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Bob McDavitt's ideas for sailing weather around the South pacific

12 June 2016

Bob Blog 12 June 2016

WEATHERGRAM
YOTREPS
Issued 12 June 2016

Bob McDavitt's ideas for sailing around the South Pacific.
Disclaimer: Weather is a mix of pattern and chaos; these ideas are from the
patterned world.

Just a quick blog this evening, it's been a long day here.
Tropics are quiet at present. India's monsoon seems to be advancing, but is
around 5 to 10 days "late".
The advance of the 2016 Monsoon may be seen at
www.imd.gov.in/pages/monsoon_main.php
Last week's rain has been heaviest in Myanmar/Burma, as seen at
trmm.gsfc.nasa.gov/trmm_rain/Events/big_global_accumlation.gif .

WEATHER ZONES
SPCZ=South Pacific Convergence zone.
SPCZ is expected to remain draped from PNG across to the Tuvalu/Tokelau area,
with a touch over Northern Cooks. The cloud band that is now moving off to east
of Tonga is associated with a weak trough still south of Fiji. This is expected
to travel east (upper westerly winds) like an "easterly wave" and reach Southern
Cooks by end of this week.

STR= Sub-tropical Ridge
STR is near 35. The HIGH over southeast Australia this weekend looks intense
with central pressure over 1038, but is expected to fade as it tries to move
into Tasman Sea, and end of the week may be just over1028 over northern NZ. A
squash zone is likely over southern Coral Sea between this High and that trough
southeast of Fiji.

Voyage Outlooks:
Travelling to Marquesas:
Winds near Isla Isabela are expected to be light southerly this week, possibly
reaching 10 knots on local Thu/Fri. May as well get best from the current by
going to 5S then west to 127W and then direct. And around Marquesas Islands
expect moderate east to NE winds.

Tahiti to the west
There is currently a squash zone over Tahiti area, and this should ease local
Sunday/Monday so that departure may be Ok local Tuesday (giving seas a day to
settle down). Since the SPCZ is active over its northern region, this suggests a
voyage to Palmerston/Niue may be squall free, and a voyage to Suwarrow may
encounter squalls.

Between NZ and the tropics
Conditions are good to go from Monday morning once a passing front has brought a
southerly change to Northland area. The HIGH that is following this front is
expected to weaken slowly as it travels across the Tasman Sea and should sustain
a SSE/Se 20 knot flow to Vanuatu/Fiji. The path to Tonga may need to deviate
around a trough in order to avoid a calm area. The path to Noumea may encounter
a squash zone associated with the HIGH.

The trough that follows that HIGH is expected to arrive in Tasman Sea around
Sat/Sun 18/19 June. This may trigger a Low to deepen east of Brisbane early next
week, and LOW should travel southeast towards NZ. Associated E/NE winds and
trough may reach New Caledonia Sun19/Mon 20 June and weaken the winds over
Vanuatu. This complicated voyages in those directions.

Between Australia and New Caledonia
Squash Zone between High and New Caledonia from Monday to Thursday.
Then a trough is likely offshore Brisbane on Friday to Sunday.
Better to go next week.

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See my yotpak at boatbooks.co.nz/weather.html for terms used.
See my website http://www.metbob.com for information on tailor-made voyage
forecasts-
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