Bob Blog 28 June

Bob Blog 28 June

Compiled Sun 28 June 2020

Bob McDavitt’s ideas for sailing around the South Pacific.

Disclaimer: Weather is a mix of pattern and chaos; these ideas are from the patterned world.

 

From noonsite.com:

dated  21 June, 2020,from  Fiji : **OPEN**

Maritime borders in Fiji are now open for foreign flagged vessels and superyachts.

 

There are strict conditions to allow entry.

See Government Guidelines for Entry https://www.mcttt.gov.fj/doc_uploads/Fijian%20COVID%20Safe%20Economic%20Recovery%20Framework.pdf

 

It has been confirmed by the Fiji Government that if a covid test prior to departure for Fiji is not possible, then quarantine on arrival and a test in Fiji may be an option. Entries will be approved on a case-by-case basis. Individual yachts will need to make and declare their interest directly with their agent and Fijian Border Agencies, at least five working days prior to departure, at which stage an assessment will be made.

If quarantine is required on arrival in Fiji, this can be done on board the yacht but will be strictly monitored.

 

The only port of entry will be Port Denarau Marina.

 

Important: While the announcement has been made, there is still much work to be done to implement these new procedures. Fijian authorities are doing trials on new arrival protocols which are being tested on superyachts initially with the hope they will be extended to cruising yachts in due course.

 

Cruisers are urged to be patient, and to allow the Ministry of Health and Port Denarau Marina to get the procedure in place before making an application to go to Fiji.

 

There is also a rumour that Tonga may open on 1 July— not sure yet.

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The Tropics

The latest cyclone activity report is at tropic.ssec.wisc.edu and Tropical Cyclone Potential is from www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/TCFP/index.html

The remnants of BORIS are Southeast of Hawaii, travelling west-southwest.

There are also some potential areas for formation along west coast of central America.

 

WEATHER ZONES

The SPCZ is active around Solomon Island, over northern Vanuatu, and Tuvalu/Tokelau then stretches south east to south east of Niue.

A tropical trough should cross Tonga on Monday and then go southeast.

 

HIGH 1024 is expected to form in western Tasman Sea on Monday and travel along 30S reaching northern NZ on Thursday/Friday then off to east of NZ.

 

LOW travelling east over Northern North island on Monday, then going southeast and deepening to 990 hPa at 45S near Chatham Islands on Wednesday.

 

Next Low should be traveling east across south Tasman sea, south of Tasmania on Thursday and then south of NZ by Saturday, with a westerly flow over NZ.

 

From Panama: Squally due to ITCZ, but some rare NW winds are likely around Panama this week, Will need to go south at first and maybe then WNW to handle SW winds SW winds from 6N to 4N/80 to 95W. 2 or 3 tropical features likely to form off west of central America in a week or so, but not bother voyage to Marquesas .

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If you would like more detail for your voyage, then check metbob.com to see what I offer.

Or Facebook at /www.facebook.com/metbobnz/

Weathergram with graphics is at metbob.wordpress.com (subscribe/unsubscribe at bottom).

Weathergram archive (with translator) is at weathergram.blogspot.co.nz.

Contact is bob@metbob.com or txt 6427 7762212

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Bob Blog 21 June

Bob Blog 21 June 2020

Compiled Sun 21 June 2020

 

Bob McDavitt’s ideas for sailing around the South Pacific.

Disclaimer: Weather is a mix of pattern and chaos; these ideas are from the patterned world.

 

Here comes winter

I know that most of the world deem 1 June as start of winter-, for convenience, timing it as the calendar months of winter being June, July, August.

 

However, I prefer to use one of the four “corners” of the year as per our view of the sun. These are the spring and summer equinoxes and the winter and summer solstices. The winter solstice usually falls around June 21 (depending on when was the last leap year).

 

So, Winter “starts”, using the solstice, on 21 June at 9:43am in Auckland.

 

The southern hemisphere will be having its shortest “day” lasting, in Auckland, just 9 hours 38 minutes, but it’ll take a week before this duration extends by even a minute, and yet in a few months (spring start day length) will extend to 12 hours.

 

A good measure of our view of the sun is the solar declination, which is known by marine navigators.

Note that for the solstice, the declination is 23.45 degrees to the north of the equator.

So the angle of the overhead sun in Auckland is 90 degrees minus Auckland’s latitude, minus the sun’s declination that’s 90-37-23.45= ~29 degrees (compared with ~77 degrees at summer solstice).

 

The coldest days of the average year in Auckland is with a day-time high of around 14C in late July to early August. Hence, the saying “When the days (start to) get longer, the cold gets stronger”.

 

The Tropics

The latest cyclone activity report is at tropic.ssec.wisc.edu and Tropical Cyclone Potential is from www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/TCFP/index.html

 

Currently it is quiet

There are a few small low to moderate patches of potential development but these are not really expected to come to much. But be aware.

 

WEATHER ZONES

The SPCZ is active from PNG/Solomon Islands, Vanuatu, Fiji, Samoa, to French Polynesia, with a convergence zone that stretches off to SE of SPCZ.

A tropical trough is expected to cross New Caledonia on Tuesday, and brush past Fiji and Tonga on Wed /Thurs this week.

 

Subtropical ridge (STR)

Brief ridge expected to cross Tasman Sea on Monday and NZ on Mon/Tues, as a HIGH 1028 to 1026 hPa slips off to east of South Island.

Next High 1024 to 1028 hp expected to enter South Tasman near 50S on Tues, and travel across south NZ by Thurs. There is likely to be a squash zone of enhanced easterly winds between High and Low over the North Island on Thurs/Friday. Take care.

 

Tasman Sea /NZ/Aus

Low over Northland tonight moving away to east on Monday.

LOW 1006 hPa over Tasmania on Monday expected to travel NE across Tasman and reach northern NZ by Thurs/Friday (along with a squash zone).

 

From Panama: Not good this week, SW winds or light winds in Panama, and the ITCZ is visiting at times. It is most active/squally 10N to 6N.

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If you would like more detail for your voyage, then check metbob.com to see what I offer.

Or Facebook at /www.facebook.com/metbobnz/

Weathergram with graphics is at metbob.wordpress.com (subscribe/unsubscribe at bottom).

Weathergram archive (with translator) is at weathergram.blogspot.co.nz.

Contact is bob@metbob.com or txt 6427 7762212

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bob blog 14 june

Bob Blog 14 June

Compiled Sun 14  June 2020

Bob McDavitt’s ideas for sailing around the South Pacific.

Disclaimer: Weather is a mix of pattern and chaos; these ideas are from the patterned world.

 

REVIEW OF THE LAST MONTH (May 2020)

Sea Surface temperature anomalies as at start of May can be seen at //www.weatherzone.com.au/climate/indicator_sst.jsp?lt=global&lc=global&c=ssta

Looking at the SST during the past few months we see a continuing warm pool in the Indian Ocean/Tasman Sea/Fiji. This means there may be a NEGATIVE Indian Ocean Dipole is possible later this year over Australia with above-average winter/spring rainfall over parts of Southern Australia, perhaps—only 4 out of 6 models say a sort of yes.

According to BoM (Australia) ENSO (El Nino/southern Oscillation) is neutral but if there is further cooling along the eastern equatorial Pacific in the next few weeks the a La Nina watch may be triggered. SAM (Southern Annular Mode) is currently positive for a few weeks., keeping southerly outbreaks away.

 

To see how the annual weather cycle and the seasons are working out, we can check the average isobar maps for past 30 days and their anomaly from www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/map/images/fnl/slp_30b.fnl.html

Last month There was a belt of low pressure near 40-50S from south of South Africa to the east of NZ. It now covers much of the southern Ocean. The subtropical ridge is looking strong and lingering around 35-4=50 South, somewhat south of normal.

Zooming into the NZ area, and comparing monthly anomalies from last month with now, shows that the subtropical ridge STR has strengthened. The 1010 and 1015 lines have shifted south, a new1020 isobar has appeared , letting in only small doses of rain on to the North Island.

 

The Tropics

The latest cyclone activity report is at tropic.ssec.wisc.edu and Tropical Cyclone Potential is from www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/TCFP/index.html

Tropical storm NURI is affecting the China Sea

There are a few small low to moderate patches of potential development but these are not really expected to come to much. But be aware.

 

WEATHER ZONES

SPCZ=South Pacific Convergence zone.

The SPCZ is active around Solomon Island, over northern Vanuatu, and Tuvalu/Tokelau the stretched east loosely across French Polynesia.

 

Subtropical ridge (STR)

HIGH 1034 to 1032 is expected east of North Island on Monday and to travel off to ESE rest of week.

Next High 1036 Wed in SW Tasman Sea on Wed to travel NE and fade in central Tasma Sea 1026 by Saturday.

Next High 1038 hPa should appear in south Tasman Sea by end of week.

 

Tasman Sea /NZ/Aus

Between the first and second High a Trough should reach South Island on Monday Troughs over Southern South Island on Monday/Tuesday and North island on Wednesday followed by a southerly flow over NZ on Thursday and a low deepening east of the North Island on Friday.

 

From Panama: Not good this week, SW winds or light winds in Panama, and the ITCZ is visiting at times. It is most active/squally to 5N.

 

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If you would like more detail for your voyage, then check metbob.com to see what I offer.

Or Facebook at /www.facebook.com/metbobnz/

Weathergram with graphics is at metbob.wordpress.com (subscribe/unsubscribe at bottom).

Weathergram archive (with translator) is at weathergram.blogspot.co.nz.

Contact is bob@metbob.com or txt 6427 7762212

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Bob Blob 7 June

WEATHERGRAM

YOTREPS

Compiled Sun 7 June 2020

Bob McDavitt’s ideas for sailing around the South Pacific.

Disclaimer: Weather is a mix of pattern and chaos; these ideas are from the patterned world.

+++++++++++++++

I usually on the first Sunday of each month give you a review of the previous month, but ran out of time today travelling, so will do it next week.

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The Tropics

The latest cyclone activity report is at tropic.ssec.wisc.edu and Tropical Cyclone Potential is from www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/TCFP/index.html

Tropical storm CRISTOBAL is affecting USA next few days.

Its reminding us of the season.

There are a few small low to moderate patches of potential development but these are not really expected to come to much

 

WEATHER ZONES

SPCZ=South Pacific Convergence zone.

The SPCZ is active around Solomon Island, over northern Vanuatu, and Fiji, with a passing trough further southeast turning into a low from Thursday.

 

Subtropical ridge (STR)

HIGH 1032 to 1028 expected to enter central Tasman Sea from Australia on Tuesday and travel along 37S and fade near northern NZ from Friday.

Next HIGH 1028hPa to 1035hPa along 45S is expected from Southern Ocean Thursday moving onto central South Island on Saturday then off to the east next week.

 

Tasman Sea /NZ/Aus

Troughs over Southern South Island on Monday and Wednesday/Thursday, and over North Island on Friday.

 

From Panama: Not good this week, SW winds or light winds in Panama, and the ITCZ is visiting at times. It is most active/squally to 5N. I reckon that the best way to tackle these SW winds is to go SSE then west.

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If you would like more detail for your voyage, then check metbob.com to see what I offer.

Or Facebook at /www.facebook.com/metbobnz/

Weathergram with graphics is at metbob.wordpress.com (subscribe/unsubscribe at bottom).

Weathergram archive (with translator) is at weathergram.blogspot.co.nz.

Contact is bob@metbob.com or txt 6427 7762212

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