Bobgram 11 May

Bob McDavitt's ideas for sailing around the South Pacific.
Disclaimer: Weather is a mix of pattern and chaos; these ideas are
from the patterned world.
Compiled 11 May 2025
A review of the cyclone season

We can compare the timing of these cyclones with the active phases of
the MJO on the South Pacific shown here in Blue.

The 2024–25 South Pacific cyclone season was one of the least active
seasons on record within the South Pacific Ocean to the east of 160°E.
Just four named storms formed (compared with an average of 7). None
intensified into severe tropical cyclones, the first such failure
since the 2008–09 season.

TROPICS
A second quiet week for tropical cyclones world-wide.

WEATHER ZONES

Rain accumulation this week from Windy.com shows well defined SPCZ and
blobs of rain with L1
The wind accumulation shows a windy zone attached to L1 as it moves
out of the tropics. Only patches of wind in the Tasman but a period NW
winds late in the week for eastern North Island.

LOWS and HIGHS
Low L1 has formed tonight just south of Fiji with an active wind and
rain band over Minerva and Tonga tonight and Monday then moving ESE to
reach Southern Cooks on their local Monday and Tuesday. Stay put for
that.

A FRONT with strong westerly winds is crossing south end of NZ on
Monday and then travelling east to merge with L1. This gives a SW
flow over NZ on Monday and a weakening southerly on Wednesday.
Large HIGH H1 in Tasman Sea expected to stay put until mid-week then
cross central NZ on Wednesday and travel off to the east from
Thursday/

The Trough following this HIGH should reach Tasmania on Wednesday and
NZ on Sat/Sun as a well-formed Low.
HIGH H2 in Aussie Bight by mid-week is expected to spread east onto
Melbourne area this weekend.

Gulf of Panama: Maybe some useful northerly winds on local Monday
else light winds or southerly winds. Health current going to SW.
6N to 2N: Showery, South to SW winds. Variable currents
2N to Galapagos: Winds from SE and sea drifting to the WNW.
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