Bob Blog 14 May

Bob McDavitt's ideas for sailing around the South Pacific.
Disclaimer: Weather is a mix of pattern and chaos; these ideas are from the
patterned world.

Compiled Sunday 14 May 2023

THE AUTUMN FLUSH

When a cold showery southerly outbreak rattles the windows in Auckland and
Northland in May, tons of yachts take that as their signa and head off for
the tropics.

1. There has been a blocking High east of NZ
2. Then along come s a kicker of a Low
3. The SW flow and incoming High that follow is "just right" for sailing
from NZ to the tropics.

The New Zealand weather clusters the yachts together and this makes an
interesting spectacle on the marine traffic maps:
There is also the rush of yachts from the east, lighting up the entire South
Pacific
It may be only 5% or so of the traffic on the planet, but these pink yachts
do stand out.

Welcome to the south Pacific and its wondrous weather systems.

TROPICS
Cyclone MOCHA is making landfall on the Bangladesh and Myanmar coasts
tonight.
And a tropical depression is likely to form on the Southern Indian Ocean
this week.
The MJO , a burst of extra energy in the tropics, is travelling from North
Australia into the Pacific, and this MIGHT help trigger a tropical
disturbance near Guam late this week.

WEATHER ZONES
The South Pacific Convergence zone is expected to do some rebuilding over
the Coral Sea to Fiji area this week. There is also a convergence zone
combined with a squash zone just south of Tahiti, but this is weakening.
A busy week for Tasman troughs.
High H1 tonight in the Tasman sea is expected to travel NE then east and
fade.
Low L1 is forming east of NZ tonight and expected to travel northeast and
weaken.
Low L2 and its front and cold air ate expected to cross Tasmania on
Monday/Tuesday and stall over southern NZ on Wednesday.
Low L3 is the main one this week and should start just as a trough off the
Queensland coast on Tuesday then deepen into a low and travel towards
central NZ, maybe reaching 980 off the Westland coast on Friday.
Its associated tropical trough should cross New Caledonia on Thursday and
Fiji to Minerva on Friday/Saturday.
After next weekend when L3 moves off to the east, the following SW flow and
incoming High make a good pattern for sailing from NZ to the tropics.
Panama to Marquesas: maybe a northerly flow in the Panama gulf from mod
week, but SW winds now reach to around 1north.

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If you would like more details about your voyage, then check metbob.com to
see what I offer.
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