Bobgram

Bob McDavitt's ideas for sailing around the South Pacific.
Disclaimer: Weather is a mix of pattern and chaos; these ideas are
from the patterned world.
Compiled Sunday 10 November 2024

COP29

The 29th session of the Conference of the Parties to the United
Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change is being held from11 to
22 November at BAKU Stadium in Azerbaijan.

COP meetings are where governments assess global efforts to advance
the Paris Agreement attempting to limit global warming to 1.5°C as
informed by the latest science. At COPs, world leaders come together
to measure progress and negotiate the best ways to address climate
change. There are now 198 Parties (197 countries plus the European
Union) to the Convention, constituting near universal membership.
A graph at carbonbrief.org shows that the world leaders have a tough
job, since the past 13 months have all been above that 1.5degree
threshold.
Considering the downpours that the northern hemisphere has been
delivering over recent weeks it seems that the atmosphere seems to
have access to extra energy to feed the storms.


TROPICS


Typhoon Kong-rey drenched coastal areas of East China and southern
Japan after leaving two people dead in Taiwan. In its wake are TORAJI
and MAN-YI
• The far northern Philippines was lashed by Category-3 Typhoon
Yinxing, which was the third such storm to strike Luzon Island in less
than a month.
• Jamaica, the Cayman Islands and western Cuba were lashed by
strengthening Hurricane Rafael,
*Tropical Storm Patty formed briefly near the Azores.

WEATHER ZONE
The wind accumulation shows calm zones along 30 to 35S, showing the
main position of the subtropical ridge. Further north there is a
squash zone of enhanced trade winds from the Cooks to Tonga along
around 18S. Avoid.
The South Pacific Convergence zone extends from Solomons to Samoa and
then southeast to Southern Cook Islands. It occasionally shifts south
across Fiji and Tonga.
The MJO is now in the Indian Ocean, and that means the SPCZ should
weaken over the week or two. However, SPCZ is expected to shift south
over Tonga this weekend and maybe form a tropical Low there around 20
November, perhaps.
HIGHS and LOWS
There is a Low L1 east of NZ and well south of Tahiti moving slowly
off to the SE
There is a left-over trough south of 30S and northeast of Northland
tonight.
This lingers there as a HIGH H1 now in the Tasman Sea travels east
across central New Zealand this week and then off to the northeast.
Heat trough over inland Australia is expected to form a deepening LOW
L2off Sydney on Tuesday and this should then travel southeast across
southern NZ late in the week, bringing another dose of heavy rain to
Southern Alps.
Between H1 and L2 a strong NE flow should form south of 30S with a
warm front crossing Northland on Friday and Saturday. Avoid.
There maybe a LOW forming near Northland after that front bring
unsettled weather there early next week. This is still uncertain but
might be worth avoiding getting south of 30S to NZ from 17 to 18
November.
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