Bobgram 29 June 20025

Bob McDavitt's ideas for sailing around the South Pacific.
Disclaimer: Weather is a mix of pattern and chaos; these ideas are
from the patterned world.
Compiled 29 June 2025
WMO report on state of our planet in 2024
https://wmo.int/sites/default/files/2025-03/WMO-1368-2024_en.pdf
2024 was 1.55C above the 1850-1900 average and the warmest year in the
175-year observational record, beating the previous record set only
the year before.
One year over 1.5C does not indicate that the long-term temperature
goals of the Paris Agreement are out of reach but is a wake-up call.
The Antarctic sea ice reached the second-lowest extent ever recorded.

The observed ocean heat content reached a new record high. It has
increased by 16ZJ (ZITAJOULES) since last year. O if only we could
harness this. the human annual world energy consumption is measured to
be around 0.5ZJ

In 2024, the global mean sea level reached a record high in the
satellite record (from 1993 to present).

The minimum daily extent of sea-ice in the Antarctic region in 2024
was 1.99 million km2 on 20 February, which tied for the second lowest
minimum in the satellite era and marked the third consecutive year
that minimum Antarctic sea-ice extent dropped below 2 million km2.

There were droughts and floods but no obvious pattern in the rain.


TROPICS
The latest cyclone activity report is at zoom.earth and
tropic.ssec.wisc.edu and Tropical Cyclone Potential is from
http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/products/ocean/tropical/tcfp/

There are two tropical depressions tonight near the Mexican coast, TD6
on the west and TD2 on the east.
Super Hurricane Erick weakened to a Category-3 storm just before
making landfall on Mexico's Oaxaca state, killing one person in flash
flooding. Erick was the first storm on record of Category-3 force or
greater to strike Mexico before July.
. Tropical Storm Andrea, the first named storm of the Atlantic
hurricane season, formed briefly in the mid-Atlantic.
. Tropical Storm Sepat lost force before its remnants brushed the Jap

WEATHER ZONES
Weather Zones Mid-week GFS model showing isobars, winds, waves
(purple), rain (red), STR (Subtropical Ridge), SPCZ (South Pacific
Convergence Zone) CZ (Convergence Zone)



Rain accumulation this week from Windy.com shows a well-defined South
Pacific Convergence zone over southern parts of French Polynesia.
Also, some heavy rain for Northland to Bay of Plenty and about coast
new South Wales from L2. And a rebuilding pf the SPCZ over Solomon
Islands

Wind accumulation this week from Windy.com shows a weak squash zone in
the tropics over Niue to Southern Cooks and a strong one over southern
Fresch Polynesia. Lows also have strong to gale winds around them.

LOWS and HIGHS
LOW L1 tonight is south of Chatham Islands and moving off to the east
along 45S to 40S and expected to be south of 155W by end of the week
HIGH H1 should briefly cross NZ on Tuesday and then move off to the
east quickly followed by NE winds between it and L2. Only quick yachts
can use this window to get from Northland to the tropics.
Low L2 is an east coast low deepening rapidly off coastal New South
Wales on Tuesday . Avoid the Tasman this week. Associated trough
should cross NZ on Friday.
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