Issued 15 June 2008
Bob McDavitt's ideas for South Pacific sailing weather.
(Disclaimer: Weather is a mix of pattern and chaos, these ideas come
from the patterned world of weather maps, so please fine-tune to your
I should have mentioned last week that weathergram.blogspot.com is an
ADDITIONAL way to get this weathergram. I'll keep emailing them as
Galapagos to Marquesas: Back to other route this week-head direct for
4S 96E then go straight. This will avoid the strong east-going current
and use the winds best: winds are SE over Galapagos and turn easterly to
west of 110E.
The South Pacific Convergence Zone was active last week- and showing
signs of a pulse of extra convection. It mainly extends from Papua New
Guinea to Solomons to Fiji and then faded further to the southeast. A
trough moving along the SPCZ brought heavy rain to Fiji and this is
finally moving off tonight 15 June. This week the SPCZ is expected to
drift north and should affect Samoa to Southern Cooks/southern French
Hmm, the trough I was talking about last week to "fade away" on Friday
13th in the Tasman Sea, didn't do that-it stalled and, over the weekend,
has been deepening near Lord Howe Island to below 1000, making a heavy
southerly swell on its western side. Well it is now expected to move
east and fade to north of Northland on Thursday. Its fronts should
attack northern and eastern North Island on Monday and Tuesday. Avoid
these fronts and be mindful of this Low. There is a companion low to
southwest of Fiji tonight - and it should follow those fronts onto
northern Northland and fade away.
That new big-fat-High over Victoria today is expected to spread east and
cross the South Island on Tuesday-Wednesday and to expand as it moves
over Chathams and further east on Thursday-Friday-Saturday. This will
enhance the trade winds between Southern Cooks and Fiji for a few days.
Loos at this stage that a low might form on the northwest shoulder of
this BFH, as they do, and that will be to south of Southern cooks,
taking that squash zone south-wards.
After the BFH, there will be a large trough filling the entire Tasman
Sea next weekend in time for this year's winter solstice, and moving
onto NZ early next week. We will look at that in the next weathergram.
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