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Bob McDavitt's ideas for sailing weather around the South pacific

22 December 2017

Bob Blog 23 Dec 2017

If you are in the Fiji/Tonga area over the next few days then keep an eye on TD04F

 

at   www.met.gov.fj/aifs_prods/20036.txt

 

>>>>>>>>>>> 

 

Tropical Disturbance Summary For area Equator to 25S, 160E to 120W

ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Dec 220836 UTC.

 

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TD04F [1000HPA] WAS ANALYSED NEAR 16.3S 173.5E AT

220600UTC. TD04F MOVING SOUTH-SOUTHEAST 10 KNOTS. POSITION POOR BASED

ON HIMAWARI-8 EIR SATELLITE IMAGERY AND PERIPHERAL SURFACE

OBSERVATIONS.

 

CONVECTION REMAINS PERSISTENT OVER SUPPOSED LLCC. ORGANISATION

REMAINS POOR. THE SYSTEM LIES SOUTH OF AN UPPER RIDGE IN A LOW

SHEARED ENVIRONMENT WITH GOOD OUTFLOW. CYCLONIC CIRCULATIONS EXTENDS

UPTO 700HPA. SST AROUND 29 DEGREES CELSIUS.

 

GLOBAL MODELS HAVE PICKED UP THE SYSTEM  AND SLOWLY MOVE IT

SOUTHEASTWARDS WITH SLIGHT INTENSIFICATION.

 

POTENTIAL FOR THIS SYSTEM TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE

NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS IS LOW TO MODERATE.

 

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