Bob McDavitt's ideas for sailing weather around the South pacific

03 January 2010

BOBGRAM7 issued 4 Jan 2010

Issued 4 Jan 2010
Bob McDavitt's ideas for sailing around the South Pacific.

Disclaimer: Weather is a mix of pattern and chaos; these ideas come from
the patterned world of weather maps, so please fine-tune to your place.
Dates are in UTC unless otherwise stated.

This edition is later than normal as I've be travelling around during
past week. I'm back to normal now.

There is some sign of extra energy way out west over next week--- a Low
moving onto Australia from the Timor Sea and what may well be a Tropical
Cyclone forming in Indian Ocean near 85E around Wednesday 6 Jan.

It looks to me as if we will have another reasonably quiet week in the
South Pacific. South Pacific Convergence zone extends from Solomons to
Samoa to Southern Cooks/French Polynesia. A tropical Low may form over
Southern Cooks area around Thursday 7 Jan and move slowly southeast and
fade by Tuesday 13 Jan--- may be gale winds between this Low and the
subtropical ridge on its south side, but the systems will likely "steal
" the wind around Niue and Cooks and may produce a squally northerly
wind over French Polynesia.

Trade winds over remainder of South Pacific should be average, but from
around 9 Jan , winds should become variable around the Coral Sea and
there may be a westerly flow over Papua New Guinea and Solomons, the
start of another build-up of tropical energy.

HIGH in Tasman Sea should squeeze across northern NZ on Tuesday 5 Jan
and then move southeast to 40S / 160 to 140W on 7 - 8 Jan and then go
northeast. This high is tracking along the subtropical ridge which
extends from this High along 35/ 40S all the way to high that is at 30S
west of South America.

Next High rolling in from the Australian Bight is expected to cross
Tasmania on wed/Thu 6-7 Jan, and then cross central NZ on weekend of
9-10 Jan. People in Central NZ should plan to enjoy the outdoors this
weekend (last one was too windy with passing fronts).

A front is expected to cross NZ on wed/Thu 6-7 Jan, preceded by strong
NW flow and followed by SW winds. Next front is likely around southern
South Island on Sun 10 Jan. Avoid these winds if you can.

The terms used are more fully explained in the METSERVICE Yacht Pack.
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