Bob Blog 16 July

Bob McDavitt's ideas for sailing around the South Pacific.
Disclaimer: Weather is a mix of pattern and chaos; these ideas are from the
patterned world.
Compiled Sunday 16 July 2023

The incoming El Nino and New Zealand weather by Dr Kevin Trenberth
See this link
theconversation.com/el-nino-combined-with-global-warming-means-big-changes-f
or-new-zealands-weather-207493


TROPICS
Things are getting busy in the tropics as is typical in July, with DON in
the North Atlantic, CALVIN in the North Pacific and TALIM in the China Sea.
The MJO, a burst of extra energy in the tropics, is on the move and expected
to visit the Western pacific in a few weeks.

WEATHER ZONES
The Tropics
The South Pacific Convergence zone is expected to extend from Coral Sea to
Fiji and to combine with a jetstream aloft stretching its clouds to southern
Tonga.
A convergence zone/Front now over the Southern Cooks is expected to travel
north onto Tahiti by local Wednesday and Tuamotu Islands around local
Thursday followed by a change to moderate southerly winds.
An active LOW L3 and trough is expected to form over Fiji by local Thursday
and then go SE and reach Rarotonga on local Friday preceded by strong NE
winds, accompanied by rain, and followed by westerly winds. Avoid.
If travelling from Tahiti to Tonga this week, then consider talking the
northern route via Suwarrow.

HIGHS and LOWS
Low L1 near Chatham Islands tonight is travelling steadily off to the ENE
and is expected to deepen to around 990 followed by a burst of southerly
swell extending as far as 14S.
HIGH H1 in central Tasman Sea should travel east along 30S crossing
Northland on local Tuesday.
Low L2 is expected to come from the Southern Ocean and cross NZ on Wednesday
and Thursday deepening to below 1000 around Northland on Friday. It is
followed by a bust of SW wind and swell getting as far as 15S by the
weekend. Avoid.

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