Bob Blog 4 Aug 2019

WEATHERGRAM

YOTREPS

Compiled Sun 04 August 2019

 

Bob McDavitt’s ideas for sailing around the South Pacific.

Disclaimer: Weather is a mix of pattern and chaos; these ideas are from the patterned world.

 

JUNE REVIEW

Sea Surface temperature anomalies as at start of August may be seen at www.weatherzone.com.au/climate/indicator_sst.jsp?lt=global&lc=global&c=ssta

The main pattern changes are the ribbon of cooler than normal sea around the Galapagos. There is also a return to near normal in the Tasman Sea and a return to near normal off western Australia (an easing of the Positive Indian Dipole

To see how the annual weather cycle and the seasons are working out, we can check the average isobar maps for past 30 days and their anomaly from www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/map/images/fnl/slp_30b.fnl.html

The subtropical ridge is much the same as last month. The monsoonal trough has deepened and shifted north over Asia.

Zooming into the NZ area, and comparing monthly anomalies for end of last month with now, shows that the subtropical ridge STR is slightly north of where it was last month. The anomalous trough over NZ is closer to the mainland than last month,

 

THE TROPICS

The latest cyclone activity report is at tropic.ssec.wisc.edu and TCFP tropical Cyclone Formation Potential at www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/TCFP/index.html

It’s been a busy week in the Pacific and still is with ERICK, FLOSSIE and now GIL travelling west towards Hawaii. Also FRANCISCO near Japan.

There are areas of potential development in the China Sea, near Bangla Desh, and now also in the Atlantic. The Cyclone Season is heating up.

WEATHER ZONES

SPCZ=South Pacific Convergence zone.

The SPCZ stay over Solomons and stretch across norther Vanuatu o the Fiji /Samoa area.

Passing trough over the Gambier Islands on local Sunday/Monday 1014hPa.

 

Subtropical ridge (STR)

SAM went negative last week as expected allowing the cool air of the Southern Ocean to spread into the Tasman Sea/ NZ area with big swells. As a precursor for this the STR went north of NZ. The next High is now in the Tasman Sea and is expected to travel NE on Monday and then along 25 to 30s, being NE of NZ on Wednesday.

 

A weaker ridge is expected to travel across south Tasman on Thu and the South Island (only) on Friday.

 

Tasman Sea /NZ/Aus

Disturbed westerlies for western NZ pretty much for the whole week, but easing winds on Tuesday/Wednesday offer an opportunity for v

Looks Ok for Noumea to South Port early this week, but not Ok after around Thursday.

 

Tahiti to Tonga :Looks good to go this week with trade winds.

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If you would like more detail for your voyage, then check metbob.com to see what I offer.

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Contact is bob@metbob.com or txt 6427 7762212

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