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Bob McDavitt's ideas for sailing weather around the South pacific

14 December 2016

TD04F is deepening ....

Fiji Met are saying there is a moderate chance that the Low to NW of Fiji will earn a name as a tropical cyclone by Saturday:

See http://www.met.gov.fj/aifs_prods/20036.txt

Tropical Disturbance Summary For area Equator to 25S, 160E to 120W
ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Dec 140848 UTC.
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 04F [‑‑1004HPA] ANALYSED NEAR 14.5S 175.5E AT
140600UTC SLOW MOVING. POSITION POOR BASED ON HIMAWARI IR IMAGERY AND
PERIPHERAL SURFACE OBSERVATION. SST AROUND 30 DEGRESS CELCIUS.
CONVECTION PERSISTENT IN THE PAST 24 HOURS. SYSTEM LIES UNDER A UPPER
DIFFLUENT REGION IN A LOW SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. CYCLONIC CIRCULATION
EXTENDS OVER TO 700HPA.
GLOBAL MODELS HAVE PICKED UP THE SYSTEM WITH SOUTHEAST MOVEMENT AND
GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION.
THE POTENTIAL FOR THIS SYSTEM TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN
THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS IS MODERATE.
NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ANALYSED OR FORECAST IN THE
AREA.

Or from http://www.met.gov.fj/aifs_prods/20032.txt

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A2 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Dec 150807 UTC.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TD04F CENTRE 1002HPA WAS ANALYSED NEAR 14.2S
174.8E AT 141800UTC. POSITION POOR BASED ON HIMAWARI-8 IR IMAGERY AND
PERIPHERAL SURFACE REPORTS. DEPRESSION SLOW MOVING. MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE
AVERAGE WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ESTIMATED AT ABOUT 25 KNOTS.


DEEP CONVECTION REMAINS PERSISTENT. ORGANISATION HAS ALSO IMPROVED
PAST 24 HOURS. OUTFLOW GOOD TO SOUTH DUE TO SUBTROPICAL JET TO SOUTH
OF SYSTEM. SST AROUND 29 DEGREE. SYSTEM LIES UNDER A MODERATE UPPER
DIFFLUENT REGION IN A LOW SHEAR ENVIRONMENT. DVORAK ANALYSIS BASED
0.3 WRAP YIELDS DT=1.5, MET AND PT AGREE. FT BASED ON DT. THUS
YIELDING, T1.5/1.5/D0.5/24HRS.

GLOBAL MODELS HAVE PICKED UP THE SYSTEM AND SLOWLY MOVE IT SOUTHWARDS
WITH GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION.

FORECASTS :
AT 12 HRS VALID AT 150600 UTC 14.5S 174.5E MOV SW AT 02KT WITH 25KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 24 HRS VALID AT 151800 UTC 15.1S 175.0E MOV SE AT 04KT WITH 30KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE.

OUTLOOK:
AT 36 HRS VALID AT 160600 UTC 15.8S 175.5E MOV SE AT 04KT WITH 35KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 48 HRS VALID AT 161800 UTC 16.5S 175.9E MOV SSE AT 04KT WITH 40KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE.

THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON TD04F WILL BE ISSUED AROUND
150200UTC.

Or see the map at http://www.met.gov.fj/aifs_prods/65661.html
bob@metbob.com

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