Translator

Bob McDavitt's ideas for sailing weather around the South pacific

17 September 2017

Bob Blog 17 Sep 2017

WEATHERGRAM

YOTREPS

Compiled Sun 17 September 2017

Bob McDavitt’s ideas for sailing around the South Pacific.

Disclaimer: Weather is a mix of pattern and chaos; these ideas are from the patterned world.

The state of the ENSO = weak La Nina trend now showing

The Atmosphere:

El Nino and La Nina are opposite ends of an identifiable tropical influence on our seasonal weather:  the La Nina, caused by cooler than normal seas along the equatorial eastern pacific. shifts the subtropical ridge away from the equator, and the El Nino, with warmer than normal seas, draws the subtropical ridge closer to the equator.  Their comings and goings can last several months, maybe over a year, and so their status can be used to forecast the weather for the coming season. 

The main parameter we watch from the atmosphere is the Southern Oscillation Index SOI (30 day running mean) as it sums up the whole weather pattern over the South Pacific in one number. It is based on the standardized difference in the barometer readings between Tahiti and Darwin, in other words the placement of isobars on the weather map.  When the SOI is more than plus one (standard deviation from its mean) for more than a month we call it a LA NINA event, and when it stays more than minus one we call it an EL NINO event.

So far this year there have been an unsteady swings either way, and in Aug/Sep the SOI has settled around plus 0.5 (or 5 units in the graph shown here), in the zone which some call a weak La Nina.  So, this is a hint that the subtropical ridge line may shift southwards faster than normal over the next three months.  The warming of spring/summer should reach Australia and NZ faster than normal.   Maybe this also means the tropical wet season may start earlier than normal.

Weak La Nina may be seen at www.farmonlineweather.com.au/climate/indicator_enso.jsp?c=soi&p=weekly

(Note that in this graph on the vertical axis 10= 1 standard deviation)

The Ocean:

NINO3.4 is a region in the eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean that acts as a heat storage area during an El Nino, or becomes cooler than normal during a La Nina.  This plays with the heat budget of the atmosphere and thus with the weather patterns.

At the farmonline web site we can see the trend in the sea surface temperature in the NINO3.4 area. The diagram shows the weekly temperature anomalies since Jan 2014, with the El Nino of 2015 looking like a hump on a camel. Since then there has been a cool period late 2016/early2017, and then a warm period until July 2017.  We are now in a cool period again. But only around half a degree below the old "normal"( maybe 1 degree below the new normal).

Weak La Nina is seen at www.farmonlineweather.com.au/climate/indicator_enso.jsp?c=nino34&p=monthly

The International Research Institute of the Climate Prediction Centre compiles data from several ENSO prediction models.  The early September probabilistic forecasts show the chance of La Nina is as high as 60% over next few months, dropping below 50% again early next year. CPC/IRI predictions from iri.columbia.edu/our-expertise/climate/forecasts/enso/current/

 

The sea surface temperature anomaly map has been showing MOSTLY WARMER THAN NORMAL on planet earth for months now, so that climate change is beginning to warp out the seasonal influences. The warmer than normal seas in the Atlantic has been breeding stronger than normal cyclones, but it seem that HARVEY has managed to stir the Gulf waters so they are now cooler than normal.  Reminds us that tropical cyclones are one way this planet gets rid of excess energy. Without them, worse would happen.

Latest SST anomaly map shows the wonderful cooler eddies along the equator of a typical La Nina, but the ENSO values involved are only half a degree and so it’s only half-a-La-Nina, and not being called as such yet.  I’m wondering that if we could remove the climate change trend for the data, then maybe it’d exceed the La Nina threshold. 

Sea surface temperatures are at www.ospo.noaa.gov/Products/ocean/sst/anomaly/index.html

 

TROPICS

IRMA has done its damage and JOSE is staying offshore,

LEE is Fading away,

Next in line is MARIA in the Caribbean,

And NORMA off Baja California,

and to west of NORMA is OTIS.

Meanwhile over in Northwest pacific, TC TALIM has turned away from Taiwan  and is now affecting Japan.

See www.livemint.com/Politics/s0eTyRYVnX3ZdpXLua5weJ/Typhoon-Talim-slams-Japan-hundreds-of-flights-grounded.html

 

WEATHER ZONES

SPCZ=South Pacific Convergence zone.

The SPCZ starts this week from Solomon Islands to Samoa area, and is expected to drift South so as to visit Fiji and maybe northern Tonga this weekend sat/sun/mon 23/24/25 Sep.

A passing, mainly upper, trough, is expected to travel eastwards across Niue on local Monday night and Southern Cooks on local Tuesday/Wednesday, preceded by NE/N winds, accompanied by variable winds and showers, and followed by SW/S/SE winds.

Tropical accumulated rainfall for next week may be seen at windyty.com

 

Subtropical ridge (STR)

HIGH moving off eastern Australia tonight is expected is expected to move northeast across the North Tasman Sea next few days, fading near the date line after Thursday.

Another HIGH is expected to move off eastern Australia on Thursday and travel across Northern NZ on Sunday 24 Sep and remain above 1022 and it travels east along 30S to east of NZ next week.

When these Highs are in the Northern Tasman Sea we can expect a weak squash zone in the Coral sea.

 

French Polynesia to the west:

The main obstacle this week is that travelling trough over Niue on local Monday and Rarotonga on local Wednesday. This trough may bring a day or two of variable winds south of 18S, but not much disturbance to the surface winds further north. Take into account that Tonga may receive some tropical showers early next week ( 25/26 Sep Local) from a visit from South Pacific Convergence zone.

Between NZ and the tropics:

LOW#1 is travelling Northeast across eastern NZ on Monday/Tuesday followed by strong squally SW winds and a burst of SW swell over 4 metres as far north as 28S. Avoid.

Low#2 is expected to travel northeast across central NZ on Thursday and Friday followed by a period of strong SW winds and a burst of SW swell over 4 metres as far north as 30S. Conditions easing Friday night/Saturday morning.

Best dates to depart/arrive is either Wednesday or Sunday 24 Sep.

 

If you would like more detail for your voyage, then check metbob.com to see what I offer.

 

>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> 

See my website http://www.metbob.com for more information

Feedback to bob@metbob.com or txt 6427 7762212

Weathergram text only (and translator) is at weathergram.blogspot.co.nz.

Weathergram with graphics is at metbob.wordpress.com,

Click FOLLOW at bottom right to subscribe.

To unsubscribe, send a reply email saying LEAVE.

>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> 

10 September 2017

Bob Blog 10 Sep 2017

WEATHERGRAM

YOTREPS

Compiled Sun 10 September 2017

Bob McDavitt’s ideas for sailing around the South Pacific.

Disclaimer: Weather is a mix of pattern and chaos; these ideas are from the patterned world.

TROPICS

CAT 4 IRMA is damaging parts of Florida as I write this:

Some good news about Cyclone JOSE is that it is expected to do a loop and then stay offshore as it goes north.

KATIA has gone inland, and may end up off the west coast of central America.

Meanwhile over in Northwest pacific, TC TALIM is heading for Taiwan.

 

WEATHER ZONES

SPCZ=South Pacific Convergence zone.

This week, a thin SPCZ is expected to remain across the Coral Sea.  Part of it may visit Vanuatu/ Southern Fiji and Southern Tonga tonight, and then weaken.  A smaller convergence zone may form near 8 to 10S to north and east of Samoa.

A passing, mainly upper, trough, is expected to travel eastwards across Niue on local Monday night and Southern Cooks on local Wednesday, preceded by NE winds, accompanied by variable winds and showers, and followed by SE winds.

Another passing trough may reach New Caledonia area around Monday 18  Sep local.

 

Subtropical ridge (STR)

HIGH around 1022hPa is expected to move into North Tasman Sea on Monday and then spread east along around 25 to 30S this week reaching south of French Polynesia by end of week.

Another HIGH around 1024hPa is expected to spread from Australia into northern Tasman Sea on Friday.

And then spread along 25 to 30S over next few days.

These High should maintain reasonable trade winds for sailing across the South pacific this week

French Polynesia to the west:

The main obstacle this week is that travelling trough over Niue on local Monday and Rarotonga on local Wednesday.

 Apart from that this should be a god settled week with reasonably steady winds for sailing.

Between  NZ and the tropics:

On Monday and Tuesday, the SW winds and associated large swells over NZ around a LOW to east of the South Island should slowly ease as the Low moves away.

Next front from the Tasman Sea is likely to pass across NZ on Friday,

and then a deep Low may cross southern NZ on Mon/Tue 18/19 Sep.

 

There may be some gaps between these passing fronts with OK departure for arrival/departure.

If you would like more detail for your voyage, then check metbob.com to see what I offer.

>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> 

See my website http://www.metbob.com for more information

Feedback to bob@metbob.com or txt 6427 7762212

Weathergram text only (and translator) is at weathergram.blogspot.co.nz.

Weathergram with graphics is at metbob.wordpress.com,

Click FOLLOW at bottom right to subscribe.

To unsubscribe send a reply email saying LEAVE.

>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> 

03 September 2017

Bob Blog 3 Sep 2017

WEATHERGRAM

YOTREPS

Compiled Sun 3 September 2017

Bob McDavitt’s ideas for sailing around the South Pacific.

Disclaimer: Weather is a mix of pattern and chaos; these ideas are from the patterned world.

 

Last month

Sea Surface temperature anomalies may be seen at www.ospo.noaa.gov/data/sst/anomaly/2017/anomnight.8.31.2017.gif

There continues to be more yellow than blue, more area covered by warm anomalies than by cool anomalies.

And there is still a warm river appearing along east coast of South America.

The eddies of cooler than normal water along the Eastern Equatorial Pacific looks like symptom of LA NINA, but the surrounding warmer than normal seas dilute this.

To see how the annual weather cycle and the seasons are working out, look at the average isobar maps from www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/map/images/fnl/slp_30b.fnl.html

 

In August, the subtropical ridge in the southern hemisphere lay in its normal seasonal latitudes between Fiji and NZ, with a disturbed westerly flow as far north as Bass strait to North Cape, somewhat further north than normal. Looking at the anomalies, we can see that wave 3 has been dominating proceedings, with HIGHS lingering in 3 places: South Atlantic and South Indian Oceans, and to SE of French Polynesia, and LOWS lingering in 3 places: over Chile, well south of South Africa, and over the Tasman Sea. Cyclonic northerly winds for NZ have been bringing a wet winter.

 

The wetter than normal conditions over northern NZ also show in the monthly rain map—but this map shows that peak anomaly has been to NE of NZ, and, when averaged over the whole month, is surprisingly near neutral over the NZ mainland.

 

Last 30 days of rainfall, and its anomaly, may be seen at trmm.gsfc.nasa.gov/trmm_rain/Events/thirty_day.html

The monthly rain map shows heaviest rainfall along equatorial area from Indian Ocean to Indonesia, with some heavy rain over India, Nepal and Bangladesh, and a spot of heavy rain over Houston, Texas… (Three days of epic rainfall looks minor when averaged over a month).  The anomaly map shows that the ITCZ is further north than normal--- this is a LA NINA trait, but it’s a real LOCAL La Nina.

 

TROPICS

Deluging rain from HARVEY brought damaging flooding to Houston.

The intensity of the rain in HARVEY was so much that NWS had to add a new colour to their rain map…

see www.youtube.com/watch?v=x28AcE5bxIo

And the intense monsoon continued in southeast Asia with a death toll of around 1,200 people, see www.theguardian.com/world/2017/aug/30/mumbai-paralysed-by-floods-as-india-and-region-hit-by-worst-monsoon-rains-in-years

 

This week, TC IRMA is in the Atlantic Ocean and model’s, at this stage, are suggesting that it might make landfall on North Carolina later this week.

And on the US west coast, TC LIDIA is expected to remain over the ocean put travel almost parallel to the coast.

And in the NW Pacific, remains of TC SANVU is fading as it approaches the Korean Peninsula, and a depression (MAWAR) is expected to make land fall to north of Hong Kong.

 

Last week’s rain map from trmm.gsfc.nasa.gov/trmm_rain/Events/big_global_accumlation.gif shows enhancements in the rain over SE Asia, along the equatorial Indian Ocean, about the south of Japan (due to SANVU), over Eastern Pacific in the ITCZ, and a hotspot near Houston.

 

WEATHER ZONES

SPCZ=South Pacific Convergence zone.

This week, the SPCZ is expected to remain near Solomon Islands to Tuvalu and occasionally affect Tokelau.

A passing, mainly upper, trough, is expected to travel eastwards across Niue on local Sunday night and Southern Cooks on local Tuesday, preceded by NE winds, accompanied by variable winds and showers, and followed by SE winds.

Another passing trough may reach New Caledonia area around Saturday9 Sep local.

 

Subtropical ridge (STR)

HIGH over 1034hPa is travelling east along 40S for the next few days well south of French Polynesia, and as it moves away the winds over French Polynesia should weaken and turn easterly then Northeasterly.

 

Another HIGH, around 1022hPa, in northern Tasman Sea on Monday is expected to travel east along 25 to 30S this week across the South Pacific. it should help maintain moderate SE trade winds.

 

French Polynesia to the west:

The main obstacle this week is that travelling trough over Niue on local Sunday and Rarotonga on local Tuesday.

 

Departing northern NZ to the north or east for the tropics:

On Monday, a low travelling off to east of NZ should bring SW flow to the northern north Island.

On Tuesday, there should be a passing ridge with lighter winds.

On Wednesday, the forecast is for an increasing NW winds ahead of an approaching trough.

On Thursday and Friday, expect squally west to WSW winds, and rough seas.

By Saturday night, a Low around 1002hpa is expected to travel across northern N., followed on Sunday and Monday by showery SW/S winds.

SO maybe this isn’t the week to come or go, unless you can time departure on Tuesday or arrival on early Saturday.

 

If you would like more detail for your voyage, then check metbob.com to see what I offer.

 

>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> 

See my website http://www.metbob.com for more information

Feedback to bob@metbob.com or txt 6427 7762212

Weathergram text only (and translator) is at weathergram.blogspot.co.nz.

Weathergram with graphics is at metbob.wordpress.com,

Click FOLLOW at bottom right to subscribe.

To unsubscribe from WordPress: click the “unsubscribe” link on the bottom of the email.

Or, if email wasn’t from WordPress then send a reply email saying LEAVE.

>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

27 August 2017

Bob Blog 27 Aug 2017

WEATHERGRAM

YOTREPS

Compiled Sun 27 Aug 2017

 

Bob McDavitt’s ideas for sailing around the South Pacific.

Disclaimer: Weather is a mix of pattern and chaos; these ideas are from the patterned world.

 

LISA BLAIR arrived back in Sydney yesterday—the first woman to circumnavigate Antarctica solo in a yacht.

For a VIDEO OF S/v CLIMATE ACTION NOW closing in on Sydney heads see tinyurl.com/y8zytx6h

I have been helping Lisa with some weather information during this fantastic adventure.

 

TROPICS

Both HARVEY (Texas) and PAKHAR (Hong Kong) have moved inland and turned into wet tropical depressions.

There are two tropical depressions at present, one is east of PAKHAR and is forecast to go north and stay east of Japan. T’other is in the Atlantic and is forecast to go N/NE and may sideswipe the Eastern seaboard of United States with some northerly winds on its western side.

We can see these track possibilities at ruc.noaa.gov/

 

Last week’s rain map, compared with the week before, shows the most intense rain is still around Southeast Asia in the monsoon. This is affecting 41 million people, and there have been 1200 recent deaths, see www.aljazeera.com/news/2017/08/floods-kill-1200-india-nepal-bangladesh-170826230610924.html.

 

In the tropical South Pacific, the rain map at trmm.gsfc.nasa.gov/trmm_rain/Events/big_global_accumlation.gif shows a general decrease in activity.

 

WEATHER ZONES

SPCZ=South Pacific Convergence zone.

The SPCZ is expected to stay put his week and linger across east Solomon Islands and Tuvalu slowly spread southwards towards Fiji and Samoa this week.

A trough is travelling east off NZ tonight and is expected to travel east and is expected to affect the region between NZ and south of Tonga during the next few days.

Another trough is expected to travel east across the Society Islands and Tahiti from mid-to-late week, but since this region is at the northern end of this trough, its impact is minor.

 

Subtropical ridge (STR)

HIGH 1033hPa east of NZ is expected to travel east along 40S and build to 1036hPa during Monday/Tuesday/Wednesday and then slowly ease and travel off to the southeast. Although this is 25degrees of latitude away from the tropics, this HIGH is expected to squeeze the isobars near 15S closer together forming a squash zone of strong trade winds and swells rising to 3 to 4 metres mid-week between Borabora and Samoa. Avoid.

One of my quotes applies "When the HIGH is over 1030 it's going to get dirty"

 

French Polynesia, going to the west:

Not this week. We should wait a while until after this squash zone.

 

Between NZ and the tropics:

A Low is expected to travel east across North island on Wednesday UTC and another on Friday UTC.

If in NZ, may as well stay put this week.

If travelling to NZ, arrange arrival after Sat 2 Sep.

 

Between Australia and the tropics:

Weak subtropical ridge is expected to linger over northern Tasman Sea between Queensland and south of New Caledonia. Southwest winds are likely south of 30S.

 

If you would like more detail for your voyage, then check metbob.com to see what I offer.

>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> 

See my website http://www.metbob.com for more information

Feedback to bob@metbob.com or txt 6427 7762212

Weathergram text only (and translator) is at weathergram.blogspot.co.nz.

Weathergram with graphics is at metbob.wordpress.com,

Click FOLLOW at bottom right to subscribe.

To unsubscribe send a reply email saying LEAVE.

>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>

20 August 2017

Bob Blog 20 Aug 2017

WEATHERGRAM
YOTREPS
Compiled Sun 20 Aug 2017

Bob McDavitt's ideas for sailing around the South Pacific.
Disclaimer: Weather is a mix of pattern and chaos; these ideas are from the patterned world.

The state of the ENSO
The Atmosphere:
El Nino and La Nina the opposite ends of an identifiable tropical influence on our seasonal weather: the La Nina shifts the subtropical ridge away from the equator and the El Nino draws the subtropical ridge closer to the equator. Their comings and goings can last several months, maybe over a year, and so their status can be used to forecast the weather for the coming season.
The main data from the atmosphere is the Southern Oscillation Index SOI (30 day running mean) as it sums up the weather pattern over the South Pacific as one number. It is based on the standardized difference in the barometer readings between Tahiti and Darwin, in other words the placement of isobars on the weather map. When the SOI is more than plus one (standard deviation from its mean) for more than a month we call it a LA NINA event, and when it stays more than minus one we call it an EL NINO event.
So far this year there have been an unsteady swings either way, and at present we are on the La Nina side of zero, but that has peaked so I think we are still in some more unsteady swings over the next few months, with the SOI basically hovering around zero. This means the subtropical ridge may wander a little north or south of its seasonal normal position, but not hover away from its norm long enough for us to change our cruising plans. Just keep an eye on that subtropical ridge.

An unsteady SOI is seen at www.farmonlineweather.com.au/climate/indicator_enso.jsp?c=soi&p=weekly (Note that in this graph on the vertical axis 10= 1 standard deviation)

The Ocean:
NINO3.4 is a region in the eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean that acts as a heat storage area during an El Nino, or becomes cooler than normal during a La Nina. This plays with the heat budget of the atmosphere and thus with the weather patterns.
At the farmonline web site we can see the trend in the sea surface temperature in the NINO3.4 area. The diagram shows the weekly temperature anomalies since Jan 2014, with the El Nino of 2015 looking like a hump on a camel. Since then there has been a cool period late 2016/early2017, and then a warm period until July 2017. We are now in a near zero or neutral state. .

Neutral territory as seen at ww.farmonlineweather.com.au/climate/indicator_enso.jsp?c=nino34&p=monthly

The International Research Institute of the Climate Prediction Centre compile data from several ENSO prediction models. The overall trend is towards little change later this year, with most all of the models within -0.5 and +0.5.

For CPC/IRI predictions see iri.columbia.edu/our-expertise/climate/forecasts/#ENSO_Forecasts

One seasonal prediction that can be made is that the number of tropical cyclones forming in the North Pacific Ocean over the next few months. This is likely to be more than normal, due to warmer than normal seas. It is too early at this stage to comment on the incoming South Pacific cyclone season starting later this year..... but the early indication is that, because of warmer than normal seas, there may be an increased risk.

For Sea surface temperatures across the Pacific on 17 Aug see www.ospo.noaa.gov/data/sst/anomaly/2017/anomp.8.17.2017.gif

TROPICS
At present tropical cyclone HARVEY is travelling west onto central america and KENNETH tavelling northwest off the west Mexican coas. There is a depression heading west into the China Sea and another on the Atlantic west of Africa that may travel west to Florida. We can see these tracks at ruc.noaa.gov/

Last week's rain map, compared with the week before, shows a shift of intense rain from Myanmar to Indonesia, and an easing of rain in the NW Pacific. In the tropical South Pacific, the rain map shows a passing intense trough during the past week; as mentioned in last week's weathergram. And there are continuing hotspots of intensity around Panama and Sierra Leone.
A link to the devastating mudslides in Sierra Leone is at
www.independent.co.uk/news/world/africa/sierra-leone-mudslides-latest-fears-1000-people-dead-bodies-a7902806.html

Rain for the past week is at trmm.gsfc.nasa.gov/trmm_rain/Events/big_global_accumlation.gif

WEATHER ZONES
SPCZ=South Pacific Convergence zone.
The SPCZ is expected to slowly spread southwards towards Fiji and Samoa this week.
Also a passing trough is expected to bring some rain to the Tonga and Niue area early this week and then fade away. Accumulated rainfall may be seen at from windyty.com

Generically speaking, a passing trough in the South Pacific islands is preceded by a period of weakening northerly winds, accompanied by variable winds and showers and then followed by a period of S then SE winds. Satellite imagery shows that these troughs travel eastwards, and that may appear confusing at first to someone on the ground considering these wind changes. However, if we look at a time/height diagram of the wind flow over, say, Nuku'alofa, we can see there are lots more westerly winds aloft than easterly winds at the surface, and THAT is what explains the eastward travel of these passing troughs.


For Time/height diagram over Nuku'alofa, see windyty.com, type in nukualofa as the search box then select airgram. (This diagram has the wind barbs on wrong side of arrow shaft, treating them as northern hemisphere winds).

Subtropical ridge (STR)
High is expected to build in the North Tasman sea on Monday and then travel onto northern NZ by Wednesday and then travel slowly to east of the North Island by the end of the week building to around 1029hpa. This should help maintain SE trade winds between French Polynesia and Tonga.

Between NZ and the tropics:
Low near Chatham Islands tonight is travelling off to the east. The southerly flow and swell on the backside of this low should weaken over northern NZ on Monday and Tuesday, then the outlook over northern NZ is for light winds on Wednesday to Friday, then we expect strengthening NE winds ahead of an approaching trough on Sat and Sunday.
So, the best days for getting off to the north are Monday and Tuesday, and a departure on Wednesday may be OK as well.

Between Australia and the tropics:
A trough is expected to travel off the eastern seaboard and into Tasman sea on Tuesday and then travel east across the Tasman Sea and deepen into a low on Wednesday that should reach the South Island early next week, with associated trough reaching New Caledonia around Sunday and North Island around Monday 28 August.
Any travel form Australia to tropics should be on back side of that trough, and any travel from New Caledonia to Australia this week will need to encounter this trough.

French Polynesia to the West:
There is a passing rough over tonga tonight that is travelling east and expected to fade south of Niue during Monday UTC.
After that a slow-moving and not-very-intense High /subtropical ridge along 30 to 35S should ensure moderate trade winds and swells, good for sailing westwards.
If you would like more detail for your voyage, then check metbob.com to see what I offer.

>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
See my website http://www.metbob.com for more information
Feedback to bob@metbob.com or txt 6427 7762212
Weathergram text only (and translator) is at weathergram.blogspot.co.nz.
Weathergram with graphics is at metbob.wordpress.com,
Click FOLLOW at bottom right to subscribe.
To unsubscribe, send a reply email saying LEAVE.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>

13 August 2017

Bob Blog 13 Aug 2017

WEATHERGRAM
YOTREPS
Compiled Sun 13 Aug 2017

Bob McDavitt's ideas for sailing around the South Pacific.
Disclaimer: Weather is a mix of pattern and chaos; these ideas are from the patterned world.

TROPICS
At present tropical cyclone JOVA is travelling ESE (a strange direction) off the west Mexican coast and a tropical depression is expected to take a clockwise path around the Atlantic Ocean.
Meanwhile TC BANYAN is in the Northwest Pacific and is expected to go north and then northeast - its remains may reach Alaska, perhaps.
We can see these tracks at ruc.noaa.gov/tracks/

Last week's rain map, compared with the week before, shows continuing high rainfall around the NW Pacific, and the equatorial Indian Ocean, and the equatorial Atlantic Ocean. It has been very wet around Bangladesh, and there is a build-up of activity along the South Pacific Convergence zone.

Rain for the past week is from trmm.gsfc.nasa.gov/trmm_rain/Events/big_global_accumlation.gif

WEATHER ZONES
SPCZ=South Pacific Convergence zone.
The SPCZ is expected to shrink and shift to the north this week. The build-up of shower activity that occurred last week is expected to be gathered by a tropical trough and conducted south-southeastwards across Tonga /Niue area on Wednesday 16 Aug UTC.

Subtropical ridge (STR)
High to northeast of NZ is expected to travel east along 30 to 35s this week and build to a peak of over 1035 on Thursday 17 Aug UTC. This is expected to produce a squash zone of enhanced trade winds on the north side of this High on 17 to 19 Aug UTC-this should mainly affect French Polynesia.
New High is expected to move off eastern Australia into North Tasman Sea on Monday, and to travel along 20 to 30S past northern NZ on wed/thu UTC. This high is taking the typical path of a winter anticyclone.


Between Australia /NZ and the tropics:
Light winds in the subtropics between 20 and 30s with the incoming high.
South of 30s the pattern is a typical winter of disturbed westerlies, made stronger and squally by a deep Southern Ocean low travelling east along 45 to 55S, 960hpa, in Aussie Bight by Tuesday and south of the Taman Sea by Friday. SW swells up to 5+ metres with a period over 10 seconds in Tasman sea by this weekend.

French Polynesia to the west:
The trough that is expected to travel south-southeast over the Tonga/Niue area on Wed 16 Aug is likely to dominate the landscape this week for any vessels hoping to travel westwards towards Tonga.
It is likely to be an active trough because it is taking away (southwards) the build-up of extra energy from the SPCZ. Also, as this extra warmth comes south it is likely to encounter the colder denser airmass which crossed North Island tonight showing itself as an upper trough with lots of thunder and lightning.
I'll assume that it may be better to wait for this trough to make its way south-southeast, and so delay that trip toward Tonga until later this week or early next week.
The trough should bring a brief period of strong NE winds to Niue on Wednesday morning local or Rarotonga around Friday morning local.
If you would like more detail for your voyage, then check metbob.com to see what I offer.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
See my website http://www.metbob.com for more information
Feedback to bob@metbob.com or txt 6427 7762212
Weathergram text only (and translator) is at weathergram.blogspot.co.nz.
Weathergram with graphics is at metbob.wordpress.com,
Click FOLLOW at bottom right to subscribe.
To unsubscribe send a reply email saying LEAVE.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>

06 August 2017

Bob Blog 6 Aug 2017

WEATHERGRAM
YOTREPS
Compiled Sun 6 Aug 2017

Bob McDavitt's ideas for sailing around the South Pacific.
Disclaimer: Weather is a mix of pattern and chaos; these ideas are from the patterned world.

TROPICS
NORU is still going and is expected to visit Japan this week, and NALGAR is over the open ocean further east. There are two tropical depressions on the Atlantic Ocean that may develop further during the coming week. We can see these at ruc.noaa.gov/tracks/

Last week's rain map, compared with the week before, shows continuing high rainfall around Japan, the equatorial Indian Ocean, and possibly the equatorial Atlantic ocean, and decreasing amounts elsewhere.

Rain for the past fortnight from trmm.gsfc.nasa.gov/trmm_rain/Events/big_global_accumlation.gif

WEATHER ZONES
SPCZ=South Pacific Convergence zone.
The SPCZ starts this week draped from Solomon Islands to Tuvalu and Tokelau Islands to Northern Cooks. An MJO event is moving into the western Pacific this week and that should help activate the SPCZ.
A convergence zone /trough is expected to travel east across the Society Islands on local Monday. Better to stay put for that and depart local Tuesday.
Next trough from the west is expected to reach New Caledonia on local Wednesday and Tonga area on local Friday, it's a minor trough but worthy of consideration.

Subtropical ridge (STR)
High east of NZ is expected to travel east along 30s until Thursday and then weaken as a High from further south builds around 160W.
New High is expected to move off eastern Australia into North Tasman Sea on Thursday, and travel along 28S past norther NZ by Saturday 12 Aug.

Between Australia /NZ and the tropics:
Low is expected to travel east along 40S from Monday to Wednesday across Southern Tasman sea. Moving southeast across central NZ on Thursday.

French Polynesia to the west:
A trough/convergence zone that is expected to be crossing the Society Islands on local Monday UTC. Wait until TUESDAY and its should be ok to go west from Society islands.
The SPCZ is expected to be mainly confined to the Solomon Islands to Tokelau Islands area, but may extend to Suwarrow by end of the week.

If you would like more detail for your voyage, then check metbob.com to see what I offer.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
See my website http://www.metbob.com for more information
Feedback to bob@metbob.com or txt 6427 7762212
Weathergram text only (and translator) is at weathergram.blogspot.co.nz.
Weathergram with graphics is at metbob.wordpress.com,
Click FOLLOW at bottom right to subscribe.
To unsubscribe send a reply email saying LEAVE.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>

30 July 2017

Bob Blog 30 July

WEATHERGRAM
YOTREPS
Compiled Sun 30 July 2017

Bob McDavitt's ideas for sailing around the South Pacific.
Disclaimer: Weather is a mix of pattern and chaos; these ideas are from the patterned world.

The state of the ENSO
The Atmosphere:
You may have heard about El Nino and its opposite, La Nina. They are tropical influences on the weather: the La Nina shifts the subtropical ridge away from the equator and the El Nino draws the subtropical ridge closer to the equator. Their comings and goings can last several months, maybe over a year, and so their status can be used to forecast the weather for the coming season.
A month or so ago we were on the brink of a possible El Nino, but latest data shows things are "unsteady".
The main data from the atmosphere is the Southern Oscillation Index SOI (30 day running mean) as it sums up the weather pattern over the South Pacific as one number. It is based on the standardized difference in the barometer readings between Tahiti and Darwin, in other words the placement of the isobars on the weather map. When the SOI is more than plus one (standard deviation from its mean) for more than a month we call it a LA NINA event, and when it stays more than minus one we call it an EL NINO event.
For most of the period from May 2015 to May 2016 we had an extreme El Nino. Then there was a weak La Nina in October 2016, and since then we have had several fluctuations, plus then minus, each lasting around a month. For want of a better word, I'll describe this as "UNSTEADY". The latest SOI, last week, is plus .5 (or plus 5 in the units used in the farmonline site), and shows a continuing of this "unsteady" trend.
An unsteady SOI is seen at www.farmonlineweather.com.au/climate/indicator_enso.jsp?c=soi&p=weekly

The Ocean:
NINO3.4 is a region in the eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean that acts as a heat storage area during an El Nino, or becomes cooler than normal during a La Nina. This plays with the heat budget of the atmosphere and thus with the weather patterns.
At the farmonline web site we can see the trend in the sea surface temperature in the NINO3.4 area. The diagram shows the weekly temperature anomalies since Jan 2014, with the El Nino of 2015 looking like a hump on a camel. Since then there has been a cool period late 2016/early2017 , and a warm period so far in 2017. This warmth is getting less over last few weeks. It seems that the trend in towards a neutral state.
Neutral territory is seen at www.farmonlineweather.com.au/climate/indicator_enso.jsp?c=nino34&p=monthly

The International Research Institute of the Climate Prediction Centre compile data from several ENSO prediction models. The overall trend is towards little change later this year, with most of the models on the side of a weak El Nino.
CPC/IRI predictions are at
iri.columbia.edu/our-expertise/climate/forecasts/#ENSO_Forecasts
One seasonal prediction that can be made is that the number of tropical cyclones forming in the North Pacific Ocean over the next few months is likely to be more than normal, due to warmers than normal seas. It is too early at this stage to comment on the incoming South Pacific cyclone season starting later this year.

EVIDENCE OF CLIMATE CHANGE:
People have been noting warmer summer temperatures in the Northern Hemisphere, and Dr. Hanen and two colleagues have been extracting some bell curves for various decades to compare with the 1951-1980 epoch. See www.pnas.org/content/109/37/E2415.full or /www.nytimes.com/interactive/2017/07/28/climate/more-frequent-extreme-summer-heat.html?mcubz=1
-- the New York Times doesn't explain much about the methods used, but the PNAS paper gives a full account.

TROPICS
This is the peak of the heat for the Northern summer, and, sure enough , it's busy with cyclones as we can see from ruc.noaa.gov/tracks/, showing 5 cyclones = HILARY and IRWIN east of Hawaii, and NORU, HAITANG, and NESAT between Hawaii and China. Also an "invest" area. These storms are mostly oceanic, but for NESAT heading for Taiwan with HAITANG on its heels.

Last week's rain map, from trmm.gsfc.nasa.gov/trmm_rain/Events/big_global_accumlation.gif, compared with the week before, shows continuing high rainfall over parts of India and across SE Asia to the Philippines and an increase in rain around Solomon Islands. The path of cyclone NORU stands out.


WEATHER ZONES
SPCZ=South Pacific Convergence zone.
The SPCZ starts this week draped from Solomon Islands to Tuvalu and Tokelau Islands, and slowly increasing in intensity.
A convergence zone /trough tonight stretches from Vanuatu to Fiji to Tonga containing variable winds and a few squalls. This is expected to travel southeast and deepen into a low near 30S on Tuesday UTC, that may then bomb (rapid deepening) to 972 hPa at 40S 40E by Thursday. Too far away to bother anyone, but may generate southerly swells to over 4 metres for the Gambier Islands by the weekend. Long period swells that are loved by surfers. Accompanying convergence zone is expected to pass to east of Rarotonga on Tue UTC and then stall and then return to south across Rarotonga on Sat 5 Aug UTC.


Subtropical ridge (STR)
High over NZ tonight is expected to travel northeast to 30S then eastwards at around 1020 hPa- not strong enough to enhance the southeast trade winds on its northern side.
Next High is expected to form over south Tasman sea on Tuesday and travel around the south end of NZ and then along 50S to 170W by the weekend.

Between Australia /NZ and the tropics:
Low is expected to deepen in Tasman Sea off New South Wales on Monday and then travel east across Northland on local Thursday and then travel east along 33S to east of NZ to the end of the week. It may be followed by another low deepening off the New South Wales coast on local Thursday. Avoid these lows/.

French Polynesia to the west:
The main challenge for going west this week is the trough/convergence zone that is expected to be crossing the Tongan area on Monday UTC. This zone is expected to continue southeast past Rarotonga on Tue/wed UTC and then stall and travel back southwards across Rarotonga around Sat UTC. Avoid.
This zone is not expected to have much impact any further north-a trip via Palmerston Island is likely to be mostly unaffected.
The SPCZ is expected to be confined to the Solomon Islands to Tokelau Islands area.
If you would like more detail for your voyage, then check metbob.com to see what I offer.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
See my website http://www.metbob.com for more information
Feedback to bob@metbob.com or txt 6427 7762212
Weathergram text only (and translator) is at weathergram.blogspot.co.nz.
Weathergram with graphics is at metbob.wordpress.com,
Click FOLLOW at bottom right to subscribe.
To unsubscribe, send a reply email saying LEAVE.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>

23 July 2017

Bon blog for 23 July

WEATHERGRAM
YOTREPS
Compiled Sun 23 July 2017

Bob McDavitt's ideas for sailing around the South Pacific.
Disclaimer: Weather is a mix of pattern and chaos; these ideas are from the patterned world.

CONGRATULATIONS
Bravo to Lisa Blair for being the first woman to sail solo around Antarctica below 45 South (with one stop due to a dismasting). Lisa crossed her outgoing track on Friday 21 July at 9:48pm local time. Inspirational.
I have been emailing daily weather ideas to Lisa throughout this trip, but that's just idea- sharing and does not affect her claim to have sailed this adventure solo and unassisted (but for the stop at Cape Town for a new mast). Lisa has had knock downs, giant waves, winds over 80 knots, snow, hail, bumped into a container ship, encountered an easterly gale, and wallowed in large wind holes. Her blogs are at lisablairsailstheworld.com/blog/

If you feel inspired by this accomplishment, please buy one of her beanies to help out, while they are still available. See lisablairsailstheworld.com/shop

TROPICS
This is the peak of the heat for the Northern summer, sometimes called 'the Dog Days' - named for the appearance just before dawn of Sirius, the Dog star and brightest star in the sky, from around 19 July. Sure enough, it's busy with cyclones as we can see from ruc.noaa.gov/tracks/, showing 5 cyclones = Fernanda and Greg east of Hawaii, and Kolup, Noru and Roke between Hawaii and China.
Also 3 depressions and 3 "invest" areas. These storms are mostly oceanic, but Roke seems to be heading for Hong Kong, and the remains of a faded Fernanda may bring some rain to a dry Hawai'i, if they are lucky.

Last week's rain map, compared with the week before, shows a decrease in rain around the South Pacific, and an enhancement in the rain over India, SE Asia and Indonesia.
Rain for the past week may be seen at trmm.gsfc.nasa.gov/trmm_rain/Events/big_global_accumlation.gif

WEATHER ZONES
SPCZ=South Pacific Convergence zone.
The SPCZ starts this week draped from Solomon Islands to Tuvalu and Tokelau Islands, and is having a weak week further east.
A passing trough, associated with a front in the Southern Ocean, is expected to go east across southern cooks on local Tuesday, and another may reach New Caledonia area on local Thursday and then move onto the Tongan area by local Sunday. These troughs are preceded by NE winds and followed by south or southeast winds.

Subtropical ridge (STR)
From Monday to Wednesday UTC a HIGH is expected to travel east across northern Tasman sea along 27S, and the further east to east of NZ along 30s from Thursday to Sunday UTC. There may be a squash zone of enhanced SE trade winds near 10 to 15S on the north side of this High.
From Friday to Monday UTC, another High is expected to travel east across northern Tasman sea along 30S.

Between NZ and the tropics:
Avoid the trough that is expected to be crossing northern NZ on Wed/Thu and early Friday.

French Polynesia to the west:
This looks to be a good week to go west. The SPCZ is still weak and expected to be confined to the Solomon Islands to Tokelau Islands area. However, there may be a squash zone of enhanced trade winds between Tahiti and Niue between Friday and Sunday local.
Also, a weak passing trough is expected to affect southern cooks on local Tuesday, and another may affect New Caledonia on local Thursday.
If you would like more detail for your voyage, then check metbob.com to see what I offer.

>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
See my website http://www.metbob.com for more information
Feedback to bob@metbob.com or txt 6427 7762212
Weathergram text only (and translator) is at weathergram.blogspot.co.nz.
Weathergram with graphics is at metbob.wordpress.com,
Click FOLLOW at bottom right to subscribe.
To unsubscribe send a reply email saying LEAVE.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>

16 July 2017

Bob blog 16 July 2017

WEATHERGRAM
YOTREPS
Compiled Sun 16 July 2017

Bob McDavitt's ideas for sailing around the South Pacific.
Disclaimer: Weather is a mix of pattern and chaos; these ideas are from the patterned world.

TROPICS
Tonight HURRICANE FERNANDA is travelling west-northwards away from the Mexican west coast. And it is being followed by a tropical depression.
It is vaguely heading towards Hawaii, but at its current pace will not reach those longitudes until 24 July and is likely to fade away by then.
And there is TALAS in the China Sea. The models are picking it may travel west across SE Asia , but will probably fade away inland. Cyclone tracks may be seen at https://ruc.noaa.gov/tracks/

Last week's rain map, compared with the week before, from trmm.gsfc.nasa.gov/trmm_rain/Events/big_global_accumlation.gif, shows an enhancement in the rain in Solomon islands, and relaxing rain along the ITCZ.

WEATHER ZONES
SPCZ=South Pacific Convergence zone.
The SPCZ starts this week reasonably active around Solomon Islands, and is expected to slowly weaken during the week.
A passing trough, associated with a front in the Southern Ocean, is expected to go east across New Caledonia area on local Thursday and then move onto the Tongan area on local Saturday preceded by NE winds and followed by southerlies.

Subtropical ridge (STR)
HIGH located over Northern NZ tonight is expected to travel east along 33s to east of NZ this week. It may build to over 1040 when it gets east of 140W after Friday and the should have a squash zone strong SE winds and over 3m swell on its northern side, around the Gambier Islands.

Australia to New Caledonia:
A trough is expected is to travel east across the eastern seaboard on Tuesday night local, followed by strong SW winds and large swells on Wednesday. It should be ok to depart on Thursday but the voyage will need to go ese at first and allow for ESE wind after 158E.

Departing northern NZ to the north or east for the tropics:
North to NW winds over northern NZ until a cold front crosses the area on Wednesday/Thursday. It may be ok for departure on Friday if you don't mind SW winds and 3 metres swells. Otherwise better to wait until Saturday.

French Polynesia to the west:
This looks to be a good week to go west. The SPCZ is weak and the subtropical ridge is not expected to produce much of a squash zone on this path - however you may get swell over 3 metres on Thursday UTC.
If you would like more detail for your voyage, then check metbob.com to see what I offer.

>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
See my website http://www.metbob.com for more information
Feedback to bob@metbob.com or txt 6427 7762212
Weathergram text only (and translator) is at weathergram.blogspot.co.nz.
Weathergram with graphics is at metbob.wordpress.com,
Click FOLLOW at bottom right to subscribe.
To unsubscribe send a reply email saying LEAVE.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>

09 July 2017

Bob blog 9 July

WEATHERGRAM
YOTREPS
Compiled Sun 9 July 2017
Bob McDavitt's ideas for sailing around the South Pacific.
Disclaimer: Weather is a mix of pattern and chaos; these ideas are from the patterned world.

Last month (June)
Sea Surface temperature anomalies may be seen at http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/data/sst/anomaly/2017/anomg.7.6.2017.gif
and show that there continues to be more area covered by warm anomalies than by cool anomalies. And there is still a warm river appearing along east coast of South America.
To see how the annual weather cycle and the seasons are working out, take a look at the average isobar maps from www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/map/images/fnl/slp_30b.fnl.html
In June, the subtropical ridge in the southern hemisphere has travelled NORTHWARDS. This trend is subtle and can be seen in the isobars around NZ. The STR is strong in the Indian Ocean. Looking at the anomalies, the large continuous red area from south Indian Ocean to South Australia/NZ to east of NZ in the South Pacific, shows that the STR has been covering more latitudes than normal, and encouraging blocking highs --- explaining the dry winter in Australia.
The small green anomaly in the North Tasman Sea shows that was a favoured spot for lows to deepen in June, bringing many cyclone NE winds to northern NZ, bringing wet conditions.
The wetter than normal conditions over northern NZ also shows in the monthly rain map. This monthly rain map shows heaviest rainfall in spots from Myanmar across southern China to South Japan, and over Solomons. Last 30 days of rainfall, and its anomaly, are seen at trmm.gsfc.nasa.gov/trmm_rain/Events/thirty_day.html

TROPICS
Deluging rain associated with TC NANMADOL brought damaging landslides to Japan, with a death toll of at least 15 people. See phys.org/news/2017-07-nasa-tropical-cyclone-nanmadol-japan.html
Tonight HURRICANE EUGENE is travelling northwest off and parallel to the Mexico west coast.
Last week's rain map from trmm.gsfc.nasa.gov/trmm_rain/Events/big_global_accumlation.gif
shows an enhancement in the rain in the ITCZ over Eastern Pacific, and relaxing rain in other areas.

WEATHER ZONES
SPCZ=South Pacific Convergence zone.
The SPCZ starts this week reasonably active from Solomon Island to the Tuvalu/Tokelau area, and is expected to weaken during the week.
A passing trough, associated with a front in the Southern Ocean, is expected to go east across Rarotonga area on Tuesday UTC. Another passing trough may reach New Caledonia area around Wednesday UTC and then move onto the Tongan area on Thursday UTC and may bring some NE/N winds to Niue on Friday 14 July UTC and Rarotonga on Sat 15 UTC.

Subtropical ridge (STR)
HIGH is expected to slide southeast off Australia and into the South Tasman Sea on local Wednesday and then southeast past the south of NZ on local Friday. Another HIGH, rather weak, is expected to drift odd east Aussie on Friday local and move onto northern NZ around local Sunday 16 July.

Australia to New Caledonia:
For much of this week, this voyage is between the HIGH over Australia and low pressures over NZ, so it is mainly a disturbed SW/S/SSE flow to New Caledonia, but with wind holes in passing weak ridges.
Late in the week a trough is expected to reach Brisbane area by Sat 15 July local and that should be followed by a weather pattern offering a better sailing breeze for this trip.

Departing northern NZ to the north or east for the tropics:
On Monday, decreasing SW flow over northern NZ, and a brief break in the weather there on Tuesday may allow voyages to escape to Tonga, but not to Fiji or New Caledonia.
On Tuesday, a cold southerly is expected to reach the South Island following a trough. By Wednesday, this trough is expected to deepen into a low over the North Island and linger until it finally travels off to the east on Friday. Although this low is only being fed by southerlies from around 50S, it is cold enough to be a notable winter low with rough seas and swells over 4 sig metres north of NZ on Thursday, so may as well stay put and let it pass.

French Polynesia to the west:
There is a weak passing trough over Society Islands on 10/11 Monday/Tuesday local. This is preceded by a NW flow and followed by SE to E winds. It may be better to wait until after this trough for departure to the west.
This passing trough is likely to reach Palmerston Island by around local Monday, so wait there until local Tuesday for departure.
Another passing trough is expected to reach Niue area on local Thursday 13 July with NE winds. Avoid being there then or moor well.
If you would like more detail for your voyage, then check metbob.com to see what I offer.

>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
See my website http://www.metbob.com for more information
Feedback to bob@metbob.com or txt 6427 7762212
Weathergram text only (and translator) is at weathergram.blogspot.co.nz.
Weathergram with graphics is at metbob.wordpress.com,
Click FOLLOW at bottom right to subscribe.
To unsubscribe send a reply email saying LEAVE.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>

02 July 2017

bob blog 2 July

WEATHERGRAM
YOTREPS
Compiled Sun 2 July 2017

Bob McDavitt's ideas for sailing around the South Pacific.
Disclaimer: Weather is a mix of pattern and chaos; these ideas are from the patterned world.

That was a long blog last week, so here's a nitty-gritty one this week

The Tropics
This week it's Japan's turn for a tropical storm with TC NANMADOL approaching from the southwest.

The last week's rain map
from trmm.gsfc.nasa.gov/trmm_rain/Events/big_global_accumlation.gif
shows an enhancement in the rain south of the equator in the Indian Ocean, around the coast in China, and about the Solomon Islands, and a decrease in intensity in the Intertropical convergence zone ITCZ.

WEATHER ZONES
SPCZ=South Pacific Convergence zone.
The SPCZ stretches as an almost continuous band from Papua New Guinea/Solomons to around Tuvalu/Tokelau. It is expected to stay put this week. The convergence zone over the Society Islands in French Polynesia today is expected to fade away between Society Group and Tuamotu group.

Subtropical ridge (STR)
HIGH that is in the North Tasman Sea on Monday is expected to cross northern NZ on Tuesday and then fade between NZ and Tonga between Wednesday and Friday.
A ridge is expected to remain in the north Tasman sea all week, but next HIGH to the west is NOT expected until next week over eastern Australia tonight is expected to spread into the Tasman Sea by mid-week and then onto central NZ around Thursday and further east this weekend.

Australia to New Caledonia:
May be Ok on a Monday departure, after that the ridge between Brisbane and New Caledonia offers a barrier of light winds for the remainder of the week.

Departing northern NZ to the north or east for the tropics:
An upper trough is crossing the North Island tonight and Monday with squally conditions, so best to stay put Monday.
Best day to escape between weather systems is Tuesday.
Even then there may be some strong winds on Thursday ahead of the next trough from the SW, with 3 occasionally 4 metres swells. These troughy conditions are expected to last until early next week.

French Polynesia to the west:
There is a convergence zone lurking to north of Society Islands on local Sunday, the best day of this week to go west this week is on local Monday in the trade winds that follow that convergence zone.
A passing trough is likely to reach Palmerston Island by around local Thursday followed by northerly winds as another trough lurks off to west of Palmerston Island.
If you would like more detail for your voyage, then check metbob.com to see what I offer.

>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
See my website http://www.metbob.com for more information
Feedback to bob@metbob.com or txt 6427 7762212
Weathergram text only (and translator) is at weathergram.blogspot.co.nz.
Weathergram with graphics is at metbob.wordpress.com,
Click FOLLOW at bottom right to subscribe.
To unsubscribe , send a reply email saying LEAVE.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>

25 June 2017

Bob Blog 25 June

WEATHERGRAM
YOTREPS
Compiled Sun 25 June 2017
Bob McDavitt's ideas for sailing around the South Pacific.
Disclaimer: Weather is a mix of pattern and chaos; these ideas are from the patterned world.

Perigean tides: Take extra care over the next few days as we had a new moon on Saturday and the moon's perigee was on Friday (NZ dates). The close proximity of these exaggerate the tidal forces causing extreme low and high tides. Combine that with onshore swells and lower than normal air pressure, such as at Timaru and there is a chance that waves will wash higher inland at high tide.
Up to date graphs of the sea level are at www.niwa.co.nz/our-science/coasts/tools-and-resources/sea-levels/, the yellow moon marks perigee and purple is for the new moon.

Thanks:
Thanks to PJ at Perceivingacting channel for posting info to my Facebook site last week about the tip on how to edit the earth.nullschool url to change date.
And thanks to Captain Simon Catterson for showing me around the three-masted, square rigged barque Tenacious when it was in Auckland this week. They are providing valuable training around the world, see their web site at www.jst.org.uk

WEATHERGRAMS/YOTREPS:
These weathergrams have been going weekly for over 20 years, making this blog one of the longest surviving on the Internet. The original inspiration for my blog was to help by mate Mike Harris as he started the YOTREPS scheme. I was hoping this would be a way to get yacht weather observations into the view of those meteorologists who compile the marine weather warnings. It has now come to the stage that Mike Harris is seeking to hand the YOTREPS reporting scheme onto a new enthusiast/manager. I am willing to allow my weathergrams to be part of the package.
So here's Mike's request, and if you can see this in your future please get in touch with him straight away.

NEWS ITEM
YOTREPS 20 years of passage Reporting 20/6/2017
Everyone likes to talk about the weather, but for cruising sailors it's more than just a topic of casual conversation. It has a say on where you can go, when you can go and whether you will be comfortable or sick. It is the power in your sails.
Most long term, live-aboards will be familiar with the many amateur and commercial marine radio stations as a source of forecasts. For safety reasons, many also run traffic lists taking daily reports of positions and weather from boats on passage. The volume of data collected is quite considerable and I'd often wondered what happened to it after the net had closed down. On further investigation I found that often it was kept for a short time then dumped. This was not because it had no value, but because it was not prepared to an agreed standard and could not be delivered to forecasters quickly enough for them to make use of it.

For decades commercial vessels taking part on the VOS (Voluntary Observing Ship) scheme have contributed observations to forecast agencies so the idea had president. In some parts of the world, sailing boats may be the only visitors seen, so their reports can be especially useful, but on the other hand they are unlikely to have trained observers and the calibration of their instruments is not assured. For these reason their data is not used to prepare forecasts but as an independent 'reality' check on their accuracy.

In 1995 these were the ideas that in consultation with Bob McDavitt of New Zealand MetService, lead to the formation of YOTREPS. It provided radio net controllers with a program for logging reports and forwarding them to a server for checking, encoding, forwarding to met. Forecasters and plotting on a web page chart along with a text for news and comments. This has been shown to be an enormously popular feature and the reason that many use the service.

The first YOTREPS report was received in 1996 and now has several hundreds of thousands of reports. Many complete circumnavigations and expeditions have been tracked. The largest vessel was the Queen Elizabeth II. and smallest, I am not sure.

A New Future for YOTREPS
The original php script that I wrote for YOTREPS has, except for some brief breaks while upgrading, operated for some 20 years with very little need for attention. Within the past few weeks I have re-written the scripts to run under current versions of PHP, MySQL and Nginx and should be good for some time to come. However a deteriorating health condition has shown me that now would also be a good time to look for a new manager and place in cyber-space for YOTREPS.

Requirements for the new enthusiast are:
1. A deep and committed interest in all aspects of long distance sailing.
2. A good depth of technical experience in radio communications, and computer technology.

An alternative future could be with an organisation such as a yacht club or radio station. Here the management and technical details could shared and in all probability the computer components installed as an adjunct to an existing web site.

YOTREPS provides a position and weather reporting service. It's free and open to anyone, anywhere in the world. You do not need to be a member of any particular club or have any special license to take part. If you think it could have a future with your club or cruising organisation or fit within your own cruising life style as it did with mine, I should very much like to hear your ideas*.

Mike Harris VK7AAA mike@pangolin.co.nz Please first be sure to be familiar with the YOTREPS pages on pangolin.co.nz and
see www.churchilltrust.com.au/media/fellows/Harris_Mike__2005.pdf

FLEET MAPS: One of the many achievements of the YOTREPS website is to give yachts that only have email access the tools to look at the bigger weather picture. In the South Pacific there is a weather feature unlike anything found anywhere else, called the south pacific convergence zone. It behaves like a wriggly dragon and contains squally showers but is almost invisible in the computer grib data, which tend to show it as an area of light variable winds. Cruising yachts need a weather map which shows exactly where this zone is located, and this is exactly what is given in the Fiji Met Service weather maps which are converted into FLEET code. The FLEET code dates back to WWII and was used to send weather maps to the whole fleet via morse code.
This is how the yachts get and view it:
FIRST (before departure) download and install PhysPlot.exe on your PC (no Mac version) from www.pangolin.co.nz/physplot, part of the YOTREPS website.
Then request the Fiji Fleet code by sending an email to query@saildocs.com, no subject needed, with the message "SEND nadi-fleetcode"
(without the quotes).
An email should arrive back. To view the map, save the number-table in that email to your desktop (or somewhere you can find it) as , for example, fleet.txt then open this file with PhysPlot-
This will show the various convergence zones that make up the SPCZ as brown lines. Black lines are isobars and red/blue lines are passing fronts.

The Tropics
Last Thursday (local) Tropical Cyclone CINDY made landfall on the Gulf coast bringing heavy rain from Louisiana to the Florida Panhandle.
The monsoon is making progress across Asia and into China, and recent heavy rain has triggered a massive landslide at Xinmo village in Sichuan province.
The last week's rain map
from trmm.gsfc.nasa.gov/trmm_rain/Events/big_global_accumlation.gif
shows an enhancement in the rain over China, the Solomon Islands, the Gulf of Mexico (CINDY) and a decrease in activity around Samoa and the equatorial Atlantic.


WEATHER ZONES
SPCZ=South Pacific Convergence zone.
The SPCZ stretches as an almost continuous band from Papua New Guinea/Solomons to around Tuvalu/Tokelau. It is expected to slowly drift south this week, reaching Samoa Islands around Thursday/Friday, and maybe reaching Fiji this weekend or early next week.
A passing trough is expected to cross the southern cooks by Thursday and then the Austral Islands around Friday/Saturday local.

Subtropical ridge (STR)
HIGH that is over eastern Australia tonight is expected to spread into the Tasman Sea by mid-week and then onto central NZ around Thursday and further east this weekend.

Australia to New Caledonia:
Not for much of this week. As that High travels east across the Tasman Sea there is likely to be too much in the way of southeast winds. A low is expected to form in the Tasman SEA from Thursday, and that may allow a reasonable voyage eventually in its wake, too far away to tell just yet.

Departing northern NZ to the north for the tropics:
Looks ok with a departure on Monday or Tuesday with a High in the Tasman sea and a LOW to east of NZ. Only light winds on Wednesday, and after that the voyage is likely to encounter northerly winds ahead of the next incoming low, so not a good idea.

New Zealand to the east (Tahiti)
Maybe ok for departure in the SW winds early this week and then with the lighter winds of the high that is expected to travel east of NZ late this week. There are lows near 30 to 40S at present, and the voyage may be able to ride in the westerly winds north of these lows at around 25S this week.

French Polynesia to the west:
The recent squash zone of enhanced trade winds and over 3m swells is expected to ease off on Sunday/ Monday. There is a passing trough with variable winds and possible showers, reaching the southern cooks by Thursday local, and Society Islands around local Friday/Saturday, and then settled trade winds with average swell heights.

If you would like more detail for your voyage, then check metbob.com to see what I offer.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
See my website http://www.metbob.com for more information
Feedback to bob@metbob.com or txt 6427 7762212
Weathergram text only (and translator) is at weathergram.blogspot.co.nz.
Weathergram with graphics is at metbob.wordpress.com,
Click FOLLOW at bottom right to subscribe.
To unsubscribe send a reply email saying LEAVE.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>

18 June 2017

Bobgram 18 June

WEATHERGRAM
YOTREPS
Compiled Sun 18 June 2017

Bob McDavitt's ideas for sailing around the South Pacific.
Disclaimer: Weather is a mix of pattern and chaos; these ideas are from the patterned world.

In last week's blog I mentioned a tip about earth.nullschool.com, that it can be used like a time-machine by using the >> symbol (or do a shift k) to go forward a day, or, to go back a day, click the << symbol (or do a shift j)
Thanks once more to the crew of SV Legacy, we can extend this tip; here's a quicker way to dial up the date we wish to visit:
If you click one of the date arrows in the control menu to change the date or time, the URL will show a date...
Then you can just CHANGE THAT DATE IN THE URL to suit yourself and hit enter. It can be a little confusing as the date in the URL is UTC and the default display in the "earth" menu is local.
There is data stored at the earth.nullschool website from 1 November 2013.

The year is turning;
Solstice is at 0424UTC on Wednesday June 21st. Enjoy.
For those of you who are celestial navigators, little d is zero at the solstice. Yippee.

The Tropics
The monsoon has slowed down to a crawl over the northwest end of India/Pakistan :
Monsoon progress map from www.imd.gov.in/pages/monsoon_main.php

Tropical Cyclone MERBOK gave Hong Kong a pounding last Tuesday night (local) cancelling 41 flights and delaying more than 300.
See www.scmp.com/news/hong-kong/health-environment/article/2097971/observatory-lowers-signal-typhoon-merbok-leaves

Tonight, there are some tropical depressions off the east coast of Central America, and the east coast of South America (north of the equator). These one near Belize is expected to travel north then northeast, and the one near 5N40W is expected to travel off to the WNW towards Honduras.

The last week's rain map shows a stalled monsoon over India and a build-up of convection around Malaysia/ Indonesia to Papua New Guinea. The track of MERBOK can be seen. The intense rain that visited Tuvalu /Tokelau two weeks ago has faded in the past week. And there is a wet low forming in the Tasman sea.

Rain for the past fortnight from trmm.gsfc.nasa.gov/trmm_rain/Events/big_global_accumlation.gif

WEATHER ZONES
SPCZ=South Pacific Convergence zone.
The SPCZ stretches as an almost continuous band from Papua New Guinea/Solomons to around northern Vanuatu/Wallis/Futuna and then between Southern Cooks and Society Islands. It is expected to travel somewhat to north and east this week, visiting Samoa on Saturday/Sunday UTC then may go south again.

A trough is expected to cross the Austral Islands around Thursday 22 June UTC and then form a low to the southeast of French Polynesia that should travel off to the southeast and deepen. Associated front is expected to cross the Society Islands on Thursday UTC and the Tuamotu Islands on Friday UTC.

Subtropical ridge (STR)
High that is departing NZ on Monday is expected to travel east along 40s to around 160w and then merge with a 1040 hPa high developing in cold air near 50s 150w for a day or so.
Next high is forming over SE Australia on Monday Tuesday, and may have its easterly progress blocked by that Tasman Low and so is expected to travel slowly north and reach the North Tasman sea by the weekend.

Australia to New Caledonia:
There was a good-enough looking opportunity over the weekend for this voyage, riding in the southerly winds on back end of the Tasman Low.
A departure on Monday may encounter strong southerly winds and rough seas for starters and then have a reasonable voyage. A Tuesday or later departure may encounter easterly head winds this weekend.

Departing northern NZ to the north for the tropics:
Not this week. Low has formed in the Tasman Sea and is expected to travel across NZ on Tuesday to Saturday, after that the prospects are ok for good enough weather for departure from next Sunday 25 June.

New Zealand to the east (Tahiti)
A departure on Monday (depending on where you are) may be in moderate northeast winds or light winds-and may be a possibility. After Monday, the incoming low is expected to bring increasing NE winds and rain, so may as well stay-put for the next opportunity from Sunday 25 June.

French Polynesia to the west:
There is a squash zone of enhanced trade winds from now until around Wednesday 21 UTC between Rarotonga and Niue, as a large HIGH travels east along 40s.
A trough is forecast to be crossing the Austral and Society islands on Thursday UTC and then the Tuamotu Islands on Friday UTC, preceded by weakening NE winds, accompanied by showers, and followed by moderate to fresh south to southeast winds. Stay put during the trough, and jump a ride on those southerlies once the swell is ok.

If you would like more detail for your voyage, check metbob.com to see what I offer.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
See my website http://www.metbob.com for more information
Feedback to bob@metbob.com or txt 6427 7762212
Weathergram text only (and translator) is at weathergram.blogspot.co.nz.
Weathergram with graphics is at metbob.wordpress.com,
Click FOLLOW at bottom right to subscribe.
To unsubscribesend a reply email saying LEAVE.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>

11 June 2017

Bob Blog 11 June

WEATHERGRAM
YOTREPS
Compiled Sun 11 June 2017

Bob McDavitt's ideas for sailing around the South Pacific.
Disclaimer: Weather is a mix of pattern and chaos; these ideas are from the patterned world.

In this week's blog I'd like to let you in on a not so well-known trick with earth.nullschool.net, the website that gives an interactive view of data from the weather GFS mode, the oceanic OSCAR, RTGSST, and WAVEWATCHIII models and the chemical GEOS-5, and CAMS models.

When the word "earth" is clicked on, a menu appears, the first line gives the chosen timestamp for the displayed map, and the fifth line is labelled Control and allows the user to change the timestamp.

So, to go forward an hour, click the > symbol (or the k key), or to go forward a day, click the >> symbol (or do a shift k)

Also, to go back an hour, click the < symbol (or the j key), or to go back a day, click the << symbol (or do a shift j)

The "not so well-known trick" is that the model data goes forward in time for around 33 days for wind data from the GFS model. This is interesting, but keep in mind that weather is mix of pattern and chaos, and a computer model extrapolates the numbers of a captured pattern, and ignores the chaos. The normal rule of computer modelling applies, namely that its mimicry of the real-world fades to below useful after around 5 days. Still, it's interesting to watch what features may pop up next month.

Going the opposite way, into the past, is very useful indeed. I recommend that those of you who have recently finished a voyage use this feature. Looks like you will have to do it one day at a time, but from what I can see the data available goes back beyond a month. You can use this site to review the ACTUAL weather during your voyage, and zoom in and see just where wind or waves came from that ruined your sleep at such-and-such a stage of the trip. My thanks to the crew of SV LEGACY who alerted me to this trick.

The Tropics
Tropical Cyclone 04W MERBOK is forming in the China Sea and heading north, and expected to make landfall as a gale to east of Hong Kong on Monday night local.

The last week's rain map from trmm.gsfc.nasa.gov/trmm_rain/Events/big_global_accumlation.gif shows a well-established monsoon over India and a build-up of convection around Malaysia to Philippines, also across Papua New Guinea to Solomons. This seems to be related to an MJO that is moving east. However the parameters we follow seem to show this MJO is weakening during the coming week.

The ITCZ west of Mexico also intensified last week.

WEATHER ZONES
SPCZ=South Pacific Convergence zone.
The SPCZ stretches as an almost continuous band from Papua New Guinea/Solomons to around northern Vanuatu/Wallis/Futuna and then between Southern Cooks and Society Islands. It is expected to travel somewhat to north and east this week, visiting Samoa on Thursday/Friday UTC then may go west again.

Subtropical ridge (STR)
High that is in the central Tasman Sea tonight is expected to travel to north of NZ and fade there on Tuesday.
New High is expected to form in central Tasman sea around Wednesday and then move slowly east across central NZ on Saturday UTC.

Australia to New Caledonia:
Not this week. Too much easterly wind on north side of the Tasman Highs. Also there is expected to be a trough off the Queensland coast from Monday night to Wednesday local.

Departing northern NZ to the north for the tropics:
Weather pattern is Ok for going north this week, but try and minimize time spent motoring across the light winds of the subtropical ridge.
Also avoid departing Tuesday/Wednesday due to strong winds/swell from a passing front.

New Zealand to the east (Tahiti)
On Wednesday, a deep low is expected to travel to northeast across the sea east of South Island, with Southerly storm and swell up to 11m offshore.
Wait for that to go first, may be Ok for a departure Thursday or Friday.

French Polynesia to the west:
The SPCZ is lingering as a band across the route.
IF you depart this week aiming for Niue/Tonga/Rarotonga, then will need to sail thru the SPCZ at some stage. It should be east of Niue from end of Sunday local date, and east of Palmerston from around end of Monday local date.
A voyage to Suwarrow should stay north of SPCZ in light to moderate East to NE winds.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
See my website www.metbob.com for more information
Feedback to bob@metbob.com or txt 6427 7762212
Weathergram text only (and translator) is at weathergram.blogspot.co.nz.
Weathergram with graphics is at metbob.wordpress.com,
Click FOLLOW at bottom right to subscribe.
To unsubscribe, send a reply email saying LEAVE.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>

04 June 2017

Bob Blog 4 June 2017

WEATHERGRAM
YOTREPS
Compiled Sun 04 June 2017

Bob McDavitt's ideas for sailing around the South Pacific.
Disclaimer: Weather is a mix of pattern and chaos; these ideas are from the patterned world.

Last month
Sea Surface temperature anomalies may be seen at www.ospo.noaa.gov/data/sst/anomaly/2017/anomnight.6.1.2017.gif
There continues to be more area covers by warm anomalies than by cool anomalies.
And now there is a warm river appearing along east coast of South America.

To see how the annual weather cycle and the seasons are working out, take a look at the average isobar maps for May compared with April using data from www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/map/images/fnl/slp_30b.fnl.html

In May, the subtropical ridge in the southern hemisphere has travelled NORTHWARDS. This trend is subtle and doesn't show much in the isobars, but can be seen in the anomalies. There also seems to be a persistent trend for High pressure systems to linger around southern New Zealand, and this encourages southerly winds and cold fronts that herald them to often visit eastern New Zealand, a recipe for good winter alpine snow.
TRMM offers monthly rainfall maps at trmm.gsfc.nasa.gov/trmm_rain/Events/thirty_day.html
These show wetter than normal conditions over northern NZ. The heaviest rainfall last month was in spots from India to Papua New Guinea, also off the west coast of central America (Cyclone Adrian). Samoa had a wet month due to Cyclone Ella.

The Tropics
In my last blog, a week ago, Cyclone MORA was just forming. During the week MORA It brought a deluge to Sri Lanka and wind/rain damage to Bangladesh and Myanmar. The Sri Lanka rain marks a wet start to the 2017 Asian Monsoon, and a quick end to the 2017 Everest climbing season. More about Cyclone MORA from en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cyclone_Mora

There are no cyclones or tropical depressions around tonight.

The last week's rain map (fromtrmm.gsfc.nasa.gov/trmm_rain/Events/big_global_accumlation.gif)
shows a build-up of convection around Malaysia and Philippines, also across Papua new Guinea to Solomons /Vanuatu. This seems to be related to an MJO that is moving east, and may trigger tropical depressions in Micronesia in next few weeks.

Then again, models are picking this MJO to weaken the week.


WEATHER ZONES
SPCZ=South Pacific Convergence zone.
There is a convergence zone lingering between 5 and 10S from Tuvalu to Tokelau. Occasionally this zone affects Samoa, and Wallis/Futuna.
The main part of the SPCZ stretches from active-activity across Papua New Guinea and Solomons to quieter-activity south of Fiji and Tonga/Southern Cooks, where it merges into some jetstream cloud and the remains of an old cold front. All this is expected to travel north and east this week so that the SPCZ may reach Society islands of western FP this weekend.
Tropical accumulated rainfall for next week may be seen at windyty.com

Subtropical ridge (STR)
Next High departing Australia is likely to travel across the South Tasman Sea on Wednesday and then across Southern NZ on Thursday and Friday.

Australia to New Caledonia:
A Low is expected to form on the front in the South Tasman Sea on Monday. This Low should then travel northeast onto northern New Zealand by the weekend. This offers a period of W/SW wind son the back of this low good for getting from Australia to Noumea.
To catch these, you need to depart on Monday or Tuesday.

Departing NZ to the north for the tropics:
On Monday a small low is expected to cross the North Island. The SW winds that follow this on Tuesday offer the best opportunity for departure this week. They voyage is likely to encounter some NE winds and a passing front around Friday. If you wish to wait for the next opportunity, then that may be around middle of next week 13/14 June.

New Zealand (Northland) to the east (Tahiti)
After the Monday Low, there should be good departures to the east on Tuesday and Wednesday.

French Polynesia to the west (New):
There is an approaching SPCZ.
IF you depart this week aiming for Tonga then you will need to sail thru the SPCZ to get to Tonga, or IF you aim for Palmerston/Raro/Suwarrow, then will need to get across the light winds ahead of the approaching SPCZ.
For a voyage with good trade winds, wait for the SPCZ to fade or pass over Society Islands around Sat 10 June and then depart around 11 June.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
See my website http://www.metbob.com for more information
Feedback to bob@metbob.com or txt 6427 7762212
Weathergram text only (and translator) is at weathergram.blogspot.co.nz.
Weathergram with graphics is at metbob.wordpress.com,
Click FOLLOW at bottom right to subscribe.
To unsubscribe send a reply email saying LEAVE.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>

Blog Archive