Bob McDavitt's ideas for sailing around the South Pacific.
Disclaimer: Weather is a mix of pattern and chaos; these ideas are
from the patterned world.
Compiled Sunday 31 March 2024
Just a brief blog this evening…. Have been busy getting my expenses
paid in time as the financial year crashes out mid Easter (ouch)
Congratulations to Dr Jim Salinger fir being declared (Kiwibank's)
NEW ZEALANDER OF THE YEAR 2024.
He has been advocating the need to act to mitigate climate change
since '75 , 50 years of mahi.
TROPICS
Category-2 Cyclone Gamane passed by the northern tip of Madagascar
with high winds and heavy rain before taking aim on Réunion and
Mauritius. • No features around at end of March/start of April
(nothing in that department to carry forward to the new financial
year)
The MJO pattern is now reforming in the Indian Ocea, We should have a
few quiet weeks in the South Pacific , but there may be one last
chance for an increase in tropical activity around mid-April before
the nominal end of this cyclone season.
WEATHER ZONES
The South Pacific Convergence zone is weakening and extends from
northern Coral Sea across Vanuatu and norther Fiji /Tonga towards
Suwarrow.
HIGHS and LOWS
The Low east of NZ is now moving off and pressures are rising as
autumnal HIGH H1 moves from Tasman Sea, across central NZ on Tuesday
then slowly off to the East.
There is a trough lurking off to southeast of French Polynesia near
Pitcairn. Avoid.
There is also a well-developed "mirror ITCZ" near 5S. 100-160W,
Low L! is expected to move across Tasmania on Tuesday and its
associated FRONT should cross NZ on Thursday and Friday.
HIGH H2 in Australian bight is expected to cross Tasmania on Friday
and reach southern NZ this weekend.
A Low is expected to form near Lord Howe Island on Saturday/Sunday
6/7 April. Avoid.
Please to remember the change back to standard time in Australia and
NZ on Sunday 7 April.
3am DT->2am Standard time, so by repeating an hour we have a 25hour
day.
Panama to Marquesas:
Best day this week for a sailing departure from Panama is Monday 1
April, and then it may be good again for sailing on Wednesday 10
April.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
If you would like more details about your voyage, then check
metbob.com to see what I offer.
Or Facebook at /www.facebook.com/metbobnz/
Weathergram with graphics is at metbob.wordpress.com
(subscribe/unsubscribe at bottom).
Weathergram archive (with translator) is at
weathergram.blogspot.co.nz.
Contact is bob@metbob.com or text 64277762212.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
31 March 2024
24 March 2024
Bobgram
Bob McDavitt's ideas for sailing around the South Pacific.
Disclaimer: Weather is a mix of pattern and chaos; these ideas are
from the patterned world.
Compiled Sunday 24 March 2024
Saturday 23 March 2024 was World Meteorological Day.
The theme this year is AT THE FRONTLINE OF CLIMATE CHANGE
They have just completed a report of the state of the climate at the
end of 2023
This can be seen at youtu.be/ES7eKWRRJ0o
The report starts with the alarming record breaking of a warming
planet but ends with the hope of rapidly increasing sustainable energy
sources, reducing emissions, and increasing investment in climate
adaptation.
TROPICS
Late reports from Mozambique say Tropical Storm Filipo killed one
person and injured seven others when it passed through the south of
the country during the previous week.
. Category-2 Cyclone Megan swamped a remote part of far northern
Australia, along the coast of the Gulf of Carpentaria.
. Tropical Storm Neville strengthened to hurricane force over the
eastern Indian Ocean.
The MJO pattern moved over the South Pacific last week and is still
around this week, but nothing much has been triggered. We can now
expect a few quiet weeks in the tropical South Pacific, and there is
still time for another MJO cycle in mid-April before ethe normal end
of this cyclone season.
WEATHER ZONES
The South Pacific Convergence zone is starting to weaken and narrow
and stretches from Coral Sea to north of Vanuatu and across Fiji and
southern Tonga. Tropical Low L1 should travel off to the southeast and
take with it much of the SPCZ energy.
There is another convergence zone this week between Tuvalu and
Tokelau/Suwarrow, and a "mirror ITCZ" along around 3 to 7S between
Galapagos and Marquesas.
HIGHS and LOWS
HIGH H1 is expected to travel eastwards along around 40S and well
south of Tahiti.
LOW L2 is expected to travel quickly eastwards across south Tasman Sea
along 50S next few days and bring strong west to SW winds over central
and southern NZ mid-week.
This is expected to quickly be followed by L3 travelling NE from
Southern Ocean along east-of -NZ on Good Friday and then deepening
east of the NI over the Easter weekend, moving off early next week.
Avoid.
Panama to Marquesas:
The northerly winds in Panama gulf are expected to return from around
Sat 30 March for a few days. try and arrange departure then. .
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
If you would like more details about your voyage, then check
metbob.com to see what I offer.
Or Facebook at /www.facebook.com/metbobnz/
Weathergram with graphics is at metbob.wordpress.com
(subscribe/unsubscribe at bottom).
Weathergram archive (with translator) is at
weathergram.blogspot.co.nz.
Contact is bob@metbob.com or text 64277762212.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
Disclaimer: Weather is a mix of pattern and chaos; these ideas are
from the patterned world.
Compiled Sunday 24 March 2024
Saturday 23 March 2024 was World Meteorological Day.
The theme this year is AT THE FRONTLINE OF CLIMATE CHANGE
They have just completed a report of the state of the climate at the
end of 2023
This can be seen at youtu.be/ES7eKWRRJ0o
The report starts with the alarming record breaking of a warming
planet but ends with the hope of rapidly increasing sustainable energy
sources, reducing emissions, and increasing investment in climate
adaptation.
TROPICS
Late reports from Mozambique say Tropical Storm Filipo killed one
person and injured seven others when it passed through the south of
the country during the previous week.
. Category-2 Cyclone Megan swamped a remote part of far northern
Australia, along the coast of the Gulf of Carpentaria.
. Tropical Storm Neville strengthened to hurricane force over the
eastern Indian Ocean.
The MJO pattern moved over the South Pacific last week and is still
around this week, but nothing much has been triggered. We can now
expect a few quiet weeks in the tropical South Pacific, and there is
still time for another MJO cycle in mid-April before ethe normal end
of this cyclone season.
WEATHER ZONES
The South Pacific Convergence zone is starting to weaken and narrow
and stretches from Coral Sea to north of Vanuatu and across Fiji and
southern Tonga. Tropical Low L1 should travel off to the southeast and
take with it much of the SPCZ energy.
There is another convergence zone this week between Tuvalu and
Tokelau/Suwarrow, and a "mirror ITCZ" along around 3 to 7S between
Galapagos and Marquesas.
HIGHS and LOWS
HIGH H1 is expected to travel eastwards along around 40S and well
south of Tahiti.
LOW L2 is expected to travel quickly eastwards across south Tasman Sea
along 50S next few days and bring strong west to SW winds over central
and southern NZ mid-week.
This is expected to quickly be followed by L3 travelling NE from
Southern Ocean along east-of -NZ on Good Friday and then deepening
east of the NI over the Easter weekend, moving off early next week.
Avoid.
Panama to Marquesas:
The northerly winds in Panama gulf are expected to return from around
Sat 30 March for a few days. try and arrange departure then. .
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
If you would like more details about your voyage, then check
metbob.com to see what I offer.
Or Facebook at /www.facebook.com/metbobnz/
Weathergram with graphics is at metbob.wordpress.com
(subscribe/unsubscribe at bottom).
Weathergram archive (with translator) is at
weathergram.blogspot.co.nz.
Contact is bob@metbob.com or text 64277762212.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
19 March 2024
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17 March 2024
Bob blog 17 March
Bob McDavitt's ideas for sailing around the South Pacific.
Disclaimer: Weather is a mix of pattern and chaos; these ideas are
from the patterned world.
Compiled Sunday 17 March 2024
EL NINO fading to NEUTRAL,
In mid-March the equatorial current was going westwards as if on
steroids.
As the surface: warm water is being pushed physically by an increasing
wind from the east Pacific along the equator. This happens across the
entire equatorial Pacific and piles up over the western Pacific.
There, to flatten out this buildup, water beneath it at around 50 to
150m is pushed outwards at over 2kt, creating an east-going current
called the Pacific Equatorial Undercurrent or EUC which starts in
Indonesia.
When this current hits the barrier offered by the Galapagos, most of
it diverts around this obstacle, but some of it diverts upwards to
replace the water that has been taken west-wards. This UPWELLING,
being cooler and full of nutrients, provides the rich animal and bird
life of the Galapagos with a feast of food.
The behaviour of the EUC is tied up with the El Nino and La Nina
patterns, but because it is hard to observe, little is known what
changes its 'mood".
We do know a lot now about how the tropics influence New Zealand
weather. Ove the recent summer ELNINO was in the driving seat,
producing more westerly winds than normal over NZ - filling the hydro
lakes with reasonable rain, but producing dry conditions east of the
Alps, and now a drought in Marlborough. During autumn EL NINO will be
replaced by what we call "NEUTRAL" conditions. The weather will swing
from one pattern to another, allowing variety as each pattern gets to
"play" for a short time. I call this "Weather Jazz"
(youtube.com/watch?v=dlee09qmnv4)
TUVALU is slowly sinking
The spring tide in February is always higher than other months because
of the season. This year, with the warmer than normal seas in the
ocean, the February spring tide brought flooding to Funafuti's main
road. The newly elected Government have a hard time on their hands
with just a few decades left to shift the whole population somewhere
else.
TROPICS
Tropical Storm Filipo brought much needed rainfall to southern
Mozambique after forming over the Mozambique Channel. Cyclone Meagan,
named yesterday, is heading west almost towards Darwin. Tropical
depression Eighteen is lurking off NW Australia and also travelling
westwards.
The MJO pattern is now active over Northern Australia and moving into
the Pacific, increasing the risk of cyclone formation on the Coral sea
over the coming week.
WEATHER ZONES
The South Pacific Convergence zone is very active this week across the
Coral Sea and Vanuatu to Fiji and then east-southeastwards to the
Austral Islands.
Tropical Low L1 now west of Vanuatu is expected to slowly travel SE
over southern parts of Fiji later this weekend. Avoid.
HIGHS and LOWS
LOW L2 south of Niue is expected to travel slowly southeast.
Low L3 just east of Chathams tonight is expected to go northeast and
deepen in the next few days, then turn east and then southeast
following L1. Avoid.
HIGH H1 in the Tasman Sea is expected and the North Island on Friday,
followed by a northerly flow ahead of L4 which should reach mainly the
North Island on Friday.
Panama to Marquesas:
The northerly winds in Panama gulf are becoming less reliable as the
equinox approaches.
Avoid departing between 21 and 29 March.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
If you would like more details about your voyage, then check
metbob.com to see what I offer.
Or Facebook at /www.facebook.com/metbobnz/
Weathergram with graphics is at metbob.wordpress.com
(subscribe/unsubscribe at bottom).
Weathergram archive (with translator) is at
weathergram.blogspot.co.nz.
Contact is bob@metbob.com or text 64277762212.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
Disclaimer: Weather is a mix of pattern and chaos; these ideas are
from the patterned world.
Compiled Sunday 17 March 2024
EL NINO fading to NEUTRAL,
In mid-March the equatorial current was going westwards as if on
steroids.
As the surface: warm water is being pushed physically by an increasing
wind from the east Pacific along the equator. This happens across the
entire equatorial Pacific and piles up over the western Pacific.
There, to flatten out this buildup, water beneath it at around 50 to
150m is pushed outwards at over 2kt, creating an east-going current
called the Pacific Equatorial Undercurrent or EUC which starts in
Indonesia.
When this current hits the barrier offered by the Galapagos, most of
it diverts around this obstacle, but some of it diverts upwards to
replace the water that has been taken west-wards. This UPWELLING,
being cooler and full of nutrients, provides the rich animal and bird
life of the Galapagos with a feast of food.
The behaviour of the EUC is tied up with the El Nino and La Nina
patterns, but because it is hard to observe, little is known what
changes its 'mood".
We do know a lot now about how the tropics influence New Zealand
weather. Ove the recent summer ELNINO was in the driving seat,
producing more westerly winds than normal over NZ - filling the hydro
lakes with reasonable rain, but producing dry conditions east of the
Alps, and now a drought in Marlborough. During autumn EL NINO will be
replaced by what we call "NEUTRAL" conditions. The weather will swing
from one pattern to another, allowing variety as each pattern gets to
"play" for a short time. I call this "Weather Jazz"
(youtube.com/watch?v=dlee09qmnv4)
TUVALU is slowly sinking
The spring tide in February is always higher than other months because
of the season. This year, with the warmer than normal seas in the
ocean, the February spring tide brought flooding to Funafuti's main
road. The newly elected Government have a hard time on their hands
with just a few decades left to shift the whole population somewhere
else.
TROPICS
Tropical Storm Filipo brought much needed rainfall to southern
Mozambique after forming over the Mozambique Channel. Cyclone Meagan,
named yesterday, is heading west almost towards Darwin. Tropical
depression Eighteen is lurking off NW Australia and also travelling
westwards.
The MJO pattern is now active over Northern Australia and moving into
the Pacific, increasing the risk of cyclone formation on the Coral sea
over the coming week.
WEATHER ZONES
The South Pacific Convergence zone is very active this week across the
Coral Sea and Vanuatu to Fiji and then east-southeastwards to the
Austral Islands.
Tropical Low L1 now west of Vanuatu is expected to slowly travel SE
over southern parts of Fiji later this weekend. Avoid.
HIGHS and LOWS
LOW L2 south of Niue is expected to travel slowly southeast.
Low L3 just east of Chathams tonight is expected to go northeast and
deepen in the next few days, then turn east and then southeast
following L1. Avoid.
HIGH H1 in the Tasman Sea is expected and the North Island on Friday,
followed by a northerly flow ahead of L4 which should reach mainly the
North Island on Friday.
Panama to Marquesas:
The northerly winds in Panama gulf are becoming less reliable as the
equinox approaches.
Avoid departing between 21 and 29 March.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
If you would like more details about your voyage, then check
metbob.com to see what I offer.
Or Facebook at /www.facebook.com/metbobnz/
Weathergram with graphics is at metbob.wordpress.com
(subscribe/unsubscribe at bottom).
Weathergram archive (with translator) is at
weathergram.blogspot.co.nz.
Contact is bob@metbob.com or text 64277762212.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
10 March 2024
Bob blog 10 March
Bob McDavitt's ideas for sailing around the South Pacific.
Disclaimer: Weather is a mix of pattern and chaos; these ideas are
from the patterned world.
Compiled Sunday 10 March 2024
Brace for a few weeks of extra convective energy (bubbly blue) in the
South Pacific as the MJO moves across the Pacific.
See www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/forca.shtml
ALSO: Between Galapagos and Marquesas, that "mirror convergence
zones"" which I mentioned before have now formed :
TROPICS
There are no named storms tonight. But there is potential for cyclonic
formation in the zone between northern Australia and Fiji during the
coming eek.
WEATHER ZONES
The South Pacific Convergence zone is very active this week across the
Coral Sea and Vanuatu to Fiji and then east-south-eastwards to the
Austral Islands.
Tropical Low L3 now over Vanuatu is expected to travel southeast
across Fiji on Tuesday and Tonga on Wed/Thursday. Avoid.
Another Low L4 may form near New Caledonia from Wednesday. Avoid.
HIGHS and LOWS
HIGH H1 is lingering in the north Tasman Sea
Low L1, well to the east of NZ, is expected to linger south of Tahiti
this week.
Low L2 and associated trough is expected to cross the southern Tasman
Sea this week and then NZ on Friday. Avoid.
Panama to Marquesas:
The northerly winds in Panama gulf are expected to extend as far as
5North this week.
Monday or Tuesday departures are looking best of the week.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
If you would like more details about your voyage, then check
metbob.com to see what I offer.
Or Facebook at /www.facebook.com/metbobnz/
Weathergram with graphics is at metbob.wordpress.com
(subscribe/unsubscribe at bottom).
Weathergram archive (with translator) is at
weathergram.blogspot.co.nz.
Contact is bob@metbob.com or text 64277762212.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
Disclaimer: Weather is a mix of pattern and chaos; these ideas are
from the patterned world.
Compiled Sunday 10 March 2024
Brace for a few weeks of extra convective energy (bubbly blue) in the
South Pacific as the MJO moves across the Pacific.
See www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/forca.shtml
ALSO: Between Galapagos and Marquesas, that "mirror convergence
zones"" which I mentioned before have now formed :
TROPICS
There are no named storms tonight. But there is potential for cyclonic
formation in the zone between northern Australia and Fiji during the
coming eek.
WEATHER ZONES
The South Pacific Convergence zone is very active this week across the
Coral Sea and Vanuatu to Fiji and then east-south-eastwards to the
Austral Islands.
Tropical Low L3 now over Vanuatu is expected to travel southeast
across Fiji on Tuesday and Tonga on Wed/Thursday. Avoid.
Another Low L4 may form near New Caledonia from Wednesday. Avoid.
HIGHS and LOWS
HIGH H1 is lingering in the north Tasman Sea
Low L1, well to the east of NZ, is expected to linger south of Tahiti
this week.
Low L2 and associated trough is expected to cross the southern Tasman
Sea this week and then NZ on Friday. Avoid.
Panama to Marquesas:
The northerly winds in Panama gulf are expected to extend as far as
5North this week.
Monday or Tuesday departures are looking best of the week.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
If you would like more details about your voyage, then check
metbob.com to see what I offer.
Or Facebook at /www.facebook.com/metbobnz/
Weathergram with graphics is at metbob.wordpress.com
(subscribe/unsubscribe at bottom).
Weathergram archive (with translator) is at
weathergram.blogspot.co.nz.
Contact is bob@metbob.com or text 64277762212.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
03 March 2024
Bob Blog 3 March
Bob McDavitt's ideas for sailing around the South Pacific.
Disclaimer: Weather is a mix of pattern and chaos; these ideas are
from the patterned world.
Compiled Sunday 3 March 2024
A review of last month's weather
Here is a link to a YouTube clip giving an animated loop of the
isobars and streamlines in the South Pacific for the last month at
youtu.be/ufI3KuZYp3w
During February we had an MJO passage for the first few weeks,
activating the South Pacific Convergence Zone (SPCZ) producing 4
tropical depressions of interest and two cyclones NAT and OSAI. These
systems where so close together that they kept feeding off each other
and none was allowed to blossom beyond a brief storm.
An active SPCZ meant an active Hadley cell and thus an intense
subtropical ridge which helped to keep tropical systems away from NZ
latitude. However, it was an El Nino month and that allowed several
fronts from the Southern Ocean to move onto NZ and bring bursts of
large swells into the Tasman Sea as far north as New Caledonia.
The SST pattern has slightly relaxed since last month.
Average isobars for past month : During February the subtropical
ridges in both hemispheres were well marked.
The anomaly pattern for February shows that the trough area that was
over NZ in January has shifted to stretch from the SPCZ to the eastern
part of the South Pacific. The subtropical ridge has increased by over
5hPa since January.
TROPICS
There are no named storms tonight. During the past week LINCOLN
brought generous amounts of rain to the parched lands over NW
Australia
WEATHER ZONES
The South Pacific Convergence zone is rebuilding in the Coral Sea.
A passing front is expected to cross New Caledonia on Monday. Another
may linger to southeast of Tahiti.
HIGHS and LOWS
HIGH H1 is lingering well to south of Tahiti .
Low L1 is tonight a deep low 960hPa near 55S and expected to travel
quickly northeast to be east of Chatham Island by midweek. Its
associated thundery fronts should cross NZ on Monday, and then a burst
of large SW swells in the Tasman Sea mainly on Tuesday. Avoid.
HIGH H2 is expected to move into the Tasman se by Wednesday then stop
and fade.
Another low L2 and associated fronts are expected to travel northeast
onto NZ area on Thursday and Friday.
Panama to Marquesas:
The northerly winds in Panama gulf are expected to extend as far as
5North this week.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
If you would like more details about your voyage, then check
metbob.com to see what I offer.
Or Facebook at /www.facebook.com/metbobnz/
Weathergram with graphics is at metbob.wordpress.com
(subscribe/unsubscribe at bottom).
Weathergram archive (with translator) is at
weathergram.blogspot.co.nz.
Contact is bob@metbob.com or text 64277762212.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
Disclaimer: Weather is a mix of pattern and chaos; these ideas are
from the patterned world.
Compiled Sunday 3 March 2024
A review of last month's weather
Here is a link to a YouTube clip giving an animated loop of the
isobars and streamlines in the South Pacific for the last month at
youtu.be/ufI3KuZYp3w
During February we had an MJO passage for the first few weeks,
activating the South Pacific Convergence Zone (SPCZ) producing 4
tropical depressions of interest and two cyclones NAT and OSAI. These
systems where so close together that they kept feeding off each other
and none was allowed to blossom beyond a brief storm.
An active SPCZ meant an active Hadley cell and thus an intense
subtropical ridge which helped to keep tropical systems away from NZ
latitude. However, it was an El Nino month and that allowed several
fronts from the Southern Ocean to move onto NZ and bring bursts of
large swells into the Tasman Sea as far north as New Caledonia.
The SST pattern has slightly relaxed since last month.
Average isobars for past month : During February the subtropical
ridges in both hemispheres were well marked.
The anomaly pattern for February shows that the trough area that was
over NZ in January has shifted to stretch from the SPCZ to the eastern
part of the South Pacific. The subtropical ridge has increased by over
5hPa since January.
TROPICS
There are no named storms tonight. During the past week LINCOLN
brought generous amounts of rain to the parched lands over NW
Australia
WEATHER ZONES
The South Pacific Convergence zone is rebuilding in the Coral Sea.
A passing front is expected to cross New Caledonia on Monday. Another
may linger to southeast of Tahiti.
HIGHS and LOWS
HIGH H1 is lingering well to south of Tahiti .
Low L1 is tonight a deep low 960hPa near 55S and expected to travel
quickly northeast to be east of Chatham Island by midweek. Its
associated thundery fronts should cross NZ on Monday, and then a burst
of large SW swells in the Tasman Sea mainly on Tuesday. Avoid.
HIGH H2 is expected to move into the Tasman se by Wednesday then stop
and fade.
Another low L2 and associated fronts are expected to travel northeast
onto NZ area on Thursday and Friday.
Panama to Marquesas:
The northerly winds in Panama gulf are expected to extend as far as
5North this week.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
If you would like more details about your voyage, then check
metbob.com to see what I offer.
Or Facebook at /www.facebook.com/metbobnz/
Weathergram with graphics is at metbob.wordpress.com
(subscribe/unsubscribe at bottom).
Weathergram archive (with translator) is at
weathergram.blogspot.co.nz.
Contact is bob@metbob.com or text 64277762212.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
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