Bob McDavitt's ideas for sailing weather around the South pacific

10 August 2014

BobBlog issued 10 August 2014

Issued 10 August 2014
Bob McDavitt's ideas for sailing around the South Pacific.
Disclaimer: Weather is a mix of pattern and chaos; these ideas are from the
patterned world of weather maps, so please fine-tune to your place.
Dates are in UTC unless otherwise stated.

There is a closer gap between perigee (1743UTC 10 Aug) and full moon
(1809UTC 10 Aug) this month than there was last month or will be next month,
and so tonight is the biggest full moon of the year, followed for the next
three days by KING TIDES. Take care out there.

More action in the past week with 5 cyclones across the Pacific and Atlantic
basin at once.
ISELLE hit Hawaii hard, and it is looking as if JULIO, following it, has
now diverted to the north.
And at present TC HALONG is crossing Japan

SPCZ= South Pacific Convergence Zone
Continues to be rather weak, but a branch is expected to intensify over
Tonga on Thursday/Niue on Friday/ and Southern Cooks on Friday UTC.

STR= Sub-tropical Ridge
An intense HIGH is expected to build to over 1040 in the Aussie Bight by
Wednesday. This intensifies the winds over Australia. This High is
expected to travel NE across the Tasman Sea and weaken to below 1030 by the
time it reaches NZ around early next week, but should bring a squash zone of
enhanced trade winds to Coral Sea by Thursday spreading to Fiji by Friday.

Departing westwards from Tahiti:
OK to depart and travel west to Suwarrow, but a departure to more southern
places such as Niue are likely to encounter a convergence zone late in the

Departing from NZ to the tropics
An intense front is crossing NZ on Monday and Tuesday followed by a strong
cold S/SW flow on Wednesday to Friday. This should relax on Saturday and
weaken on Sunday/Monday as that HIGH arrives over northern NZ.

See my yotpak at for terms used.
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