Bob's Blog 20 May

Bob McDavitt’s ideas for sailing around the South Pacific.

Disclaimer: Weather is a mix of pattern and chaos; these ideas are from the patterned world.

Compiled Sun 20 Sep 2020

 

LA Nina update

The main Met sites have confirmed that in the past week we have indeed started a new La Nina episode. It is expected to be a weak one, peaking around December and fading by March 2021. Should have a moderating effect on the number of cyclones, with the main ones forming WEST of 180.

 

Spring equinox and Daylight saving

The equinox is at 0130UTC on 22 September.

NZ switches to daylight time at 2am Sunday 27 Sep

In Australia Daylight saving is observed in New South Wales, Victoria, South Australia , Tasmania. Australia Capital Territory, and Norfolk Island

It starts on 2am on first Sunday of October.

Fiji starts 2am 8 Nov

French Polynesia doesn’t have daylight savings

Tonga is no longer (since 2017) having Daylight saving

 

The Tropics

The latest cyclone activity report is at tropic.ssec.wisc.edu and Tropical Cyclone Potential is from www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/TCFP/index.html

Three Cyclones in the North Atlantic, TEDDY and WILFRED (+ Paulette’s remains north of 30 north, not shown ). But during the past week there were up to 7 systems worth watching. BETA in Gulf of Mexico--- so we have switched to the Greek Alphabet for names. NOUL is near Bangladesh. Also a high potential for development off west Mexico coast. And a rare ‘Medicane’ in Greece in the Mediterranean Sea with at least two fatalities, see https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-54219180

WEATHER ZONES

SPCZ=South Pacific Convergence zone.

SPCZ is moderate and slightly north of normal from Solomon Islands to North of Vanuatu to Tuvalu /Samoa.

Passing trough over Southern Cooks on local Tuesday/Wednesday.

 

Subtropical ridge (STR)

HIGH 1028hPa over NZ moving east along 40S, but leaves a lingering ridge over North Island on Monday that may allow a new HIGH 1020pa to travel east along 30S to E of NZ from Tues to Sat.

 

Tasman troughs

Passing trough over NZ on Tuesday.

Low forming east of Tasmania on Thursday and crossing southern NZ on Friday at around 995hPa.

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Weathergram archive (with translator) is at weathergram.blogspot.co.nz.

Contact is bob@metbob.com or txt 6427 7762212

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