Bob McDavitt's ideas for sailing weather around the South pacific

20 October 2008

BOBGRAM7 SPECIAL issued 21 Oct 2008

Bob McDavitt's ideas for sailing around the South Pacific.
Disclaimer: Weather is a mix of pattern and chaos, these ideas come from
the patterned world of weather maps, so please fine-tune to your place.
Dates below are given in UTC unless otherwise stated.

TONGA to NZ update

Computer models are now converging with their output handling the LOW
that is now forming in the Tasman Sea. It is expected to deepen as it
crosses northern NZ on Friday and east of the North Island on Saturday.
There is a high likelihood of westerly gales at 30S from about Norfolk
to Kermadecs on Sat 25th.

SO if you are trying to get to 30S by 24 Oct as I suggested in my last
Weathergram then please ABORT. If you know someone who has sailed off
please pass this on. That strategy for getting from Tonga to NZ WORKS
WITH FRONTS but it DOESN'T WORK when fronts have LOWS of this size
attached to them. Time now to return to port and await the next
window... the front associated with this low is expected to clear off
southern Tonga on Mon 27 Oct so next window may well be Tuesday 29 Oct.

The terms used are more fully explained in the METSERVICE Yacht Pack.
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