Bobgram 23 March

Bob McDavitt's ideas for sailing around the South Pacific.
Disclaimer: Weather is a mix of pattern and chaos; these ideas are
from the patterned world.
Compiled 23 March 2025

WMD

Today is the 75th World Meteorological day

On 23 March each year all meteorologists around the world commemorate
the commencement of WMO on this date in 1950.

The weather does NOT acknowledge any national boundaries and to gather
a working knowledge of what's happening we need observations from all
nations. Hence the WMO is needed to settle standards of observation
and share all weather data for our mutual benefit.

It has become a day whereby WMO can educate us all about important
matters. This year's theme is "Closing the early warning gap
together".

Over the past decade Governments around the word have been working on
how to get severe weather warnings enacted as quick and effectively as
possible. Even though the number intensity and cost of severe weather
events has been trending UP, the number of fatalities has been much
the same or even falling

WMO is now at the halfway mark of their Early Warnings for All
initiative, and significant progress has been made in saving lives,
protecting livelihoods, and strengthening community resilience. As
climate risks escalate, the urgency of the initiative continues to
grow.


These numbers show where we are

55%

As of 2024, 108 countries report having some capacity for multi-hazard
early warning systems, more than double the 52 countries in 2015.

Vulnerable Nations Progress

The least developed countries have shown the most significant
improvements, with landlocked developing countries and small island
developing states also surpassing the global rate.

+39%

The global average score for the comprehensiveness of multi-hazard
early warning systems has risen from 0.35 to 0.49, an increase of 39%.

Here is a link to a You Tube video on Severe Weather Warnings

https://youtu.be/35FvB7lst6o

"EVERY DOLLAR SPENT ON EARLY WARNING SAVES ON AVERAGE TEN DOLLARS IN
AVOIDABLE LOSSES."

TROPICS
. Tropical Storm Jude: After leaving at least nine people dead in
Mozambique and Malawi during the previous week, it drifted back over
the Mozambique Channel, where near-record high sea surface
temperatures fueled its regrowth. Jude then drenched southern
Madagascar, becoming the third tropical cyclone to rake the same
region so far this year.

. An unnamed tropical storm spun up near Australia's remote Cocos
Islands Indian Ocean territory.

WEATHER ZONES

Rain accumulation this week from Windy.com shows an intense SPCZ and
the heavy rain especially from NW Australia to Queensland. Yes, we
have the extra oomph of a MJO over northern Australia this week and
YES, it is expected to cross the Pacific over the following two weeks.

Wind accumulation this week from Windy.com
The wind accumulation shows a white trail with the Low in the Indian
Ocean. There is also extra wind and swell associated with the low near
the Kermadecs.

LOWS and HIGHS

Low L1 is expected to form just east of the Kermadecs by Tuesday and
then travel southeast this week

Hights H1, H2 and H3 are located between 40 and 45S and by mid-week
should be near 145W, 160E and 120E -consistent with a steady "wave 4"
around the planet.

The trough between Highs 2 and 3 is expected to cross NZ on Thursday
with some brief rain and a one-day southerly.

The SAM index/AAO index is positive and its trend this week is to
remain positive, so the fronts and SW wind bursts are not expected to
get far north this week.



High H1 in Tasman Sea is expected this week to travel across NZ on
Wednesday and Thursday. Before this there is a weak cold front/SW
change on Monday and Tuesday, but this is expected to weaken.

Panama Gulf to Galapagos: Good NE winds for starters and to 5N then OK
easterly or light winds and a good tail current to Galapagos.
Scattered tropical showers.

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