Bobgram 28 July

Bob McDavitt's ideas for sailing around the South Pacific.
Disclaimer: Weather is a mix of pattern and chaos; these ideas are
from the patterned world.
Compiled Sunday 28 July2024

THE CLIMATE DRIVERS
We are in ENSO neutral territory
The atmospheric SOI values are near zero

As shown in data from www.longpaddock.qld.gov.au/soi/

The Ocean:
The parameter used from the ocean is based on the sea surface
temperatures in the equatorial eastern Pacific and called the NINO 3.4
SST anomaly.
Recent forecasts show that the Sea surface temperature anomalies in
the Nino 3.4 area may might cool a little in the next six months,
possibly enough to be associated with a brief LA NINA event in OCTOBER
and then relaxes again
And so this El Nino may soon start shifting focus more to the east.
The Indian Ocean has a climate driver called the IOD or Indian ocean
Dipole , and this is expected t to be positive but relaxing over the
next few months (as seen at bom.gov.au/climate)
The Southern Ocean has a climate driver called SAM or the Southern
Annular Mode which was recently
And in the tropics the MJO is expected to have a quiet month in August

So, in summary, the climate drivers are not giving us any useful
directions over the next few months.

The main thing in the driving seat is that Sea Surface temperatures
around the world are at an all-time high, so if a mechanism appears
that can convert this extra energy into wind and rain then we can
expect record breaking stuff, but we don't know where yet.

TROPICS
Torrents from the outer bands of Typhoon Gaemi left at least 22 people
dead in severe flooding in the Philippines, which turned Manila
streets into rivers. The storm then battered Taiwan for two days,
killing three people and sinking a freighter offshore.

Tropical Storm Prapiroon drenched parts of South China and northern
Vietnam.

WEATHER ZONES
The South Pacific Convergence zone is sitting over the northern Coral
Sea and extends a finger from Solomon Islands to Tokelau. Westerly
winds between Niue and Tahiti are expected to turn Southerly in the
next few days with southerly swells over 3m reaching a peak around
Wednesday. Avoid. After that it should be OK to sail westwards.

HIGHS and LOWS

LOW L1 south of southern cooks is moving off to southeast with
southerly sell in its wake.

Hight H1 has been crossing northern NZ past few days and is expected
to travel to the Northeast towards Pitcairn Island.

LOW L2 is expected to form in a trough crossing NZ on Monday/Tuesday
around then it should shoot off to the east

LOW L3 is expected to remain slow-moving in Tasman Sea until mid-week
then move northeast to 39S and weaken over the weekend to north of New
Zealand.

High H2 starts the week over Victoria and by mid-week is over
Tasmania, then it should travel east across the south Tasman Sea and
expand as a ridge over NZ this weekend, This H3 offers a good pattern
for people wanting to sail north from NZ>

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If you would like more details about your voyage, then check
metbob.com to see what I offer.
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Weathergram archive (with translator) is at
weathergram.blogspot.co.nz.
Contact is bob@metbob.com or text 64277762212.
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