Bob Blog 16 Aug

Bob McDavitt’s ideas for sailing around the South Pacific.

Disclaimer: Weather is a mix of pattern and chaos; these ideas are from the patterned world.

Compiled Sun 16 Aug 2020

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The Tropics

The latest cyclone activity report is at tropic.ssec.wisc.edu and Tropical Cyclone Potential is from www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/TCFP/index.html

There are two active storms in the Atlantic now staying offshore, and a tropical depression in the North Pacific at present, and there are several areas of high potential for formation., especially west of central America.

 

SPCZ=South Pacific Convergence zone.

SPCZ is weak and mainly over Solomon island to Vanuatu this week, but there is o a convergence zone over Tuvalu and Tokelau /Samoa extending along 10S to near Northern Cooks.

Passing trough over New Cal on Monday, Fiji local Tuesday, Tonga local then it goes to southeast. 

 

Subtropical ridge (STR)

HIGH 1030hPa over NZ at present is expected to travel east along 35S and build to 1040hP near 150W by mid-week, with a squash zone of enhanced trade winds along 25S with swells up to 4m from 145W to 155W.

 

Tasman troughs

Low 998hPa east of Bass Strait tonight goes south of NZ on Wed. Associated front crosses NZ on Wed, preceded by strong NE winds Tue, and is expected on Thu to develop a Low below 999hPa off east coast of NI that goes South. Another Low 986 hPa expected in Tasman Sea around d 45S on Thurs passing south of NZ on Friday. These lows give Tasman/NZ a westerly flow from Wed to the weekend.

 

From Panama: ITCZ 10N to 7N, NW winds in Panama for starters until Tues then SW winds, W/SW winds from 7N 80W to 94W.

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