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Bob McDavitt's ideas for sailing weather around the South pacific

23 August 2009

BOBGRAM7 issued 23 Aug 2009

WEATHERGRAM
YOTREPS
Issued 23 August 2009
Bob McDavitt's ideas for sailing around the South Pacific.
Disclaimer: Weather is a mix of pattern and chaos; these ideas come from
the patterned world of weather maps, so please fine-tune to your place.
Dates are in UTC unless otherwise stated.

Apologies for delayed sending of this email--- 'twas a server problem

TROPICS/SUBTROPICS
We start the week with TCs Bill, Hilda and Vamco in the Atlantic, NW and
NE Pac respectively. Bill should sideswipe Nova Scotia, Hilda should
fade south of Hawaii, and Vamco should wander north.
As for the South pacific - well, the main part of the South Pacific
convergence Zone SPCZ has wandered to the northern part of its zone..
from Solomons to Samoa to Southern Cooks. There should be a burst of
activity near the Southern Cooks on Monday /Tuesday UTC, and another
between Tuvalu and Samoa /Tonga on Sunday and Mon 30/31 Aug UTC.

SUBTROPICS
The High positioned in the North Tasman Sea and covering New Caledonia
today is expected to move along 30S and fade near the date line on
Wednesday, enhancing the trade winds in the Coral Sea.
Next High is expected to be stronger and larger, and should build in
the Tasman Sea near 33S on Thursday, Cross the North Island on Friday,
and
Wander east along 33S after that reaching French Polynesian longitudes
on 1/2Sep, all the while with a squash zone of enhanced trade winds on
its northern side. As it wanders east of 140W around 2 Sep, a LOW
should form on its North-western shoulder near Niue. Avoid.

TASMAN/NZ AREA
That LOW which has been hovering off the NE of NZ last few days should
wander slowly along 30S as a multi-centred feature with one of the
centres deepening at 30S near 155W or south of French Polynesia on
Wednesday, bringing them a touch of westerly winds on Wednesday and
Thursday UTC.
A front is fading over north-western NZ this evening. Next front should
move onto SW of South Island on Tuesday and North Island on Wednesday
proceeded by northerly winds and followed by a northwest flow.
On Thursday another front should cross NZ proceeded by NW winds and
followed by westerlies. This front may well have thunderstorms.
Next front is likely to reach SW of south Island late sat and cross NZ
on Sunday, preceded by NW flow and followed by a S to SW flow. This
front is probably the best of the bunch for going north but still not
ideal.

The terms used are more fully explained in the METSERVICE Yacht Pack.
More info at http://weathergram.blogspot.com
Feedback to bob.mcdavitt@metservice.com

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