Issued 7 Dec 2008
Bob McDavitt's ideas for sailing around the South Pacific.
Disclaimer: Weather is a mix of pattern and chaos, these ideas come from
the patterned world of weather maps, so please fine-tune to your place.
Dates below are given in UTC unless otherwise stated.
Last week saw the formation of two tropical depressions in the Northern
and Southern Cooks, and there is today a gale force squash zone on the
south side of TD02F near 25S 169W ....avoid...all this is moving off to
the south. The northern and southern Cooks had the majority share of
last week's rain from TD01 and 02.
TD02 will continue to peel off to the south and a lovely easterly swell
from its squash zone should reach eastern North Island areas on Tuesday
and Wednesday to the delight of surfers.
South Pacific Convergence Zone SPCZ is slowly building in strength along
a zone from Solomons to Tuvalu to Tokelau/Samoa to the Niue/Southern
This zone is expected to drift south this week, and a new TD ... worth
avoiding... should form near Tuvalu on Tuesday and travel south between
Vanuatu and Fiji on Wednesday and Thursday then SE to the SE of Fiji on
Friday and Saturday, triggering further lows to form like pearls on a
necklace along a mid-latitude trough south of Tonga during the 13-14
weekend. The S/SE wind and SE swell on the western side of this trough
may affect eastern North island on 13 Dec, ah well they need the rain so
that's all good.
Not much expected elsewhere in South Pacific tropics, mainly weak SE
winds to west of SPCZ and NE winds on its eastern side.
Subtropical ridge is hanging in there around 30S.
A procession of troughs with fronts is set to cross NZ: on Mon-Tues 8/9
Dec, Thurs-Fri 11/12 Dec and Mon-Tues 15/16 Dec. There is a tendency
for small lows to come and go on these fronts, thus focusing wind and
rain here and there.
The Highs between these troughs are brief and weak, crossing the Tasman
Sea along 35S to 30S on 8-9 Dec, 11-12, and 16+ Dec --- these tracks and
the cool southerly flows following the troughs suggest a slight swing to
El Nino for the Tasman in the seasonal weather Jazz... but it'll only
last a week or two.
HONOURABLE MENTION OF AUSTRALIA THIS WEEK:
The biggest Low in our part of the planet is forecast to cross South
Australia on Thu 11 Dec, Victoria on Friday 12, and the Tasmania/New
South Wales Area on Sat 13. Avoid.