Bob McDavitt's ideas for sailing weather around the South pacific

22 June 2014

BobBlog 22 June 2014

Issued 22 June 2014
Bob McDavitt's ideas for sailing around the South Pacific.
Disclaimer: Weather is a mix of pattern and chaos; these ideas are from the
patterned world of weather maps, so please fine-tune to your place.
Dates are in UTC unless otherwise stated.

Scott is now 75% across, in his attempt to Kayak the Tasman Sea, and maybe
15 days away from New Plymouth. MetBob is helping this attempt with weather
information. Scott had an airdrop on Friday and that has increased his
costs, however he is raising funds for the Asthma Foundation. You can help
him by checking out

CRISTINA exploded into life on 12 June off the west coast of North
America, and HAGIBIS hit Guangdong (China) on 15 June.
The Indian Monsoon is still arriving late, and thus there has been a heat
wave ahead of it over north central India, with 371 heatstroke victims and
temperatures in Delhi reaching 45C for six days straight.
Tropical rain maps over the past two weeks show that the International
convergence zones is starting to expand. The South Pacific Convergence zone
is remaining closer than normal to the equator.
There has been some torrential rain in Natal at eastern end of Brazil,
intense enough to produce sinkholes and landslides. Apparently the rain in
Natal is not stopping the parties in the streets after the World Cup games.

SPCZ= South Pacific Convergence Zone
This is stronger than last week and slowly spreading south. It is likely to
trigger a trough that should develop as it crosses Fiji and Tonga on
Monday/Tuesday UTC and then deepen into a low over Southern Cooks on
Wednesday / Thursday UTC and then travel off to the SE.

STR= Sub-tropical Ridge
The STR is in its normal latitude position of 30 to 40S this week. One High
cell over NZ on Monday is expected to travel east along 40S, and another
High Cell travelling across central Australia on Wednesday is expected to
travel across northern NZ on Saturday/ Sunday 28/29 June UTC.

Departing from NZ to the tropics
Large trough is crossing Tasman Sea and NZ over next few days, the fronts
are expected to cross NZ on Wednesday/Thursday local, preceded by N /NE
flow, accompanied by rain and followed by W winds. These winds should back
to showery SW winds for Friday and Saturday.
SO if departing from Northland for the tropics this week better to wait
until late Thursday for departure.

Departing westwards from Tahiti:
If going just as far as Southern Cooks then it may be OK for a Sunday local
It is a good idea to wait for that trough to reach and move off Tahiti 
from Saturday 28 June local.

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