Bob Blog 4 July

Bob McDavitt's ideas for sailing around the South Pacific.
Disclaimer: Weather is a mix of pattern and chaos; these ideas are from the
patterned world.
Compiled Sunday 04 July

REVIEW OF THE LAST MONTH (June 2021)
The Sea surface temperatures are much as last month, but for a significant
warming around Europe and Japan. The warm seas around Japan are part of the
cause of their recent landslides.
The northern subtropical ridge has slightly intensified in the Atlantic and
moved onto Europe but has weakened elsewhere and retreated off Canada. In
the southern hemisphere the subtropical ridge has noticeably intensified,
especially over NZ, and extended both north and south. Pressures have
dropped over northern India in line with the Indian monsoon.
The belt of higher-than-normal pressure that stretched from Russia to
eastern Canada last month has gone. A new belt-of-higher-pressure now
extends from South Indian Ocean across NZ to southern South America.

The Canadian Heat wave
A good explanation of why NW America got so hot in the last week of June is
given at www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-57665715

Zooming into the NZ area
The subtropical ridge has extended northwards and southwards and intensified
to over 1020 over NZ. This brought a dry June to NZ but for a polar blast
early last week.

TROPICS
ELSA is over Cuba and expected to move over florid.
There are moderate zones of potential development off the southwest of
Mexico and around the Philippines.

WEATHER ZONES
SPCZ=South Pacific Convergence zone.
The SPCZ is expected to be about average stretching from Solomon Islands to
Samoa to Southern Cooks.
Two passing troughs for the South Pacific this week. The first one has
already got east of Niue and should travel east across Southern Cooks by
local Tuesday. The second trough is expected to reach New Caledonia on local
Tuesday and travel east over Tonga on local Thursday and reaching Tahiti on
local Sunday 11 July

HIGH 1036 over NZ tonight is expected to travel east along 40 to 45S.
FRONT in mid-Tasman Sea is expected to follow the HIGH and cross NZ on local
Tuesday followed by a S to southerly flow on Wednesday and Thursday.
Next HIGH is expected to move off New South Wales into the Tasman Sea on
Thursday and travel east over northern NZ on Saturday, followed by a LOW
deepening in that Tasman Sea on Sunday. This recurring Ridge-Trough pattern
is typical for winter.
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If you would like more detail for your voyage, then check metbob.com to see
what I offer.
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at bottom).
Weathergram archive (with translator) is at weathergram.blogspot.co.nz.
Contact is bob@metbob.com or txt 64277762212
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