Bob McDavitt's ideas for sailing around the South Pacific.
Disclaimer: Weather is a mix of pattern and chaos; these ideas are from the
patterned world.
Compiled 22 Feb 2026
Climate change as seen by NEMA (National Emergency Management Agency, NZ)
That storm referred to in my edition last week triggered four states of
emergency in New Zealand. These are listed on the Civil Defence website at
civildefence.govt.nz/emergency-events/previous-emergencies/declared-states-o
f-emergency
Here is a plot of the states of emergency issued in NZ for the past 24 years
This image has an empty alt attribute; its file name is image-9.jpg
Last week I mentioned at storm in February 2004 -it triggered 5 states of
emergency
The storm we had last week triggered 4 states of emergency (1 more the day
after the above table was downloaded). The trend is obvious , especially
since 2019 .
TROPICS
HORACIO is now in mid-southern-Ocean a week after GEZANI.
After leaving 50 people dead while lashing northern Madagascar during the
previous week as one of the strongest on record in the region, Cyclone
Gezani regained force and brushed far southern Mozambique, knocking out
power and killing an additional four in flash floods and high winds.
Madagascar was spared a second strike as the still potent storm abruptly
veered southward just before reaching the island's southern coast
.WEATHER ZONES
This week we see a return to a more zonal flow south of 30S with HIGH H1 and
HIGH H2 traveling east along 40S as Lows L1 and L2 travel southeast between
the Highs. The trough and fronts attached to L2 are expected to cross NZ on
Thursday and Friday.
Wind accumulation from windy.com above shows the path of wind accompanying
L4.
For Australia, there is a monsoonal low L5 over central area bringing
widespread heavy rain to the interior and feeding moisture to rain clouds
along central east coast.
For the South Pacific, the SPCZ is rather weak and disjointed. Even so
tropica low L3 is expected to form between Vanuatu and Fiji mid -week and
then move off to the SE. Then L4 is expected to deepen near Vanuatu by
Friday. future uncertain. It may have damaging winds by this weekend. Avoid.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
If you would like more details about your voyage, check metbob.com
Or Facebook at /www.facebook.com/metbobnz/
Weathergram with graphics is at metbob.wordpress.com
(subscribe/unsubscribe at bottom).
Weathergram archive (with translator) is at weathergram.blogspot.co.nz.
Contact is bob@metbob.com or text 64277762212.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
22 February 2026
15 February 2026
Bobgram
Bob McDavitt's ideas for sailing around the South Pacific.
Disclaimer: Weather is a mix of pattern and chaos; these ideas are from the patterned world.
Compiled 15 Feb 2026
More about the outgoing La Nina
A good way to see how quickly this LA NINA episode is relaxing, and may soon be trending to an EL NINO
is to look at the sea temperatures at depth, as shown on the TAO website at www.pmel.noaa.gov/tao/drupal/disdel/ .
This shows that the -2C pool just below the surface near 100W in January has disappeared in February.
Also the +2 isotherm has nosed from 160W to 140W during the past month.
When the +2 isotherm rises to the surface neat 100W we will be moving into EL NINO conditions.
Meantime we can expect a few months with average Tradewinds and with Highs travelling along a subtropical ridge averaging between 30 and 40S .
Early this week we have a LOW deepening just southeast of central NZ as shown here:
Compare that Low with the one which flooded Tararua /Manawatu almost exactly 24 years ago in February 2004:
TROPICS
The latest cyclone activity report is at zoom.earth and tropic.ssec.wisc.edu and Tropical Cyclone Potential is from http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/products/ocean/tropical/tcfp/
GEZANI is expected to continue to linger near the south of Madagascar next few days.
At least 31 people were killed by high winds and flooding when Category-2 Cyclone Gezani caused extensive damage in northern Madagascar.
. Cyclone Mitchell uprooted trees and knocked down street signs as it skirted northwestern Australia.
.WEATHER ZONES
Rain accumulation this week from Windy.com below shows a South Pacific convergence Zone
that is active over the central Coral Sea and New Caledonia and another convergence zone
active over Southern Cooks and Austral Islands.
LOWS
L1 is southeast of central NZ tonight with multiple damage reports.
L2 is expected swing SE from near Fiji to east of the North Island by midweek and mainly miss NZ.
L3 is expected to form south of Tahiti and travel off to the south
Wind accumulation from windy.com above shows the path of wind accompanying L1 and L2.
Highs
High H1 stays quasi-stationary well south of Tahiti, blocking the Lows.
High H2 is expected to travel east along 40S, crossing Victoria /New South Wales on Wednesday /Thursday
and then central New Zealand slowly this weekend into mid of next week.
I think we may get an opportunity for sailing from Australia to NZ with this High, after several weeks of no-go.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
If you would like more details about your voyage, check metbob.com
Or Facebook at /www.facebook.com/metbobnz/
Weathergram with graphics is at metbob.wordpress.com
(subscribe/unsubscribe at bottom).
Weathergram archive (with translator) is at weathergram.blogspot.co.nz.
Contact is bob@metbob.com or text 64277762212.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
Disclaimer: Weather is a mix of pattern and chaos; these ideas are from the patterned world.
Compiled 15 Feb 2026
More about the outgoing La Nina
A good way to see how quickly this LA NINA episode is relaxing, and may soon be trending to an EL NINO
is to look at the sea temperatures at depth, as shown on the TAO website at www.pmel.noaa.gov/tao/drupal/disdel/ .
This shows that the -2C pool just below the surface near 100W in January has disappeared in February.
Also the +2 isotherm has nosed from 160W to 140W during the past month.
When the +2 isotherm rises to the surface neat 100W we will be moving into EL NINO conditions.
Meantime we can expect a few months with average Tradewinds and with Highs travelling along a subtropical ridge averaging between 30 and 40S .
Early this week we have a LOW deepening just southeast of central NZ as shown here:
Compare that Low with the one which flooded Tararua /Manawatu almost exactly 24 years ago in February 2004:
TROPICS
The latest cyclone activity report is at zoom.earth and tropic.ssec.wisc.edu and Tropical Cyclone Potential is from http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/products/ocean/tropical/tcfp/
GEZANI is expected to continue to linger near the south of Madagascar next few days.
At least 31 people were killed by high winds and flooding when Category-2 Cyclone Gezani caused extensive damage in northern Madagascar.
. Cyclone Mitchell uprooted trees and knocked down street signs as it skirted northwestern Australia.
.WEATHER ZONES
Rain accumulation this week from Windy.com below shows a South Pacific convergence Zone
that is active over the central Coral Sea and New Caledonia and another convergence zone
active over Southern Cooks and Austral Islands.
LOWS
L1 is southeast of central NZ tonight with multiple damage reports.
L2 is expected swing SE from near Fiji to east of the North Island by midweek and mainly miss NZ.
L3 is expected to form south of Tahiti and travel off to the south
Wind accumulation from windy.com above shows the path of wind accompanying L1 and L2.
Highs
High H1 stays quasi-stationary well south of Tahiti, blocking the Lows.
High H2 is expected to travel east along 40S, crossing Victoria /New South Wales on Wednesday /Thursday
and then central New Zealand slowly this weekend into mid of next week.
I think we may get an opportunity for sailing from Australia to NZ with this High, after several weeks of no-go.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
If you would like more details about your voyage, check metbob.com
Or Facebook at /www.facebook.com/metbobnz/
Weathergram with graphics is at metbob.wordpress.com
(subscribe/unsubscribe at bottom).
Weathergram archive (with translator) is at weathergram.blogspot.co.nz.
Contact is bob@metbob.com or text 64277762212.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
08 February 2026
Bobgram
Bob McDavitt's ideas for sailing around the South Pacific.
Disclaimer: Weather is a mix of pattern and chaos; these ideas are from the
patterned world.
Compiled 08 Feb 2026
State of the La Nina (adapted from bom.gov.au)
• This weak La Nina episode continues to relax.
One way of measuring it is by looking at the sea surface temperatures in the
central tropical Pacific.
After being in La Nina territory since last October this is now in neutral
territory
The trend is for a further relaxing of La Nina in the next few weeks.
This means that Tradewinds are becoming more reliable , and the subtropical
ridge is also becoming well established mainly between 30S and 40S.
• Another parameter to watch is the 30-day Southern Oscillation Index
(SOI) based of the baro readings at Tahiti and Derwin.
This is now is +10.3, which is above the La Niña threshold of +7. It may be
affected by a recent series of seasonal tropical lows , and this may be
masking things.
• All models indicate a continued warming in the tropical Pacific with
a neutral ENSO state favoured through to at least late autumn
TROPICS
Cyclone Fytia left at least three people dead in flooding and high winds as
the Category-2 storm passed over Madagascar.
GEZANI is expected to make landfall over Madagascar next few days.
• Minimal Tropical Storm Penha raked parts of the southern Philippines.
• An unnamed tropical low passed between Fiji and Vanuatu.
•WEATHER ZONES
Rain accumulation this week from Windy.com shows a South Pacific convergence
Zone that is active over the northern Coral Sea, Vanuatu and then south of
Fiji, then less active east of the date line.
Wind accumulation from windy.com shows the path of wind accompanying
Cyclone MITCHELL over Western Australia.
Highs and LOWS
There is a series of tropical lows with L1 and L2 shown on the Wednesday
map. L2 is expected to develop and travel southeast maybe reaching the
north Island on Friday 13.
A large frontal trough now in the Australian Bight is expected to reach
Tasmania by Wednesday and then cross NZ on Friday 13th and combine with L2.
A short-lived trough and front is expected to travel across the Lord Howe
area on Tuesday and Wednesday and then fade--- as shown as L3 on the map.
The remains of cyclone MITCHELL may linger a few days this week over western
Australia.
Highs H1 and H2 flank the east and west wings of this week's weather map.
High H1 gave New Zealand a mainly settled long weekend (Friday was our
Waitangi Day).
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
If you would like more details about your voyage, check metbob.com
Or Facebook at /www.facebook.com/metbobnz/
Weathergram with graphics is at metbob.wordpress.com
(subscribe/unsubscribe at bottom).
Weathergram archive (with translator) is at weathergram.blogspot.co.nz.
Contact is bob@metbob.com or text 64277762212.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
Disclaimer: Weather is a mix of pattern and chaos; these ideas are from the
patterned world.
Compiled 08 Feb 2026
State of the La Nina (adapted from bom.gov.au)
• This weak La Nina episode continues to relax.
One way of measuring it is by looking at the sea surface temperatures in the
central tropical Pacific.
After being in La Nina territory since last October this is now in neutral
territory
The trend is for a further relaxing of La Nina in the next few weeks.
This means that Tradewinds are becoming more reliable , and the subtropical
ridge is also becoming well established mainly between 30S and 40S.
• Another parameter to watch is the 30-day Southern Oscillation Index
(SOI) based of the baro readings at Tahiti and Derwin.
This is now is +10.3, which is above the La Niña threshold of +7. It may be
affected by a recent series of seasonal tropical lows , and this may be
masking things.
• All models indicate a continued warming in the tropical Pacific with
a neutral ENSO state favoured through to at least late autumn
TROPICS
Cyclone Fytia left at least three people dead in flooding and high winds as
the Category-2 storm passed over Madagascar.
GEZANI is expected to make landfall over Madagascar next few days.
• Minimal Tropical Storm Penha raked parts of the southern Philippines.
• An unnamed tropical low passed between Fiji and Vanuatu.
•WEATHER ZONES
Rain accumulation this week from Windy.com shows a South Pacific convergence
Zone that is active over the northern Coral Sea, Vanuatu and then south of
Fiji, then less active east of the date line.
Wind accumulation from windy.com shows the path of wind accompanying
Cyclone MITCHELL over Western Australia.
Highs and LOWS
There is a series of tropical lows with L1 and L2 shown on the Wednesday
map. L2 is expected to develop and travel southeast maybe reaching the
north Island on Friday 13.
A large frontal trough now in the Australian Bight is expected to reach
Tasmania by Wednesday and then cross NZ on Friday 13th and combine with L2.
A short-lived trough and front is expected to travel across the Lord Howe
area on Tuesday and Wednesday and then fade--- as shown as L3 on the map.
The remains of cyclone MITCHELL may linger a few days this week over western
Australia.
Highs H1 and H2 flank the east and west wings of this week's weather map.
High H1 gave New Zealand a mainly settled long weekend (Friday was our
Waitangi Day).
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
If you would like more details about your voyage, check metbob.com
Or Facebook at /www.facebook.com/metbobnz/
Weathergram with graphics is at metbob.wordpress.com
(subscribe/unsubscribe at bottom).
Weathergram archive (with translator) is at weathergram.blogspot.co.nz.
Contact is bob@metbob.com or text 64277762212.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
01 February 2026
Bobgram
Bob McDavitt's ideas for sailing around the South Pacific.
Disclaimer: Weather is a mix of pattern and chaos; these ideas are from the
patterned world.
Compiled 01 Feb 2026
A review of last month's weather
Here is a link to a YouTube clip giving an animated loop of the isobars and
streamlines
For the month of January is at youtu.be/dF205bOjbXI
Australia heatwaves continue with daily records over 48C last week.
New Zealand had damaging rains on Wed 21/Thursday 22 January
The 500hPa heights and anomalies shows that prolonged upper low over Tasman
sea late in the month
From http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/intraseasonal/z500_sh_anim.shtml
Sea Surface temperature anomalies from psl.noaa.gov/map/clim/sst.shtml
The La Nina cool waters over eastern equatorial Pacific continue to relax.
The marine heat wave to northeast of New Zealand has intensified and spread
further east. Its northern edge is now touching Tongs.
Average isobars for past month From
http://www.psl.noaa.gov/map/images/fnl/slp_30b.fnl.html
There is now a monsoonal low over central Australia. The subtropical ridge
in January is well south, much the same as in December. The colour scheme
for January is slightly different.
The low pressure band over the Aleutian Islands has deepened.
The anomaly pressure pattern for December shows the large low breeding area
over New Zealand and now also over Australia.
And the 1010hPa isobar in the South Pacific has drifted south.
TROPICS
. Former Tropical storm Luana strengthened and maintained its appearance for
around 400 miles a sit moved inland across Australia.
. Tropical storm Ewetse caused little impact when it passed over
Madagascar.
. Tropical cyclone Fytia is now moving Southeast away from Madagascar
. An unnamed tropical Low skirted near New Caledonia last week,
weakened by disruptive winds aloft.
WEATHER ZONES
Rain accumulation this week from Windy.com above shows a well -defined
South Pacific convergence. Intense rain associated with Tropical low L1 is
expected over Tonga next few days.
Wind accumulation from windy.com above shows bursts of wind associated with
Lows L1 and L2.
Highs and LOWS
A tropical Low L1 near Tonga is expected to linger in the Niue area for a
few days and then move south to southeast. This Low may help remove a lot of
energy from the SPCZ.
A trough is forecast to cross New Zealand on Monday and Tuesday is expected
to develop a low L2 passing across Cook Strait on Tuesday night. L2 then
moves off to the east, faster than L1. They might merge late in the week.
HIGH H1 well to southeast of Tahiti is expected to move off to the east.
HIGH H2 is forecast to cross Tasmania on Monday and then central New Zealand
on Thursday with some of it lingering over north Tasman until Sunday.
Another tropical cyclone may brew off the northwest coast of Australia late
this week.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
If you would like more details about your voyage, check metbob.com
Or Facebook at /www.facebook.com/metbobnz/
Weathergram with graphics is at metbob.wordpress.com
(subscribe/unsubscribe at bottom).
Weathergram archive (with translator) is at weathergram.blogspot.co.nz.
Contact is bob@metbob.com or text 64277762212.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
Disclaimer: Weather is a mix of pattern and chaos; these ideas are from the
patterned world.
Compiled 01 Feb 2026
A review of last month's weather
Here is a link to a YouTube clip giving an animated loop of the isobars and
streamlines
For the month of January is at youtu.be/dF205bOjbXI
Australia heatwaves continue with daily records over 48C last week.
New Zealand had damaging rains on Wed 21/Thursday 22 January
The 500hPa heights and anomalies shows that prolonged upper low over Tasman
sea late in the month
From http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/intraseasonal/z500_sh_anim.shtml
Sea Surface temperature anomalies from psl.noaa.gov/map/clim/sst.shtml
The La Nina cool waters over eastern equatorial Pacific continue to relax.
The marine heat wave to northeast of New Zealand has intensified and spread
further east. Its northern edge is now touching Tongs.
Average isobars for past month From
http://www.psl.noaa.gov/map/images/fnl/slp_30b.fnl.html
There is now a monsoonal low over central Australia. The subtropical ridge
in January is well south, much the same as in December. The colour scheme
for January is slightly different.
The low pressure band over the Aleutian Islands has deepened.
The anomaly pressure pattern for December shows the large low breeding area
over New Zealand and now also over Australia.
And the 1010hPa isobar in the South Pacific has drifted south.
TROPICS
. Former Tropical storm Luana strengthened and maintained its appearance for
around 400 miles a sit moved inland across Australia.
. Tropical storm Ewetse caused little impact when it passed over
Madagascar.
. Tropical cyclone Fytia is now moving Southeast away from Madagascar
. An unnamed tropical Low skirted near New Caledonia last week,
weakened by disruptive winds aloft.
WEATHER ZONES
Rain accumulation this week from Windy.com above shows a well -defined
South Pacific convergence. Intense rain associated with Tropical low L1 is
expected over Tonga next few days.
Wind accumulation from windy.com above shows bursts of wind associated with
Lows L1 and L2.
Highs and LOWS
A tropical Low L1 near Tonga is expected to linger in the Niue area for a
few days and then move south to southeast. This Low may help remove a lot of
energy from the SPCZ.
A trough is forecast to cross New Zealand on Monday and Tuesday is expected
to develop a low L2 passing across Cook Strait on Tuesday night. L2 then
moves off to the east, faster than L1. They might merge late in the week.
HIGH H1 well to southeast of Tahiti is expected to move off to the east.
HIGH H2 is forecast to cross Tasmania on Monday and then central New Zealand
on Thursday with some of it lingering over north Tasman until Sunday.
Another tropical cyclone may brew off the northwest coast of Australia late
this week.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
If you would like more details about your voyage, check metbob.com
Or Facebook at /www.facebook.com/metbobnz/
Weathergram with graphics is at metbob.wordpress.com
(subscribe/unsubscribe at bottom).
Weathergram archive (with translator) is at weathergram.blogspot.co.nz.
Contact is bob@metbob.com or text 64277762212.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
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