Bobgram

Bob McDavitt's ideas for sailing around the South Pacific.
Disclaimer: Weather is a mix of pattern and chaos; these ideas are from the
patterned world.
Compiled 16 Nov 2025

TROPICS


Nothing on the map tonight, but models are watching clouds gathering in
Timor Sea and something might form from that near Darwin late this week.



In the past week.
. Typhoon Kalmaegi left 188 people dead in record flooding across the
central Philippines, and then struck storm-weary central Vietnam as a
Category 4 storm, tearing roofs off homes and killing five more.
. Kalmaegi was quickly followed by Typhoon Fungwong, which killed 27 people
in northern Philippine floods. It later caused severe flooding across Taiwan
as a tropical storm.


WEATHER ZONES


Rain accumulation this week from Windy.com below shows well defined and
increasingly active SPCZ expanding southwards. Also, a possible cyclone near
Darwin late this week.

Wind accumulation from windy.com above shows the possible path of possible
tropical cyclone late this week near Darwin. Also, the HIGH east of NZ, the
trough area between New Caledonia and Northland, and the squash zone of
enhanced winds between these two systems.


LOWS and HIGHS
HIGH H1 east of NZ over 1032 is quasi stationary near 40S 160W with a rim of
enhanced winds (squash zone) on its northern to western edge.
Left of the squash zone is a trough region, especially between the tropic
and Northland. A low may form in this area early next week.
Low L1 belongs to a front which is tonight in the mid Tasman sea and on
Monday/Tuesday may stretch from New Caledonia to the South Island and then
fade over the North Island.
High H2 starts off in Australian Bight and by Wednesday is in mid Tasman
Sea. Later in the week it may stall over central New Zealand.

HIGH H2 is expected to travel across Aussie Bight early this week and then
go northeast from New South Wales to northern NZ by the weekend with a
westerly flow on its southern side.
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