Bob Blog 9 April

Bob McDavitt's ideas for sailing around the South Pacific.
Disclaimer: Weather is a mix of pattern and chaos; these ideas are from the
patterned world.
Compiled Sunday 9 April 2023

Climate change
With the help of Chatgpt (which did the data search for me) I was able to
quickly find the increasing threat of weather disasters in a few graphs.
The main agency studying weather risk seems to be UNDRR the UN office for
Disaster Risk Reduction
Their Global Assessment report GAM 2022 reports the increasing risk from
EM-DATA + CRED Database s
Passing comments is made that EM DAT data showed a large increase around
1990 due to the impact of the Internet. Note that in the past three years
the number of extreme temperature events have actually declined.these were
La Nina years.
This week the UNDRR have published their "Midterm review of the Sendal
Framework 2015-2030" with some interesting mortality graphs
These deaths are from weather +quake +Tsunami +volcano but do NOT include
the Covid 19 pandemic.
The peak in 2004 was from the Indian Ocean tsunami which killed at least
225,000 people across a dozen countries2008 was from Cyclone Nargis which
killed more than 138,000 in Myanmar. Generally, mortality is steady but for
those odd peaks but with a slight decreasing trend in spite of the
increasing number of disasters. This slight-decrease is due to improvements
in early warning systems, better disaster preparedness and response, and
increased access to healthcare. The slight increase in 2019 to 2022 in the
"per 100,000" graph is an artifact of the huge jump in excess mortality
around most of the world (not in New Zealand thanks to the team of 5
million) during the pandemic.

All this has been summed up in an article on Vox
www.vox.com/23150467/natural-disaster-climate-change-early-warning-hurricane
-wildfire

TROPICS
South Pacific Convergence Zone

The SPCZ is intensifying around PNG and may form a tropical low there late
in the week. It is of average intensity across northern Vanuatu to Samoa to
Tuamotu Island
A trough is expected to form in the Coral Sea on Monday and Tuesday then
cross New Caledonia mid-week and then go southeast past the south of Fiji
and Tonga. Avoid.

HIGHS and LOWS
Zonal traffic this week.
The Low that side-swiped norther NZ on Saturday in now east of the North
Island and expected to travel off to the east along 35S, pushing a High H1
that is south of Tahiti off to the east.
Broad multi-centred trough L2 now in the Tasman Sea with an active warm
front crossing the North Island tonight. L2 should finally cross central New
Zealand mid-week and then move off to the east.
The following High H2 is well to the south near 50S and expected to head
northeast towards Chatham Islands at end of the week.
By then Low L3 is expected to deepen over Lord Howe Island around Friday and
next weekend there should be a squash zone of NE winds from Tonga to New
Zealand between H2 and L3. AVOID.

Panama to Marquesas: Still getting northerly winds at Panama for departure.
But doldrums between 5N and 5S this week.

>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
If you would like more detail for your voyage, then check metbob.com to see
what I offer.
Or Facebook at /www.facebook.com/metbobnz/
Weathergram with graphics is at metbob.wordpress.com (subscribe/unsubscribe
at bottom).
Weathergram archive (with translator) is at weathergram.blogspot.co.nz.
Contact is bob@metbob.com or txt 64 277762212
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>