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Bob McDavitt's ideas for sailing weather around the South pacific

23 December 2014

Bob Blog

WEATHERGRAM
YOTREPS
Issued 24 December 2014
Bob McDavitts ideas for sailing around the South Pacific.
Disclaimer: Weather is a mix of pattern and chaos; these ideas are from the
patterned world.

I want to offer the best of greetings and good things to you and yours for
Christmas and the Yule-tide season.
This extra blog from me gives me the opportunity to update you with that
tropical low between Samoa and Tahiti as seen at
http://www.meteo.pf/observation.php?carte=pf
and at http://www.met.gov.fj/aifs_prods/0640.gif

The latest thinking about this feature is as follows:
>>>>
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A5 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Dec 23/1939
UTC 2014 UTC.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 03F CENTER [999HPA] ANALYSED NEAR 13.8S 158.8W AT
231800UTC. DEPRESSION MOVING EAST AT ABOUT 06 KNOTS. MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE
AVERAGE WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ESTIMATED AT ABOUT 30 KNOTS.

OVERALL ORGANISATION HAS IMPROVED PAST 24 HOURS. DEEP CONVECTION HAS
INCREASED AND IS OVER THE EASTERN SEMI CIRCLE OF LLCC. SYSTEM LIES UNDER A
STRONG UPPER DIVERGENT REGION IN A LOW TO MODERATE SHEARED ENVIRONMENT.
OUTFLOW GOOD TO THE EAST AND NORTH BUT RESTRICTED ELSEWHERE. CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION EXTENDS UP TO 500HPA. SST AROUND 29 DEGREES CELCIUS. DVORAK
ANALYSIS BASED ON 0.4 WRAP GIVING DT=2.5, MET AND PT AGREE. FT BASED ON DT
THUS YEILDING T2.5/2.5/D0.5/24HRS.

GLOBAL MODELS AGREE ON A EASTERLY MOVEMENT THEN SOUTHEAST WITH FURTHER
INTENSIFICATION.

POTENTIAL FOR THIS SYSTEM TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT
12 TO 24 HOURS IS MODERATE TO HIGH.

FORECASTS:
AT 12 HRS VALID 240600 UTC 14.2S 158.1W MOV ESE AT 04KT WITH 35 KNOTS CLOSE
TO CENTRE AT 24 HRS VALID 241800 UTC 15.2S 157.5W MOV SE AT 05KT WITH 40
KNOTS CLOSE TO CENTRE
OUTLOOK:
AT 36 HRS VALID 250600 UTC 16.4S 157.3W MOV SSE AT 06KT WITH 45 KNOTS CLOSE
TO CENTRE AT 48 HRS VALID 280600 UTC 17.6S 157.3W MOV S AT 06KT WITH 45
KNOTS CLOSE TO CENTRE

THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON TD03F WILL BE ISSUED AT OR AROUND
240200UTC.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>
Updates on this Disturbance summary as seen at
http://www.met.gov.fj/aifs_prods/20032.txt
SO it is expected to go east then SE and may develop more and get named as a
tropical cyclone by Christmas Day.
If you are in the Tahiti/Southern Cooks area, then I recommend vigilance.

bob

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