Issued 18 September 2011
Disclaimer: Weather is a mix of pattern and chaos; these ideas are from the patterned world of weather maps, so please fine-tune to your place. Dates are in UTC unless otherwise stated.
The tropical ocean temperatures in mid-pacific are near normal, however there are signs of a growing pool of cooler-than-normal sea near Galapagos--- so much that it has exceeded USA's Climate prediction centre CPC's threshold and they have called it a new La Nina. Over the entire Pacific, it is sort of neutral with bursts of La Nina at times.
From the atmosphere, the Southern Oscillation Index SOI is hovering slightly above zero: its 30day running mean was 0.49 on 10 Sep and 0.44 in 17 Sep. There has been some lingering La Nina weather patterns in the atmosphere last month, but the sub tropical ridge STR is now near its normal position.
In fact: the South Pacific this week seems to be a continuation of last week- with trade winds in the tropics, disturbed westerly winds to south of 30S and the subtropical ridge STR sitting mainly along 25S—something like the seasonal norm, and this week's disturbed westerlies are looking to be quieter than last week's.
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE STR
A steady STR staying along about 25S. STR in this position should maintain fresh to strong SE winds in the
One weak high cell should cross the North Tasman Sea on Monday 19 Sep and
TASMAN SEA/NZ AREA
Disturbed westerly flow in
Last week the disturbances were severe at times… hail in
The timing of these sequences may still change and anyone following the
If you are planning to sail from Tonga/Fiji./Vanuatu/
I'm just back this evening from a great Boat Show in Auckland.
Great new site-- thanks to organizers, and to Auckland City for helping sorting the parking!
The terms used are as explained in the METSERVICE Yacht Pack.
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