Bobgram

Bob McDavitt's ideas for sailing around the South Pacific.
Disclaimer: Weather is a mix of pattern and chaos; these ideas are
from the patterned world.
Compiled 17 August 2025
Are the Oceans now struggling to store extra earth heating?

See climatereanalyzer.org/clim/sst_daily/
Since July 2023 it is as if the global averaged sea temperature has
jumped into a new regime. We still cannot tell if this is a
fundamental change that may adversely energise further weather events.
In the first half of August the rise in daily global has been
extremely rapid.
Until now, 90 per cent of the excess heat created by greenhouse gas
emissions has been drawn down into the ocean. Under this new regime it
seems that this capacity for heat absorption is being lost. SO where
will the extra heat now get stored?

The Cape Reinga region over Far North New Zealand is having a winter
heatwave. However, Hauraki Gulf is just slightly above normal
See www.moanaproject.org/marine-heatwave-forecast
The rain accumulation for year to date shows that it has been wetter
than normal in northern NZ --- with the "wetter" kicking in around 21
April, and % excess much more in Auckland than around Kerikeri.
See Visual crossing data

TROPICS
. Southern Taiwan was lashed by Category-2 Typhoon Podul, which
weakened over the island before striking China's Fujian and Guangdong
provinces.
. Mexico's central Pacific coast was brushed by passing Tropical Storm
Ivo.
. Tropical Storm Awo formed briefly near Seychelles.
. Hurricane Erin is strengthening to Category-3 force north of Puerto
Rico.


WEATHER ZONES
Rain accumulation this week from Windy.com below shows well defined
SPCZ between Solomon Islands and Samo/Niue and a passing trough over
French Polynesia. Also, an area of rain along eastern seaboard of
Australia in onshore winds.

Wind accumulation from windy.com below shows a burst of strong
southerly winds over NZ in the wake of L1. Also, generally OK ailing
winds in the tropics.

LOWS and HIGHS
Low L1 is moving off to the east of New Zealand.
H1 starts off in Australian Bight and travel east along 45S across
South Tasman Sea mid-week and onto NZ next weekend.
L2 is expected to follow H1
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