Translator

Bob McDavitt's ideas for sailing weather around the South pacific

25 December 2016

Bob Blog 25 Dec 2016

WEATHERGRAM
YOTREPS
Compiled Sun 25 December 2016
Bob McDavitt's ideas for sailing around the South Pacific.
Disclaimer: Weather is a mix of pattern and chaos; these ideas are from the
patterned world.

Here's to a peaceful and joyful Christmas and end of the year to you all.
However, there is some activity in the South Pacific and around Australia this
week so there are a few potential tropical depressions that may be worth
avoiding.
There are five of them tonight and they can be seen on the windyty.com website.

The Tropics
TC NOCK TEN is moving west across the Philippines on Boxing day as a severe
tropical cyclone, and may end up near Vietnam coast at turn of the year. It's
track can be seen at ruc.noaa.gov/tracks/

Of all those Lows in the Australia/South Pacific area, the one that at present
has the most grunt is FORMER TC Yvette, now a monsoonal depression, bringing its
rain to South Australia. It's track may be seen at
www.tropicaltidbits.com/storminfo/02S_gefs_latest.png

Rain maps at trmm.gsfc.nasa.gov/trmm_rain/Events/big_global_accumlation.gif show
that activity is on the decrease around Fiji, and on the increase over
Philippines, Australia, and Southern Cooks. Also in the Indian Ocean and along
the Intertropical Convergence Zone.

WEATHER ZONES
SPCZ=South Pacific Convergence zone.
SPCZ is drifting south this wee,k and leaving a few smaller convergece zones
further north, Expect a tropcial Low over Southern cooks to peal around
Wednesday UTC, and another near Vanuatu by New year's weekend. Lows may come
and go around Australia all week.
Tropical accumulated rainfall for next week may be seen at windyty.com

Subtropical ridge (STR)
The HIGH in the Tasman Sea tonight is expected to remain slow-moving and drift
north to 30S and linger there until early next week
Next High is weaker and should appear over and east of Tasmania early in the
New Year.

Tasman Sea/NZ Area troughs.
A disturbed SW flow is likely over northern NZ this week. Next trough of
consequence should start arriving over southern NZ on wed, central NZ on Friday
and northern NZ over the New year weekend.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
Follow me on Facebook at www.facebook.com/metbobnz/
See my yotpak at boatbooks.co.nz/weather.html for terms used.
See my website www.metbob.com for information on tailor-made voyage forecasts-
Feedback to bob@metbob.com.
Tell anyone you like that to subscribe they should email me.
Weathergram text only (and translator) is at weathergram.blogspot.co.nz.
Weathergram with graphics is at metbob.wordpress.com,
Click FOLLOW at bottom right to subscribe.
To unsubscribe send a reply email saying LEAVE.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>

18 December 2016

Bob blog 18 Sec 2016

WEATHERGRAM
YOTREPS
Compiled 18 December 2016

Bob McDavitt's ideas for sailing around the South Pacific.
Disclaimer: Weather is a mix of pattern and chaos; these ideas are from the
patterned world.

There is a burst of near equatorial west to NW winds stretching from Indian
Ocean to the Western South Pacific. The associated monsoonal trough is expected
to drift close to North Australia and may deepen and contribute to tropical low
development.
The MJO index is currently weak and not really contributing much to this, but
when we get near equatorial west to NW winds in mid-December, something usually
develops within a week or so.

The Tropics
TC VARDAH was nearing its peak this time last week as it approached Chennai.
During the past week it went west completely across India and the Arabian Sea
and is now approaching the Somalia area as a depression.

TD04F/99P formed last week to NW of Fiji and has been a slow-moving tropical
depression, dropping its heavy rains over the Fiji area all week and, so far,
not quite making the required wind flow to be a Category 1 tropical cyclone.

This is a good time to show the various web sites that provide information about
the thinking of the monitoring meteorologists as you look at the satellite
imagery:

Fiji Met Service have the primary role for South Pacific cyclones east of 160
East and they issue daily a 3-day outlook at www.met.gov.fj/tc_outlook.pdf

Their latest discussion is at www.met.gov.fj/aifs_prods/20036.txt

Tonight this says:
Tropical Disturbance Summary For area Equator to 25S, 160E to 120WISSUED FROM
RSMC NADI Dec 172316 UTC.TROPICAL DEPRESSION 04F CENTRE [1000HPA] WAS ANALYSED
NEAR 16.5S174.9E AT 172200UTC. POSITION GOOD BASED ON HIMAWARI-8 VIS
IMAGERY.TD04F SLOW MOVING. CONVECTION DISPLACED TO SOUTHEAST OF LLCC. SYSTEM
LIES IN AN UPPERDIVERGENCE REGION AND IN A MODERATE TO HIGH SHEARED ENVIRONMENT.
GLOBAL MODELS MOVE TD04F INTIALLY TOWARDS THE WEST THEN SOUTHWARDSWITH LITTLE
INTENSIFICATION. POTENTIAL FOR THIS SYSTEM TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE
IN THENEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS IS LOW.
********************************************************************
NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ANALYSED OR FORECAST IN THEAREA.

If a feature is worthy enough, an advisory is issued at
www.met.gov.fj/aifs_prods/20032.txt
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A10 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADIDec 162013 UTC.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TD04F CENTRE 1000HPA WAS ANALYSED NEAR 15.9S174.5E AT
161800UTC. POSITION GOOD BASED ON HIMAWARI-8 IR IMAGERY.DEPRESSION SLOW MOVING.
MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS NEAR THECENTRE ESTIMATED AT ABOUT 25 KNOTS.
LLCC EXPOSED. CONVECTION DISPLACED TO SOUTHEAST OF LLCC. OUTFLOW GOODTO THE
SOUTH AND EAST BUT RESTRICTED ELSEWHERE. SST AROUND 29 DEGREE.SYSTEM LIES IN A
LOW UPPER DIVERGENCE REGION AND IN A MODERATESHEARED ENVIRONMENT. DVORAK
ANALYSIS BASED ON SHEAR PATTERN WITH LLCCABOUT LESS THAN 3/4 FROM DEEP
CONVECTION YIELDS DT=2.5, MET=2.0 ANDPT=2.0. FT BASED ON PT. THUS YIELDING,
T2.0/2.0/S0.0/24HRS. GLOBAL MODELS HAVE PICKED UP THE SYSTEM AND KEEP IT SLOW
MOVING WITHSLIGHT INTENSIFICATION. POTENTIAL FOR THIS SYSTEM TO DEVELOP INTO A
TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THENEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS IS LOW. FORECASTS :AT 12 HRS VALID
AT 170600 UTC 15.7S 174.5E SLOW MOVING WITH 25KTCLOSE TO CENTREAT 24 HRS VALID
AT 171800 UTC 15.7S 174.4E SLOW MOVING WITH 30KTCLOSE TO CENTRE. OUTLOOK: AT 36
HRS VALID AT 180600 UTC 16.1S 174.4E SLOW MOVING WITH 30KTCLOSE TO CENTREAT 48
HRS VALID AT 181800 UTC 16.9S 174.2E SLOW MOVING WITH 30KTCLOSE TO CENTRE. THIS
WILL BE THE LAST TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON TD04F. TD04FWILL CONTIUNE TO
BE MONITORED AND ADVISORY WILL BE REISSUED IF CHANCES INCREASES FOR IT TO
DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>

And a TRACK and THREAT map are produced when a cyclone is being tracked.
The track map is at www.met.gov.fj/aifs_prods/65661.html

MetService in NZ have a cyclone monitoring website at
www.metservice.com/warnings/tropical-cyclone-activity
tonight it says:
Tropical Cyclone Potential Bulletin
TROPICAL CYCLONE POTENTIAL BULLETIN ISSUED BY METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE OF NEW
ZEALAND
AT 0236 UTC 18-Dec-2016
CURRENT STATUS OF CYCLONE ACTIVITY
There are presently no tropical cyclones in the Coral Sea or South
Pacific areas.
FORECAST TO 1200 UTC 19-Dec-2016
Tropical depression TD04F, currently near 16.5S 174.9E, or 160nm
northwest of Viti Levu, is in a moderate shear envoronment,and is
expected to remain stationary or slowly move south-southeast. An
approaching shortwave trough is expected to increase the vertical
wind shear of the system, and the potential for TD04F to strengthen
into a tropical cyclone remains LOW.
A weak low northwest of Rarotonga is not expected to strengthen into
a tropical cyclone. A weak low may develop over the Solomon Sea
during the next 48 hours, but is also not expected to develop into a
TC.
OUTLOOK TO 1200 UTC 22-Dec-2016
TD04F is expected to slowly move south tracking close to Fiji while
gradually easing. Tropical cyclone development is NOT expected
elsewhere in the forecast area during the forecast period.
The next bulletin will be issued by 0500 UTC Mon 19-Dec-2016
(C) Copyright Meteorological Service of New Zealand Ltd 2016

Streamline Analysis
This streamline analysis map indicates wind flow near the earth's surface. The
areas where the arrowed streamlines coloured in teal move together (convergence)
and move away from each other (divergence) help determine the location of
features within the wind pattern, such as lows or lines of significant weather.
The map also shows surface pressure coloured in black, for areas south of the
Tropics.

This page also has an animated and colour coded IR satellite imagery to show the
convective clouds.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>

Other sites watching tropical cyclones are
www.tropicaltidbits.com/storminfo/
and ruc.noaa.gov/tracks/

Rain accumulation weekly maps from
trmm.gsfc.nasa.gov/trmm_rain/Events/big_global_accumlation.gif shows the intense
prolonged rainfall from the depression near Fiji, and, to a lesser extent, the
rack of TC VARDAH. The Intertropical convergence zone seems to show decreasing
activity.

WEATHER ZONES
SPCZ=South Pacific Convergence zone.
TD04F/99P is expected to drift slowly south to 20S by Thursday and then move off
to the SE.
There is also likely to be a tropical low travelling SW along the coast from
Darwin towards Broome (NW Australia) from Tuesday to Saturday and this may then
go south and inland over the weekend.

Subtropical ridge (STR)
The subtropical high in west Tasman sea tonight is expected to travel northeast
and cross to north of NZ by Wednesday and then to east of NZ. This High is
blocking the travels of TD04F. Its seems that TD04F now has to wait and t and
finally go south after this ridge has gone east.
Just like last week, a new HIGH is expected to squirt from Australian Bight into
South Tasman sea on Thursday and then NE across central Tasman sea and North
Island on early next week. This High should be in central Tasman Sea on
Christmas day, so that the most likely option for NZ Christmas/Boxing day
weather is a SW flow, and an inland trough= some inland afternoon showers + for
the Auckland area, in a word, EASING. (but the SW winds may pick up again on the
27th in the next passing front).

Tasman Sea/NZ Area troughs.
A Front and SW flow is moving off the North Island on Monday.
Another front is expected on Thursday and Friday, followed by up to strong SW
winds on Saturday.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>

Follow me on Facebook at www.facebook.com/metbobnz/
See my yotpak at boatbooks.co.nz/weather.html for terms used.
See my website www.metbob.com for information on tailor-made voyage forecasts-
Feedback to bob@metbob.com.
Tell anyone you like that to subscribe they should email me.
Weathergram text only (and translator) is at weathergram.blogspot.co.nz.
Weathergram with graphics is at metbob.wordpress.com, Click FOLLOW at bottom
right to subscribe.
To unsubscribe send a reply email saying LEAVE.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>

14 December 2016

TD04F is deepening ....

Fiji Met are saying there is a moderate chance that the Low to NW of Fiji will earn a name as a tropical cyclone by Saturday:

See http://www.met.gov.fj/aifs_prods/20036.txt

Tropical Disturbance Summary For area Equator to 25S, 160E to 120W
ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Dec 140848 UTC.
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 04F [‑‑1004HPA] ANALYSED NEAR 14.5S 175.5E AT
140600UTC SLOW MOVING. POSITION POOR BASED ON HIMAWARI IR IMAGERY AND
PERIPHERAL SURFACE OBSERVATION. SST AROUND 30 DEGRESS CELCIUS.
CONVECTION PERSISTENT IN THE PAST 24 HOURS. SYSTEM LIES UNDER A UPPER
DIFFLUENT REGION IN A LOW SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. CYCLONIC CIRCULATION
EXTENDS OVER TO 700HPA.
GLOBAL MODELS HAVE PICKED UP THE SYSTEM WITH SOUTHEAST MOVEMENT AND
GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION.
THE POTENTIAL FOR THIS SYSTEM TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN
THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS IS MODERATE.
NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ANALYSED OR FORECAST IN THE
AREA.

Or from http://www.met.gov.fj/aifs_prods/20032.txt

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A2 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Dec 150807 UTC.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TD04F CENTRE 1002HPA WAS ANALYSED NEAR 14.2S
174.8E AT 141800UTC. POSITION POOR BASED ON HIMAWARI-8 IR IMAGERY AND
PERIPHERAL SURFACE REPORTS. DEPRESSION SLOW MOVING. MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE
AVERAGE WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ESTIMATED AT ABOUT 25 KNOTS.


DEEP CONVECTION REMAINS PERSISTENT. ORGANISATION HAS ALSO IMPROVED
PAST 24 HOURS. OUTFLOW GOOD TO SOUTH DUE TO SUBTROPICAL JET TO SOUTH
OF SYSTEM. SST AROUND 29 DEGREE. SYSTEM LIES UNDER A MODERATE UPPER
DIFFLUENT REGION IN A LOW SHEAR ENVIRONMENT. DVORAK ANALYSIS BASED
0.3 WRAP YIELDS DT=1.5, MET AND PT AGREE. FT BASED ON DT. THUS
YIELDING, T1.5/1.5/D0.5/24HRS.

GLOBAL MODELS HAVE PICKED UP THE SYSTEM AND SLOWLY MOVE IT SOUTHWARDS
WITH GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION.

FORECASTS :
AT 12 HRS VALID AT 150600 UTC 14.5S 174.5E MOV SW AT 02KT WITH 25KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 24 HRS VALID AT 151800 UTC 15.1S 175.0E MOV SE AT 04KT WITH 30KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE.

OUTLOOK:
AT 36 HRS VALID AT 160600 UTC 15.8S 175.5E MOV SE AT 04KT WITH 35KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 48 HRS VALID AT 161800 UTC 16.5S 175.9E MOV SSE AT 04KT WITH 40KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE.

THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON TD04F WILL BE ISSUED AROUND
150200UTC.

Or see the map at http://www.met.gov.fj/aifs_prods/65661.html
bob@metbob.com

11 December 2016

Bob Blog 11 Dec 2016

WEATHERGRAM
YOTREPS
Compiled 11 December 2016
Bob McDavitt's ideas for sailing around the South Pacific.
Disclaimer: Weather is a mix of pattern and chaos; these ideas are from the
patterned world.

Any visitors to New Zealand who are thinking of doing some sailing around the
Hauraki Gulf this summer: please note that I am President of CANANZ, a group of
yachties in AUCKLAND who are interested in cruising and navigation. We are also
interested in helping visiting cruising yachts with a little hospitality, and
willing to answer questions about Auckland and the Hauraki Gulf. See our
webpage at www.cananz.org.nz for more details.

MARLBOROUGH SOUNDS
Some visitors will at present be considering whether to visit Marlborough
Sounds, and if so, when may be the best time to visit?

Some are saying that there may be a weak La Nina at least for the start of our
summer --- if that happens then it is likely that the Highs of the subtropical
ridge may linger over central NZ on late Jan to late Feb and so a trip to
Marlborough then is a good idea as Northland may get onshore easterly winds on
north side of these highs, or even get side-swiped by tropical lows. See the
ENSO plume at
www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/figure06.gif

Others are saying it may remain neutral this summer in which case the highs may
wander across NZ at a wide range of latitudes, and things may be much the same
over Northland as over Marlborough sounds, so may as well stay put. Bureau of
met in Australia are saying it'll be a neutral Summer, see
http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/outlook/

I'll have a "bob each way" as to what may happen, and I think Marlborough will
be at its best late Jan to late Feb.

As for getting there, it's quicker going along west coast. However, in the heat
of the day on a quiet summer's day (passing High), when the interior of the
North Island heats us, the coast gets sea breezes that are good for sailing, and
these ROTATE CLOCKWISE around the North island favouring the east coast.

SO, each argument has its good points. If you do take the west coast then may be
doing this in a northerly flow on the back end of a High, so that's the forward
side of an incoming trough, so you'll need to be aware of a possible wind change
in a few days (this applies to east coast too, but with different timing.

The Tropics
The cyclone that was mentioned last week as possibly heading for Bangladesh is
now moving west along 13N towards Chennai in India as TC VARDAH. This can be
seen at
metoc.ndbc.noaa.gov/ProductFeeds-portlet/img/jtwc/products/io0516.gif

The models are starting to agree on the possible formation of a tropical
depression to NW of Fiji by Thursday, deepening as it travels Se across Fiji on
Friday/ Saturday and then SSE to east of NZ. Till too early to be sure, and
plenty of time for things to change.
Fiji Met Service is watching and will advise via
www.met.gov.fj/aifs_prods/20036.txt
Worth watching.

Rain accumulation weekly maps at
trmm.gsfc.nasa.gov/trmm_rain/Events/big_global_accumlation.gif shows the track
of TC VARDAH. The Intertropical convergence zone seems to show decreasing
activity.

WEATHER ZONES
SPCZ=South Pacific Convergence zone.
My thoughts go out to those affected by the recent Solomon Islands (and
Indonesia) quakes. Terrible and terrifying things, these natural events, killing
more than any terrorist can ever do.

There is likely to be a burst of NW winds early this week from Solomon islands
to Tuvalu --- hard to see if this is a burst from the monsoon forming over
northern Australia, but when it forms in this area in December it usually
precedes a tropical low or cyclone. Combine that with the warmer than normal
Sea surface temperatures in the region, and a good looking High in the Tasman
Sea mid-this-week with strong SE winds on its northern side and it seems logical
that a tropical Low will deepen between Vanuatu and Fiji by mid week and
possiblly deepen as it crosses Fiji later in the week. Worth watching.
Tropical accumulated rainfall for next week can be seen at windyty.com

Subtropical ridge (STR)
The subtropical high in west Tasman sea tonight is expected to travel east and
cross to north of NZ on Thursday/Friday. There should be a squash zone of
enhanced trade winds on its northern side around 20S.

A new HIGH is expected to squirt from Australian Bight into South Tasman sea on
Thursday and then across central Tasman sea and North Island on Friday and
Saturday.

Tasman Sea/NZ Area troughs.
The strong SW flow over NZ should continue Monday and weaken on Tuesday.
Another front is expected on Wed and Thursday followed by more strong SW winds
on Friday.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
Follow me on Facebook at www.facebook.com/metbobnz/
See my yotpak at boatbooks.co.nz/weather.html for terms used.
See my website www.metbob.com for information on tailor-made voyage forecasts-
Feedback to bob@metbob.com.
Tell anyone you like that to subscribe they should email me.
Weathergram text only (and translator) is at weathergram.blogspot.co.nz.
Weathergram with graphics is at metbob.wordpress.com,
Click FOLLOW at bottom right to subscribe.
To unsubscribe send a reply email saying LEAVE.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>

04 December 2016

Bob Blog 4Dec 2016

WEATHERGRAM
YOTREPS
Compiled 4 December 2016
Bob McDavitt's ideas for sailing around the South Pacific.
Disclaimer: Weather is a mix of pattern and chaos; these ideas are from the
patterned world.

Any visitors to New Zealand who are thinking of doing some sailing around the
Hauraki Gulf this summer: please note that I am President of CANANZ, a group of
yachties in AUCKLAND who are interested in cruising and navigation. We are also
interested in helping visiting cruising yachts with a little hospitality, and
willing to answer questions about Auckland and the Hauraki Gulf. See our
webpage at www.cananz.org.nz for more details.

Last Month
The averaged isobars for November shows pattern, with the normal weather
features in the normal places: The Siberian high, the north pacific low and its
"Pacific" or "Marine" high between California and Hawaii, the Azores high and
the high that is quasi-stationary in the South pacific, which I call the "Andes
High" for it is struck west of South America by the Andes mountains. The
monsoonal trough extending in November from Indonesia to Darwin. The low/brief
rainy seasons over Kilimanjaro, and the start of the low/rainy season over the
Amazon.

Averaged isobars for November from
www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/map/images/fnl/slp_30.fnl.anim.html

By looking at the variations of these isobars from there long term November
values we can see a measure of the chaos the was operating last month, the
anomalies. That "Marine high" in the NE pacific id more intense than normal and
located closer the Hawaii, making a squash zone of stronger than normal easterly
winds just south of Hawaii. The Azores High is displaced towards UK so there is
a cold northerly flow over UK. And the pressures are much lower than normal in
the Southern Ocean, breeding stronger westerly wind onto south Australia and all
of NZ

November pressure anomalies as seen at
www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/map/images/fnl/slp_30a.fnl.anim.html

A look at November's rainfall and its anomaly shows some wet patches in the
tropics from a few depressions and cyclones. One interesting feature these maps
shows is the at there is a detectable shift AWAY from the equator of the
Intertropical Convergence zone. This is a La Nina trait, and there does seem to
be a trend towards a weak La Nina pattern in the east pacific anyway. The La
Nina causes weather patterns in the tropics and subtropics to moves away from
the equator. The implication of this in the Australia /NZ area is that the
subtropical ridge may shift southwards---no sign of this yet, but we may well
see a southward shift of the highs that travel along the subtropical ridge
during December. That's my prediction anyway.

Rainfall for November as seen at
trmm.gsfc.nasa.gov/trmm_rain/Events/thirty_day.html

The Tropics
The two depressions that were in the South pacific last week faded away OK.
No cyclones around at present and none are expected in the South Pacific this
week, but this next increase in activity is likely after 15 Dec.
Rain accumulation weekly maps shows wet patches in the tropics from passing
lows. The Intertropical convergence zone seems to show increasing activity.
Rain for the past week can be seen at
trmm.gsfc.nasa.gov/trmm_rain/Events/big_global_accumlation.gif

WEATHER ZONES
SPCZ=South Pacific Convergence zone.
A weak trough is expected to pass off to southeast of Fiji on Monday UTC and
pass across the Tonga Niue area on Tuesday /Wednesday UTC, then deepen into a
low and it travels off to the southeast. Trade winds should return to Fiji by
Tuesday UTC and to Tonga from late Thursday UTC.
Tropical accumulated rainfall for next week may be seen at windyty.com

Subtropical ridge (STR)
The subtropical ridge spread out across NZ /Tasman Sea tonight should travel off
to east along 40S on Mon/Tues and continue along 40 to 35S.
A new HIGH is expected to form east of New South Wales late in the week and
remain slow-moving in the north Tasman sea at around 30S next week, stretching a
tongue out eastwards along 30S. This is a light-wind barrier to tropical/NZ or
Aus sailing, but its low swells should be good for power vessels.

Tasman Sea/NZ Area troughs.
Two troughs to avoid this week. First is expected to cross Sydney on local
Monday night/Tuesday, mid Tasman and South Island on wed, and then weaken over
the North Island on Thursday local, preceded by NW winds accompanied by rain and
followed by disturbed SW/W winds.
Second trough is expected to reach New South wales area by late Thursday, mid
Tasman on Friday and NZ area by Saturday local with STRONG winds and squally
showers.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
Follow me on Facebook at www.facebook.com/metbobnz/
See my yotpak at boatbooks.co.nz/weather.html for terms used.
See my website www.metbob.com for information on tailor-made voyage forecasts-
Feedback to bob@metbob.com.
Tell anyone you like that to subscribe they should email me.
Weathergram text only (and translator) is at weathergram.blogspot.co.nz.
Weathergram with graphics is at metbob.wordpress.com,
Click FOLLOW at bottom right to subscribe.
To unsubscribe from WordPress: click the "unsubscribe" link on the bottom of the
email. Or, if email wasn't from WordPress then send a reply email saying LEAVE.
============================================================

Blog Archive