
To understand the dance move better, they look at two things: RMM1 and RMM2.
Think of these as two special clues that help them guess the MJO dance move.
Now, for the colors:
Blue means there will be more clouds and rain (they call this "enhanced
convection").
Yellow or red means there will be fewer clouds and less rain (they call this
"suppressed convection").
Lastly, even though there are many other dance moves (like ENSO or monsoons)
that can change the weather, this guess is only about the MJO dance move.
They're not looking at the other moves right now.
So, in simple words, scientists are using a tool to guess how a specific
weather pattern (MJO) will change the clouds and rain in the next 15 days.
Blue means more rain, and yellow/red means less rain. And they're only
focusing on this one pattern, not the others.
-Rich
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
Inspired by the idea of using Chat GPT to rewrite the MJO description I
asked it to turn its answer into a sonnet:

MJO, a rhythmic dance in the sky,
Like music playing, way up high.
It's like a big wave, moving through the air,
Bringing changes, everywhere it dares.

Imagine clouds, like fluffy cotton candy,
They gather and move, just like a trolley.
MJO makes them dance and sway,
Sometimes it brings rain, other times a sunny day.

It travels along the equator and the tropics,
From the Indian Ocean to the Western Pacific.
It's a weather pattern, you see,
That affects the world, including you and me.

So, MJO is like a weather show,
With clouds and winds, it likes to go.
But don't you worry, it's part of nature's plan,
Just watch and learn, like a weather fan.

Enjoy the poetry (perhaps). As for the MJO: this week it may encourage
activity between the Coral Sea and Vanuatu.

TROPICS
HAIKU tracked back onto Taiwan. SAOLA skirted Hong Kong. These systems were
followed by clouds that brought the heaviest rain in over 140 years to Hong
Kong. JOVA is fading between Hawaii and Mexico; LEE and MARGOT are in the
Atlantic.

WEATHER ZONES
The South Pacific Convergence zone is expected to stretch from Solomons to
Samoa. A build-up of convection in the Coral Sea is expected to become
squally around Vanuatu on Thursday and then travel SE and deepen into a low
1 south of Fiji/Tonga in next few days. Timing may change. Avoid.
Passing troughs over and to the southeast of Southern Cooks.
HIGHS and LOWS: a steady eastwards progression this week
HIGH H1 east of Chatham Islands is travelling slowly ENE from 40S to 35S.
The trough in the south Tasman Sea is expected to cross NZ on Tuesday and
another on Thursday /Friday.
Then High H2 is expected to cross central Tasman Sea on Thu/Fri and northern
NZ over the weekend.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
If you would like more details about your voyage, then check metbob.com to
see what I offer.
Or Facebook at /www.facebook.com/metbobnz/
Weathergram with graphics is at metbob.wordpress.com (subscribe/unsubscribe
at bottom).
Weathergram archive (with translator) is at weathergram.blogspot.co.nz.
Contact is bob@metbob.com or text 64277762212.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>

03 September 2023

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Bob Blog 3 Sep

Bob McDavitt's ideas for sailing around the South Pacific.
Disclaimer: Weather is a mix of pattern and chaos; these ideas are from the
patterned world.
Compiled Sunday 3 Sep 2023

A review of last month's weather
Here is a link to a YouTube clip giving an animated loop of the isobars and
streamlines in the South Pacific for the last month at youtu.be/XOKGeaFSW3k

August shows several bursts from the Southern Ocean onto New Zealand,
showing that El Nino-type weather patterns are now occurring. Sometimes lows
lingered over northern NZ due to blocking Highs south of Tahiti. This is a
continuation of the dominate pattern in July. Here is an example of the
August pattern (8 August


Sea Surface temperature anomalies from psl.noaa.gov/map/clim/sst.shtml

Sea temperature anomalies are much the same as they were last month. Even
the El Nino warm patch is much the same. After the warmest July on the
global record, August is still record- breaking but not quite as intense.


Average isobars for past month (below)
Subtropical ridges have relaxed. The Asian monsoon is travelling east as per
normal. The trough area around New Zealand has faded.

Pressure anomalies for past month (below)
Higher than normal over Australia and NZ, and lower than normal over SE
Pacific and South America. Not much change in the Northern Hemisphere but
lower than normal pressure in the monsoon over easter Asia.

Zooming into the NZ area
Relaxing of the trough around NZ. A subtle southward shift in the
subtropical ridge. South-westerly isobars now cover NZ.

TROPICS
The South Pacific Convergence zone is expected to stay north from Solomons
to northern Vanuatu to Samoa. There is also a trough /convergence zone
mainly lingering over Austral Islands.

Tahiti to Tonga? Good winds for this voyage this week, but maybe some 3m
swells around Tahiti.

HIGHS and LOWS

HIGH H1 near Chatham Islands east of NZ is a blocking High and expected to
travel slowly NE/

Low L1 is a blocked Low and is being directed off to the south and
weakening. By end of the week, it is expected to be replaced by a trough
from Tasmania forming a new Low that is expected to cross the South Island
late in the week, then another over all of NZ early next week.

Tropics to NZ: look Ok this week, but avoid arrival on Mon/Tue 11/12
September

>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
If you would like more details about your voyage, then check metbob.com to
see what I offer.
Or Facebook at /www.facebook.com/metbobnz/
Weathergram with graphics is at metbob.wordpress.com (subscribe/unsubscribe
at bottom).
Weathergram archive (with translator) is at weathergram.blogspot.co.nz.
Contact is bob@metbob.com or text 64277762212.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>

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