Bob Blog 07 July 2019

WEATHERGRAM

YOTREPS

Compiled Sun 07 July 2019

Bob McDavitt’s ideas for sailing around the South Pacific.

Disclaimer: Weather is a mix of pattern and chaos; these ideas are from the patterned world.

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THE TROPICS

The latest cyclone activity report is at tropic.ssec.wisc.edu and TCFP tropical Cyclone Formation Potential at www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/TCFP/index.html

TC BARBARA appeared in the North Pacific,  weakening as it approached the south of Hawaii. There is potential for another tropical system COSME to develop after and behind Barbara.

 

WEATHER ZONES

SPCZ=South Pacific Convergence zone.

The SPCZ should stay over Solomons to northern Vanuatu to Fiji, with a small convergence zone north of Samoa.

There is likely to be a weak passing trough (1012hPa) reaching Niue around local Thursday and going on to Rarotonga by local Friday/Saturday. 

   

   Subtropical ridge (STR)

The big fat high and its squash zone have finally eased away.

There is a High 1030 in Tasman Sea on Monday, and this is expected to weaken below 1020 and travel east along 30S. 

 

Tasman Sea /NZ/Aus   

With a ridge along 30S, OK this week for sailing from New Cal to Australia and not the  other way.

Weak trough is expected to cross NZ mid wee, and a bigger trough on Friday night/Saturday, and a bigger again trough on Sunday, followed by disturbed SW flow early next week.

Departures from NZ to tropics are OK on Monday and Tuesday, A Wednesday or later departure is likely to encounter a passing trough. 

 

Tahiti to Tonga

OK to depart next few days. Anticipate a weak passing trough 1012 near Niue by local Thursday.

 

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