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Bob McDavitt's ideas for sailing weather around the South pacific

29 December 2019

Bob Blog 29

 

Bob Blog 29 Dec 2019

WEATHERGRAM

YOTREPS

 

Compiled Sun 29 Dec 2019

Bob McDavitt’s ideas for sailing around the South Pacific.

Disclaimer: Weather is a mix of pattern and chaos; these ideas are from the patterned world.

 

On Friday 27 Dec tropical cyclone SARAI went south past the west of Fiji

 

Using windy.com we can view the temperature/rain/wind and barometric pressure at the Nadi Airport observing station, showing the rise and fall and rise again of the wind as SARAI passed by. Peak gust 58 knots. (See illustrated edition). .

 

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The Tropics

The latest cyclone activity report is at tropic.ssec.wisc.edu and TCFP tropical Cyclone Formation Potential at http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/TCFP/index.html

 

TC PANFONE brought destruction to Philippines early last week

TC SARAI is currently heading for Nuku’alofa in Tonga but may swing left and go northeast.

There is high potential for TC formation between Guam and Palau this week

 

WATHER ZONES

SPCZ=South Pacific Convergence zone.

The SPCZ is mainly located from TC SARAI to Samoa to Southern Cooks his week.

So, it’s not a week for sailing around the South Pacific.

 

Subtropical ridge (STR)

HIGH in the central to north Tasman Sea is blocked this week and will be reinforced by a new High over the south Tasman sea on Friday.

 

Tasman Sea /NZ/Aus

Some deep lows are expected east of NZ this week , blocking a High is the Tasman Sea and maintaining a SW flow over NZ.

These SW/S winds may often reach to 25S this week. Better to get to NZ next week.

 

For Noumea to Aus: With a blocked High in the Tasman sea, should be OK with SE winds for this route this week .

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If you would like more detail for your voyage, then check metbob.com to see what I offer.

Or Facebook at /www.facebook.com/metbobnz/

Weathergram with graphics is at metbob.wordpress.com (subscribe/unsubscribe at bottom).

Weathergram archive (with translator) is at weathergram.blogspot.co.nz.

Contact is bob@metbob.com or txt 6427 7762212

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22 December 2019

Bob Blog 22 Dec

WEATHERGRAM

YOTREPS

Compiled Sun 22 Dec 2019

Bob McDavitt’s ideas for sailing around the South Pacific.

Disclaimer: Weather is a mix of pattern and chaos; these ideas are from the patterned world.

On the 19th Dec, Australia has its hottest day for a second straight day as area face ‘catastrophic” fire conditions

See www.washingtonpost.com/weather/2019/12/19/australia-has-its-hottest-day-second-straight-day-areas-face-catastrophic-fire-conditions/

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The Tropics

The latest cyclone activity report is at tropic.ssec.wisc.edu and TCFP tropical Cyclone Formation Potential at www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/TCFP/index.html

 TC PANFONE is at 999hPa traveling west-northwest just to north of Palau, towards Philippines

There is high potential for cyclone formation to NW of Fiji this week.

 

SPCZ=South Pacific Convergence zone.

The SPCZ is situated from PNG to Samoa and then fades off to the SE.

It is activating this week and expected to form tropical lows NW of Samoa and north of Fiji.

One of these is likely to deepen into a cycle by Friday and has 50% chance (1 model out of 2) to move to the Fiji area by the weekend.

SPCZ stretches into a trough /convergence zone over the Niue to Tahiti area,

So, it’s not a week for sailing around the South Pacific.

 

Subtropical ridge (STR)

HIGH in the south Tasman Sea on Monday should stay there this week and send smaller Highs across the South Island and central NZ on Wednesday and again next Monday.

Tasman Sea /NZ/Aus

Low to NE of North Island on Monday expected to go off to SE by end of Tuesday.

Trough expected to travel NE across the country on Thursday and Friday followed by a SW flow.

Outlook for next week is for High to stay put feeding more troughs and SW winds to NZ.

 

For Noumea to Aus: With a blocked High in the Tasman sea, should be OK with SE winds for this route this week .

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If you would like more detail for your voyage, then check metbob.com to see what I offer.

Or Facebook at /www.facebook.com/metbobnz/

Weathergram with graphics is at metbob.wordpress.com (subscribe/unsubscribe at bottom).

Weathergram archive (with translator) is at weathergram.blogspot.co.nz.

Contact is bob@metbob.com or txt 6427 7762212

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15 December 2019

Bob Blog 15Dec

WEATHERGRAM

YOTREPS

Compiled Sun 15 Dec 2019

Bob McDavitt’s ideas for sailing around the South Pacific.

Disclaimer: Weather is a mix of pattern and chaos; these ideas are from the patterned world.

-=-=-=-=-=

The Tropics

The latest cyclone activity report is at tropic.ssec.wisc.edu and TCFP tropical Cyclone Formation Potential at www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/TCFP/index.html

There are no active cyclones around at present.

There is potential for cyclone formation showing in Micronesia stretching to south of Philippines.

 

WATHER ZONES

SPCZ=South Pacific Convergence zone.

The SPCZ is expected to be active all the way across the South Pacific this week from PNG across northern Vanuatu to Fiji, and from Samoa to middle part of French Polynesia. Maybe better to sit back and relax rather than island hopping.

The trend is for this to become more unsettled next week

Passing trough across Samoa on Wed/Thu weakening further east.

 

Subtropical ridge (STR)

HIGH that has been blocking to east of NZ is expected to move off on Wednesday UTC.

Next HIGH is expected to form in the Tasman sea on Tuesday local and gets knocked off to the Ne and fade by Thursday.

Another HIGH may then form in the Tasman by Friday local and then visit northern NZ on Saturday.

Tasman Sea /NZ/Aus

Main feature this week is a 994hpa low expected to cross central NZ on Tuesday local with large swells in the Tasman. followed by a SW flow on Wednesday, and a trough on Friday.

Outlook for next week is more SW flow and a possible low 1007 for Northland on Boxing day. followed by more SW flow. Not a good week to arrive in Northland from the tropics, or to get south for the “summer”.

For Noumea to Aus: A trough and southerly wind change in Noumea on Monday and Tuesday the looks OK.

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If you would like more detail for your voyage, then check metbob.com to see what I offer.

Or Facebook at /www.facebook.com/metbobnz/

Weathergram with graphics is at metbob.wordpress.com (subscribe/unsubscribe at bottom).

Weathergram archive (with translator) is at weathergram.blogspot.co.nz.

Contact is bob@metbob.com or txt 6427 7762212

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08 December 2019

Bob Blog 8 Dec

WEATHERGRAM

YOTREPS

 

Compiled Sun 08 Dec 2019

Bob McDavitt’s ideas for sailing around the South Pacific.

Disclaimer: Weather is a mix of pattern and chaos; these ideas are from the patterned world.

 

REVIEW OF THE LAST WEEK

 

A series of fronts with heavy rain and strong winds battered South and central NZ in the past week. The main cause of this “river of wind” has been the squash zone between and quasi-stationary HIGH east of NZ and a very deep (at times below 960 hPa) Low caught in an upper low so that it looped as shown in the illustrated edition for Sat 7 Dec. The red arrows track the Low back to 2 Nov.

 

The HIGH managed to keep winds mostly light NW for yachts arriving in northern NZ from the tropics in the past week (except for last Tuesday night with a passing front).

 

The wild weather is expected to cross the North Island overnight tonight, then weaken away.

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The Tropics

The latest cyclone activity report is at tropic.ssec.wisc.edu and TCFP tropical Cyclone Formation Potential at www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/TCFP/index.html

 

Active cyclones at present is AMBALI and BELNA in South Indian Ocean. AMBALI almost broke the Global record for central pressure drop , intensifying from cat 2 to borderline cat 5 in 24 hours. (PATRICIA holds the global record) . At one stage last week there were 5 tropical systems in the West Indian Ocean.

 

There is potential for cyclone formation showing in the Coral sea and about around Guam.

 

WATHER ZONES

SPCZ=South Pacific Convergence zone.

The SPCZ is expected to be active in the north Coral Sea and from Samoa to southern parts of French Polynesia, mainly stretching from Solomons, across northern Vanuatu to between Fiji and Samoa to Southern Cooks.

 

Subtropical ridge (STR)

HIGH east of NZ over 1025hPa is expected to finally move a little to the east on Monday a n d then hover around 40 to50S 150E until Sun 15 Dec.

Next High is expected to enter the Tasman Sea (from East Aus) on Monday and slowly spread east, reaching Northern NZ on Thu and Fri then further east on Sat and Sunday.

 

Tasman Sea /NZ/Aus

Trough crossing North island tonight, followed by SW S flow on Tuesday and Wednesday, the light winds from a passing high on Thursday /Friday. Next trough from the Tasman is expected over northern NZ on Sat/Sun/Mon 14/15/16Dec local followed by a SW flow for several days. .

 

For Noumea to Aus: With mainly High pressure in Tasman Sea this week it OK until Thursday. However, passing trof 1009 over Noumea this weekend/early next week.

 

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If you would like more detail for your voyage, then check metbob.com to see what I offer.

Or Facebook at /www.facebook.com/metbobnz/

Weathergram with graphics is at metbob.wordpress.com (subscribe/unsubscribe at bottom).

Weathergram archive (with translator) is at weathergram.blogspot.co.nz.

Contact is bob@metbob.com or txt 6427 7762212

>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>

01 December 2019

Bob Blog 1 dec 2019

WEATHERGRAM

YOTREPS

Compiled Sun 01 Dec 2019

 

Bob McDavitt’s ideas for sailing around the South Pacific.

Disclaimer: Weather is a mix of pattern and chaos; these ideas are from the patterned world.

 

REVIEW OF THE LAST MONTH

Sea Surface temperature anomalies as at start of November compared with the end of November may be seen at www.weatherzone.com.u/climate/indicator_sst.jsp?lt=global&lc=global&c=ssta

 

The anomolies in the North Pacific are unchanged. There continues to be a build-up in heat in the Tasman Sea. And sea-temperatures around Galapagos are on the warm (El Nino) side of normal.

 

To see how the annual weather cycle and the seasons are working out, we can check the average isobar maps for past 30 days and their anomaly from www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/map/images/fnl/slp_30b.fnl.html

 

The subtropical ridge in the southern hemisphere has expanded southwards. The area below 1010hPa in the equatorial area has also expanded southwards.

 

Higher than normal air pressure over arctic and Antarctic are helping send cold air equator-wards into the mid-latitudes. There are four low-pressure anomolies around the Southern hemisphere mid-latitudes. Siberian High has formed stronger than normal.

 

Zooming into the NZ area, and comparing monthly anomalies from last month with now,(but with a change of colouring), shows that the subtropical ridge STR has strengthened and expanded southwards, but the 1010 isobar is still over central NZ .

 

It remains most intense over SW of Australia, most intense spot has shifted from eastern Australia to west of Australia. Isobars over NZ have weakened, with the 1010hPa isobar in much the same place as last month, and 1005 hPa now further south. Now a NW anomalis flow over NZ

 

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The Tropics

The latest cyclone activity report is at tropic.ssec.wisc.edu and TCFP tropical Cyclone Formation Potential at www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/TCFP/index.html (but not this weekend)

Active cyclones at present is KAMMURI aiming for northern Philippines.

 

WATHER ZONES

SPCZ=South Pacific Convergence zone.

Tropical cyclone RITA briefly reached Cat 1 (the lowest) just east of northern Vanuatu last week, so our cyclone season has started.

The SPCZ is expected to have a normal week, mainly stretching from Solomons, across northern Vanuatu to between Fiji and Samoa to Southern Cooks.

There is expected to be a passing trough further east.

 

Subtropical ridge (STR)

HIGH east of NZ over 1025hPa is expected to linger near 35S 160W this week. maintaining a disturbed NW flow over the North Island.

Next High is expected to enter the Tasman Sea (from East Aus) over the coming weekend 7-8 Dec.

 

Tasman Sea /NZ/Aus

Deep lows, one dropping to maybe 951 by Tuesday local, way south in the Southern Ocean, are expected to maintain a series of fronts on the Tasman Sea /NZ area. The quasi-stationary HIGH east of NZ should keep a lot of the rain away from NE of NZ.

One of those fronts may turn into a low in mid-Tasman that may visit NW NZ by Sunday 8 Dec local, 1002 hpa, followed by SW winds early next week, avoid arriving then.

 

For Noumea to Aus: Mixed bag this week, Northerly winds until Wednesday, then light wind then southeast winds from Sunday 8 Dec. OK to go, but may need waypoints,

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If you would like more detail for your voyage, then check metbob.com to see what I offer.

Or Facebook at /www.facebook.com/metbobnz/

Weathergram with graphics is at metbob.wordpress.com (subscribe/unsubscribe at bottom).

Weathergram archive (with translator) is at weathergram.blogspot.co.nz.

Contact is bob@metbob.com or txt 6427 7762212

>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> 

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