bob Blog 27 Oct

WEATHERGRAM

YOTREPS

 

Compiled Sun 27 October 2019

Bob McDavitt’s ideas for sailing around the South Pacific.

Disclaimer: Weather is a mix of pattern and chaos; these ideas are from the patterned world.

 

THE TROPICS

The latest cyclone activity report is at tropic.ssec.wisc.edu and TCFP tropical Cyclone Formation Potential at www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/TCFP/index.html

At present there are two named storms PABLO and KYARR

 

WEATHER ZONES

SPCZ

The SPCZ is expected to stretch from PNG to north of Vanuatu with another zone stretching from Samoa area to Sothern Cooks.

Weak Passing trough over Fiji/Tonga on local Wednesday and Niue/ Southern Cooks area on local Wednesday (one day later) area on local Tuesday, Cooks on Wednesday and French Polynesia on local Thursday.

 

Subtropical ridge (STR)

HIGH is expected to travel east along 30S from Tasman Sea to East of NZ from Wednesday to Sunday this week.

 

Tasman Sea /NZ/Aus

Weak trough is expected to cross NZ on Monday followed by SW flow on Tuesday and Wednesday and then a large HIGH is expected to travel from Tasman Sea across NZ from Thu 31 Oct to Tue 5 Nov = good days for arrival in NZ.

  After that the next trough is now due on 6/7 Nov - probably worth avoiding.

Then a NW flow, OK for arrival, for 8/9 Nov.

 

For Noumea to Aus looks Ok, with HIGH in Tasma Sea. No passing troughs to avoid.

 

Tahiti to Tonga

The passing trough is likely to reach Southern Cooks area by local Wednesday and then develop a Low just south of the Cooks on Thursday and this lo should the deepen and go south or SSE. Avoid.

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If you would like more detail for your voyage, then check metbob.com to see what I offer.

Or Facebook at /www.facebook.com/metbobnz/

Weathergram with graphics is at metbob.wordpress.com (subscribe/unsubscribe at bottom).

Weathergram archive (with translator) is at weathergram.blogspot.co.nz.

Contact is bob@metbob.com or txt 6427 7762212

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Bob Blog 20 oct

WEATHERGRAM

YOTREPS

 

Compiled Sun 20 October 2019

Bob McDavitt’s ideas for sailing around the South Pacific.

Disclaimer: Weather is a mix of pattern and chaos; these ideas are from the patterned world.

 

THE TROPICS

The latest cyclone activity report is at tropic.ssec.wisc.edu and TCFP tropical Cyclone Formation Potential at www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/TCFP/index.html

At present there are two named storms in the Northwest Pacific Ocean NEOGURI and BUALOI

 

WEATHER ZONES

SPCZ=South Pacific Convergence zone.

The SPCZ is expected to stretch from PNG to north of Vanuatu and north of Fiji, maybe touching Samoa.

Passing trough over Niue area on local Tuesday, Cooks on Wednesday and French Polynesia later in the week.

 

Subtropical ridge (STR)

HIGH is expected to travel east along 30S from Tasman Sea to East of NZ from Wednesday to Sunday this week.

 

Tasman Sea /NZ/Aus

Low is expected to form over central NZ on Tuesday night and travel on Wednesday to east of NZ followed by a SW flow on Thursday and then a ridge on Friday. Next trof for northern NZ (no good for arrival in NZ) is due on 4 November.

As for tropics to NZ this week: Time your voyage to run south when High travels east (wed to sat), before that the trip has southerly winds which are Ok for getting west, but not south.

For Noumea to Aus looks Ok, but avoid arriving on coast from around Brisbane southwards on Saturday afternoon 26 oct due passing trough. This trough should weaken as it moves across Tasman, reaching New Caledonia by following Tuesday.

 

Tahiti to Tonga

Mainly trade winds this week but for a passing trough at some stage during the week, followed by SW/SSE winds .

 

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If you would like more detail for your voyage, then check metbob.com to see what I offer.

Or Facebook at /www.facebook.com/metbobnz/

Weathergram with graphics is at metbob.wordpress.com (subscribe/unsubscribe at bottom).

Weathergram archive (with translator) is at weathergram.blogspot.co.nz.

Contact is bob@metbob.com or txt 6427 7762212

>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> 

 

 

Bob Blog 13 Oct

WEATHERGRAM

YOTREPS

 

Compiled Sun 13 October 2019

Bob McDavitt’s ideas for sailing around the South Pacific.

Disclaimer: Weather is a mix of pattern and chaos; these ideas are from the patterned world.

 

Coming cyclone Season Outlook

 

NIWA and MetService NZ have published their combined outlook for the coming South Pacific Cyclone season and the full details are at :

 

https://www.niwa.co.nz/climate/southwest-pacific-tropical-cyclone-outlook/southwest-pacific-tropical-cyclone-outlook-october-2019

 

Briefly:

A slightly more active than normal season with 9 to 12 named storms expected.

Extra activity is expected east of the dateline (Samoa/Tonga / Niue/ Southern Cooks) especially for Feb -April 2020.

In previous similar (“analogue”) years there have been some CAT 5 storms, so the indications are this season cyclones may be more intense than normal. But next three months are expected to be close to normal, and the season starts at low risk.

 

THE TROPICS

The latest cyclone activity report is at tropic.ssec.wisc.edu and TCFP tropical Cyclone Formation Potential at www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/TCFP/index.html

At present there are three named storms active cyclone HAGISIS off Japan, EMA in Mid-North-Pacific and MELISSA in northern north Atlantic.

HAGIBIS as the largest and most active storm Japan has had in decades and caused cancellation of some Rugby world cup games , and the practice session for F1. .

 

WEATHER ZONES

SPCZ=South Pacific Convergence zone.

The SPCZ is rather weak wet of the dateline this week, but active between Samoa and noticeable between Suwarrow and Tahiti.

Passing trough over Fiji/Tonga area on Monday /Tuesday

 

Subtropical ridge (STR)

The STR remains near 20S in the NZ area .

HIGH to E of NZ on Monday moves off to the east.

Next HIGH starts forming in Tasman Sea on Mon/Tue/Wed and travels east along 30S from Thursday/Friday/Sat to east of NZ, leaving a tongue of ridge behind it. This brings a period of light winds north of NZ>.

 

Tasman Sea /NZ/Aus

Low deepening to 986 hPa as it travels southeast over northern NZ on Mon/Tue , moving east of NZ and starting to weaken on Wednesday.

Brief ridge on Thursday then next trough on Fri/Sat.

As for tropics to NZ this week: light winds from that High/ridge this week, large 3m+ swells as far north as 25S on Wed, and avoid arriving in NZ around 24 October. Remember that Oct 25 is a holiday in NZ.

For Noumea to Aus looks Ok after westerly winds swing to S/SE near New Caledonia on Monday.

 

Tahiti to Tonga

Mainly trade winds this week but passing trough over Tonga on Tuesday with showers.

 

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If you would like more detail for your voyage, then check metbob.com to see what I offer.

Or Facebook at /www.facebook.com/metbobnz/

Weathergram with graphics is at metbob.wordpress.com (subscribe/unsubscribe at bottom).

Weathergram archive (with translator) is at weathergram.blogspot.co.nz.

Contact is bob@metbob.com or txt 6427 7762212

>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> 

 

Bob Blog 6 Oct 2019

WEATHERGRAM

YOTREPS

 

Compiled Sun 29 September 2019

Bob McDavitt’s ideas for sailing around the South Pacific.

Disclaimer: Weather is a mix of pattern and chaos; these ideas are from the patterned world.

 

REVIEW OF THE LAST MONTH

Sea Surface temperature anomalies as at end of August and start of October may be seen at www.weatherzone.com.au/climate/indicator_sst.jsp?lt=global&lc=global&c=ssta

 

The peak heat of the northern summer/autumn has gone now and sea temperatures are relaxing and easing towards normal, but still slightly above,

 

In the Southern hemisphere there’s a large zone of cooler sea off the west of South America, and temperatures between Queensland and Northern NZ, and a return to normal temperature off the west of Australia.

 

To see how the annual weather cycle and the seasons are working out, we can check the average isobar maps for past 30 days and their anomaly from www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/map/images/fnl/slp_30b.fnl.html

 

The southern subtropical ridge is much the same as last month. It is much stronger off to west of South American, and slightly stronger in the Tasman sea. . The monsoonal trough is a little further east and weaker.

 

Zooming into the NZ area, and comparing monthly anomalies for end of last month with now, shows that the subtropical ridge STR is in much the same place but slightly stronger than a month ago. There is still a SW flow over NZ, but it’s weaker than it was.

 

THE TROPICS

The latest cyclone activity report is at tropic.ssec.wisc.edu and TCFP tropical Cyclone Formation Potential at www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/TCFP/index.html

At present there is one active cyclone HAGISIS off Japan and expected to skim along Japan East coast.

Looks like we are having a lull in the cyclone season.

 

 

WEATHER ZONES

SPCZ=South Pacific Convergence zone.

The SPCZ is expected to visit Fiji on Monday and the Tonga /Minerva area on Tuesday, then return north to Solomons to Tokelau stretch from Solomon Islands to Tuvalu /Tokelau, similar to last week.

Weak upper trough 1012 over Tahiti on Wednesday with showers.

 

Subtropical ridge (STR)

The STR has retreated to 30S around NZ

HIGH to NE of NZ on Monday stalling and extending south near 170W/south of Southern Cooks on Tuesday to Thursday

Next HIGH is in Southern Ocean and expected to travel east along 50S to south of NZ on weekend 12/13Oct. 6,

 

Tasman Sea /NZ/Aus

Intense Low deepening in central Tasman Sea on Tuesday/Wednesday and crossing South Island on Thursday. Another trough/Low crossing northern NZ on Friday

Maybe another Low in northern Tasman Sea / Northern NZ early next week, not sure yet.

As for tropics to NZ this week, wait until Wednesday or latter for departure. Avoid arriving early next week (possible low)

For Noumea to Aus or vice versa: complicated thus week by passing trough.

 

Tahiti to Tonga

The passing upper trough 1016hpa+ hPa may bring some showers.

Trade winds expected this week, a good week to go west.

 

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If you would like more detail for your voyage, then check metbob.com to see what I offer.

Or Facebook at /www.facebook.com/metbobnz/

Weathergram with graphics is at metbob.wordpress.com (subscribe/unsubscribe at bottom).

Weathergram archive (with translator) is at weathergram.blogspot.co.nz.

Contact is bob@metbob.com or txt 6427 7762212

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