Bob McDavitt's ideas for sailing weather around the South pacific

28 January 2018

Bob Blog 28 Jan 2018= 1924+94



Compiled Sun 28 January 2018


Bob McDavitt’s ideas for sailing around the South Pacific.

Disclaimer: Weather is a mix of pattern and chaos; these ideas are from the patterned world.

Shorter than normal edition tonight as I’ve been helping my mum celebrate her 94th Birthday. Yeah!



There is an MJO period of expected extra convection traveling east across northern Australia into Coral sea area this week and next week, and this is raising the potential for Tropical Low development to HIGH over next few weeks.

There is a high chance that on Monday TD 06F/08P (now 994hPa near 17S 161E or about 450 n miles northwest of New Caledonia) may develop into a named Topical cyclone— It seems to be moving SSE maybe SE at present and is expected to travel south into the Tasman Sea and weaken and finally cross southern/central NZ on Thursday and Friday mainly as a real-wet rain depression and mainly rain for the southern lakes (where it is needed), and still with some wind.

Latest discussion about this feature is available at


In the Indian Ocean TC CEBILE is traveling west to southwestwards near Diego Garcia,


Looking at the weekly rain maps, at, we can see that the main convective rain over the past week has shifted from the equatorial Indian Ocean to the northern Australia and Coral Sea region.



SPCZ=South Pacific Convergence zone.

The SPCZ is active in the Coral to Tasman Seas with TD 06F/08P.

It is also increasing active in the zone from northern Vanuatu to Rotuma (maybe not Fiji) to northern Tonga to Niue, with more tropical lows likely.

Tropical accumulated rainfall for next week may be een at


Subtropical ridge (STR)

HIGH to east of NZ o Monday should travel steadily east along 40S off to the east this week,

Next High is expected to travel from Aussie Bight to south of Tasmania along 48South on Sat/Sun 3/4 Feb.


Around Tasman Sea

The main factor this week is to avoid the wind and rain of TD 06F/08P. Avoid


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