Issued 21 March 2011
Bob McDavitt's ideas for sailing around the South Pacific.
Disclaimer: Weather is a mix of pattern and chaos; these ideas are from the patterned world of weather maps, so please fine-tune to your place. Dates are in UTC unless otherwise stated.
I didn't get time to issue a regular weathergram yesterday == I was driving back to
La NINA is still strong, and weakening. The Southern Oscillation Index 30day running mean moved from 2.17 on 11 March to 1.95 on 20 March.
There have been some signs of extra convection off the eastern sea-board if
South Pacific Convergence Zone SPCZ is loosely draped from Solomons to
HIGH 1 is typical of a La Nina summer high – wondering off to east of
HIGH 2 is actually one from the sub-polar regions, today 21 March/Equinox it is at 50 to 55S to south of
HIGH 3 is expected to take a more northern route – crossing
There are useful trade winds on the northern side of all these Highs.
A sub-tropical low formed on the western shoulder of HIGH 1 — and tonight / Tuesday is moving SE and sideswiping the NE of North Island. It may deepen to below 1000 when east of southern Hawke’s Bay, bringing them wind and rain after a long dry spell - a good chance, too, for Wairarapa and maybe for
A large sub polar low is expected to follow HIGH 2, with a minor front crossing NZ over the weekend - preceded by a strong N to NW flow on Friday/Sat 25/26 March and followed by disturbed windy and showery W/SW flow on Sunday 27 to Wed 30 March – something more like winter is on its way.
SO it may be an idea to avoid North Island/ Tasman Sea this week
- Weather pattern here should settle by mid next week.
The terms used are more fully explained in the METSERVICE Yacht Pack.
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